Stormchaserchuck1

SOI has some relevancy, other indicators have gotten perhaps washed out from implementation/usage over time, but I've seen where other things were acting peculiar and the SOI took its leading role. Something I also watch is the NOI and SOI* (southern hemisphere NOI), these extend pressure measurements to 30N/30S, connected with the same pressure origin region as SOI. I haven't found anything that has a clear definitive +weeks/months lead but the subsurface. In other words, if the SOI is not strongly negative now, that has already been factored into current SSTs, although perhaps you could sort out a correlation there. (We had a major +NOI in February, just like the last 6 February's.. so trends may be somewhat the same through May/June. We would need a super -NOI to break that trend. )

Just crazy that we have a -NAO, -EPO, and +PNA right now.

Obsessed with numbers is wierd. But everyone is disconnected these days...

Yeah, imagine like 3 blizzards piled up on top of each other. we would have 70" of snow! That was disheartening because even though the 3 blizzards happened within 3 weeks, they were all gone by the time the next one started. I like blowing snow too. 00's storms have been very wet-quality. I think we are progressing back to better quality-snow type. I could tell that Winter, 09-10, that we were going into a snow drought, because of the brightness.

I'm keeping track of cloudless days, Today makes 2/2. With clouds, I think there is more activity potential happening right now.

Subsurface is warming again. We are probably coasting right up to moderate. Again, after May it's fallen every time recently, but April 20.. we're probably good for a healthy event.

lol I believe! These 2-3" days of rain are followed by 1 good day to be outside, then it's dry again.

I always wished for a culmination of snow, I remember the 3 blizzards being very weak, and I could see the grass days after, because of heavy sun. If it's wet, I'd rather it not snow. We were in a dry snow drought a lot after 02-03, and it seems to be going away somewhat the last few Winter's (dry, powdery snow vs wet snow). Something I watch is the quality of the snow.

Another check, 1,2,3 pattern. https://ibb.co/bWvSWz8 A lot of volatility still in the overall pattern.

The answer to drought is more water.

I'll just say it, someone probably did mushrooms. The odds of it only over a city (looking at radar totals) are like 1/1000. If not now, then another point in time. [matter of factly lol]

I like that Nino 1+2 and the rest of ENSO have been disconnected a lot since year 2000. that spells more max ENSO potential I think

So what.. the global temp is +0.5c warmer than those years.

El Nino struggling but we did pass the "random point barrier" where it's odds increase (for example)from 1-5 to 1-100, so we'll probably have a Weak to Moderate El Nino.

These cloudless days really accelerate drought, it seems. It's like time is accelerated x1.618

Yeah, it's hitting this 2013-after timetrend and not trending -NAO anymore. Definite cap in place it seems.

-PNA is shifting today to more of a +pna pattern. The western subsurface is warming again, getting close to +4c. This is anomaly because most times in developing Nino's, the western subsurface starts cooling. Higher chance for a 2 year event as of now imo. Again, my research says maybe 4 Winter's of +PNA/el nino-correlation, taking us to 26-27.

We shift patterns in the next 1-2 days. It has the feel of March, though, where 2012 wasn't going away as an analog. I think we will be back to above average into May. I can already see signs of it on D15-16 models.

Kind of see this a lot now.. April the new May, 2 weeks ahead. I'm really curious to see how these correlations go as the El Nino matures, if it matures.

How stupid they were that the world was falling away from me, when I did not do science research, i.e. weather

-nao, -ao, -pna, which holds more weight? https://ibb.co/QYFCMkG (Nao has also been anti-thesis for about 10 years now, which means watch out for pacific patterns forming just based on opposite conditions of normal nao state.)

Nice -NAO event Days 4-15. If I know anything, we'll gravitate toward more average - above average if the -NAO holds closer

https://ibb.co/Ttxr54C That's a pretty wicked cold pattern. I wonder if the 1) -NAO will stop trending since that has been the trend since 2013. 2) If the +PNA takes over the current -WP projected (ENSO subsurface warm favors more +pna).

On really a nothing pattern too. Meaning, we could be much more favorable for warmth potentially. It's no surprise it's going to cool off soonafter. Overall tendencies are not changing any.