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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder, if the subsurface configuration doesn't change, if we see a balance between +PNA's and -PNA's this winter.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA pattern, especially in the Winter time. (I guess a lot of lingering negative indicators like the -PDO, are correlating here with the central subsurface region.)
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, the ENSO subsurface (I've found to be the strongest indicator overall) is barely positive. https://ibb.co/ZWhRppb
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Last Winter the method finished at about +0.30, and the CPC NAO verification was +0.22
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Region A = +0.30, Region B = +0.13 A-B/2 = +0.08 DJFM NAO prediction +0.08 Winter NAO, 65% of the time (May-Sept) through https://ibb.co/56L3cZX If it were to end today, 50% chance for -0.46 to +0.62 (0.54SD) DJFM
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's probably true. 74* and Rain here, I don't see how this is going to get to be that strong.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's only 88F today, not really high enough to validate all this high risk stuff.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Rain today may depress the threat for severe wx tomorrow.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 and 72-73 -PNA's are the only breaks.. besides that you are like 20/22 in satellite era for stronger events (El Nino = +PNA or GOA low and La Nina = -PNA or GOA high).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Try correlating that atmospheric layer to something like the PNA or North American pattern.. you'll find it's pretty useless as an indicator. Nino 3.4 SSTs have a higher correlation to the pattern. I made a time series a while ago of ENSO variables, and those 3 sigma levels ranked pretty low. Nino 3.4 and 3 SSTs are better.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice picture. It makes me think of: Earth for sale. Build your $1,800,000 house. only 40-50% taxes. Just an out of place energy.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models shifted warmer today. I've actually never seen such a great 1-day change over the PNA region. https://ibb.co/9yw36D5 With a somewhat stronger SE flow in the medium-range, I would watch for a severe wx threat Aug 7-10, as the +PNA cold front moves through for mid-month. Models are showing this Aleutian low on the order of -300dm Days 8-10.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the El Nino broke +0.5c, we have had more +PNA's than -PNA, which for now breaks the trend of -PNA that we saw in the +ENSO years of 18-19, and 19-20. February will be a big test.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a really strong pattern. https://ibb.co/k6CWVwz You're right, it usually happens in the Winter. August will probably have a negative departure.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm pretty excited, for the time being, the -PNA trend-persistency has broken. Without constant -PNA, with the NAO in the state it's in: weak as a main indicator and oppositely correlating the Pacific, should give us plenty of storm chances. I'm also loving the El Nino/-QBO.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models have a big -AO developing https://ibb.co/Cpynb4Y ^With +PNA some of the time, it may keep us cooler https://ibb.co/RpyjfYM Here's the correlation (+) https://ibb.co/hZN7RP6 May be cooler in the UM, I wouldn't forecast a heat wave until the pattern changes.. that takes us to mid/late August.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    There wasn't a strong 500mb ridge overhead, +30-45dm, that's it. Normally, hot July's in the SW precede warmer conditions in the eastern 2/3 of the US for Aug-Sept, but I wouldn't expect it as much.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big Arctic ridge showing up on LR models. +250dm on the 12z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Logarithmic. I contest that there are just more extremes.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty. This has been the best Summer I can remember as far as sunsets go.. every night is colorful.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Would have been really cool to see this lightning storm from Ocean City. When the storms first hit yesterday, 70-100mph winds were hitting the top of my 100+ year trees at the top. I could hear some big branches crack as the trees were bending. There wasn't nearly as much wind 20-30' feet from the ground and down.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty powerful little cold front. 1st of the season. Being outside, I can't believe how cool it can get at the warmest time of the year here..
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Radar is lighting up. You would never know what is going on by only reading this board lol
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    5000 CAPE in eastern MD https://ibb.co/Zxqn6ct
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Storms firing up near Martinsburg.. LI is near -10 around DC!
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