Stormchaserchuck1

Well the Pacific changes conditions today. By Monday, it's full on +pdo(+pna/-epo). Models seem to have been over initializing current conditions, so let's see if that changes anything.

Stronger +PNA Low and higher ridge into Alaska.. funny. At this point, something will need to be worked out between the two (SE ridge 2nd part). They are like slowly organizing an amplified pattern slowly...

It kind of seems like models are being "lazy" in my opinion, over amplifying the energy because it can't handle the heavily amplified new pattern.. maybe the EPO area will adjust on future model runs?

Would have to suppress the SE ridge if that holds.. maybe the energy splits? Pretty wild to go SE ridge when this is dominating and -NAO too. It can happen, but something might need to be worked out.

Look at that storm! STJ amped east and west to hold its energy as a general pattern.. check

The pattern is a little more uniform though.

STJ continues to be really amplified at 98hr.

wet Could really be an amplified solution down the line. Intuition is that the SE ridge would have to get squashed with such a favorable upper latitude pattern, unless the upper latitudes change on models.

Active STJ building here Rain or snow, it's going to be a wild time period with so much energy.

What a monster pattern.

Look at how wet the STJ is.

This is why Alaska and Greenland are here!

Yeah, that's a pretty awesome look. look at the cold air wedging in

Nice, healthy -EPO and -NAO on 18z NAM at 84hr. I can see the lower latitudes fitting under this very well. Maybe the earlier piece trends. It seems for that for an EC trough/snowstorm, they always want to make it GOA low. (^That -EPO is too organized and strong for a strong, sustained SE ridge.)

Top 5-10 event as center point extremes, but everything's getting warmer so..

Look at this monster pattern.

Even the Strong Nino's have trended away from pattern.

Because of the -NAO tendency, I might expect this to trend south. It's not too late here.. can't be any later.

Really warm in the western subsurface.. +4c. If models are right and El Nino happens, it could be a sustained thing. 14-15, 15-16 comes to mind.

I think if we can get the storm in here on the 11th or before, we should be snow. The south-+PNA I wouldn't worry about, I think this a feature of the warm pattern. That -EPO is the key for this storm.

Fwiw, I don't like to see this stuff for future model trend, it seems to go to -PNA

The 12z NAM was really strong with the -PNA/SE ridge

Oct 30-Nov 15: 60 day correlation to 500mb Nov 15-30: 40-45 day correlation to 500mb Dec 1-31: 30-40 day correlation to 500mb Jan 1-31: 20-30 day correlation to 500mb Feb 1-28: 15-25 day correlation to 500mb. etc. They aren't common, as these are anomalies vs the climo-norm. Here's a graph. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding your question? I'm really impressed with the predictable lead time of D+15 in this 10mb warming to +600dm -NAO. Pretty classic.

Stratosphere is warming again. This is a pretty severe warming. There is a 10-15 day lag at this time of the year with 500mb NAO correlation. It's been a nonstop 10mb warm phase since February 15 (15-28). What's interesting is that I had another and unrelated factor which is a -NAO signal until March 19th (3.9-19): This year-to-year change has been hitting pretty hard in verification for 2 years. These are two really strong factors. If the -NAO really lifts out the 10th/11, it will say to me that it doesn't have any staying power at this time, which is what I theorized because the Pacific always had an opposite correlation to EC cold when the NAO was negative/positive-cold. I also think there is a high bust-potential, (vs model verification accuracy) that/for -NAO conditions March 11-19. I also think this gravity could slightly make our storm have colder stay power on model trend, but I don't like what happens in the Pacific after March 11. The Pacific may equalize it out, and when that High leaves Alaska, it's game over as far as our snow chances goes.

Yeah, the SE ridge is strong in spite of the Pacific.