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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what happened last time we had a Kelvin Wave in La Nina in the Winter (Dec 20-Jan 5)
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what happened last time we had a Kelvin Wave
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS had a 588dm ridge on the West coast. 12z GEFS had nothing at all. With this subsurface-ENSO configuration, we aren't going to see a west-based -PNA in Jan and Feb, like we are seeing now in Dec. Jan 500mb could be similar to last year.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it seems like we are building up a lot of potential energy.. that's all maybe
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    >+7f hitting 180W now.. they sometimes look like this before Strong Nino's but it's December.. 12/5. atmosphere seems to consider Jan-Mar in the subsurface historically. I think I found it was like 3-1-3 before then.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Same as last year though. (Subsurface)
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Same as last year though.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Analogs for Dec 21-29 +PNA (snow) are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Analogs I am coming up with for Dec 20-24 are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950. (Dec 20-24 is rigid, make it Dec 16-29 those years). 1) Dec 21-29+PNA, 2) Dec 10-20-NAO
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Poor DT. When the PNA is negative, and has been in that phase for >20 days in December, our odds for snowfall are significantly low. Especially since it's technically not Winter yet. Dec 20-24 is our window.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO? Better yet, what happens, when that rise is associated with a positive PNA/or GOA low as I think we are going to reverse thisv. could make a window a few days before Christmas
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks. Here's the thread
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Could be a white Christmas.. as lifting out of strong -NAO and +PNA is very happy historically. Could be a 10"+
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO rebuilds while strongly negative on models 3 times. v 384hr is +400dm still. Dec 21-24 looks like the window per 18z GFS ensembles. (PNA should be positive then too.. could be a big one)
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty nice +PNA coming up Dec 19-29.. don't expect snow before then imo 1-year reverse correlation has been running <-0.50, and this one is extreme..
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    initial point actually fell apart somewhat.. as the -NAO (high pressure) dominates theory was >1.5x cold-sustained/-NAO condition in Europe/w. Atlantic was a difference maker 45N, but N. Atlantic high pressure completely filled in. I still think we will +PNA Dec19-29. Same idea pushed back a few days..
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we will probably do this here.. 1 year later (reverses)
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've had a pretty good <-0.00 correlation one year to the next ... let's see how this one does. (RNA)
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Only -NAO/wetter than average December.. 11/12 were drier than average What a cold-skew map! In 1997, when the 48-20 averages were >than 0.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    cramping my style
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Future runs will trend warmer at 500mb in the MA/SE.. maybe even alot warmer. I've seen it 100 times before. (It's 100/100).. PNA region dominates. (days 5.75-10.75)
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Someone is being stupid.. like to believe in an alternate reality- Space is thoughts. Why can't I bring them forward (because energy-weight isn't real?)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    tick tock .. that's a greater signal pick-and-choose 1/every 10, in the roll forward +2 months. 00z GFS is running out to MR/LR now too.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cliché I don't know that people see my research though, because you can probably make monetary gain from it , because it's simple work. It's a long time at this point for information blackout re: responses. (Can't do anything if you're saying STFU to my outside point from 30 minutes ago.) Not a big deal.. but it's weird. calculated and no science (the response times). it's about respect too.
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