It's been a long time since 45N has been consistently below normal. This has shown up several consecutive models runs now.
(+4 more model runs, going back to yesterday)
We have been, since 2019, reversing the Pacific and Atlantic at -0.70 correlation(record)
I think the cold showing up in western Europe in +15-16D will translate to a favorable Pacific (+PNA(not -NAO)) in 20 days.
We have had a -NAO on Christmas +4 days every year since 2017, and 7/8 years since 2014. This has been an anomaly in the midst of a very +NAO time.
Laws of waves and averages gives us a 80% chance of having NAO negative Dec 21-28 this year. This means that with a favorable Pacific, the Atlantic will be at least not be against us.
(I predict a 4-8" storm in the MA (average for Dec is 3") and a general snowy/cold time ~Dec 15-29/30.) [PNA may move more negative around Christmas when the NAO tendency dips negative]
It's been a long time since 45N has been consistently below normal. This has shown up several consecutive models runs now. (+4 more model runs, going back to yesterday) We have been, since 2019, reversing the Pacific and Atlantic at -0.70 correlation(record) I think the cold showing up in western Europe in +15-16D will translate to a favorable Pacific (+PNA(not -NAO)) in 20 days. We have had a -NAO on Christmas +4 days every year since 2017, and 7/8 years since 2014. This has been an anomaly in the midst of a very +NAO time. Laws of waves and averages gives us a 80% chance of having NAO negative Dec 21-28 this year. This means that with a favorable Pacific, the Atlantic will be at least not be against us. (I predict a 4-8" storm in the MA (average for Dec is 3") and a general snowy/cold time ~Dec 15-29/30.) [PNA may move more negative around Christmas when the NAO tendency dips negative]
