Stormchaserchuck1

fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming

I didn't even know it was rain. We average 3" of snow in December, so that's important to remember..

Pacific pattern flip We'll start tracking snowstorms once the Pacific gets out of this -PNA+EPO.

ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.)

The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend

I wouldn't be surprised if 14-15, and 13-14, miss.

TGF Britian and France!

Oh, Earth, is your reality internal or external!

I'm thinking of the days when LES was more common. Pretty amazing how warm it gets in -NAO. We have a +500mb extreme block. 570dm up into Greenland. Greenland.. Iceland.. something is suspicious huh

What was the Winter Boston got 2"? 2018-19? or 17-18?

^+500dm -NAO.. 4 SD's I think negative.

Subsurface is +5-7f in some spots, despite a strong Nina at the surface.. pretty incredible. we are stretching waves it seems. most normal analog is 1987-reverse. (Nov 1987-Feb 1988 cold subsurface, in Mod Nino)

^much wetter than average pattern in probably +PNA Dec19-29

^they are just basing current conditions. -EPO's verify colder, unless it trends back -PNA (which is not on models now)

I always forget that you guys don't get snow randomly.

My milk expires Dec 24

I love it smooth this out backward

yummy we may hit some of the moisture from these storms (model timeframe adjustments)

I expect +PNA Dec19-29.

I wouldn't be surprised of the -EPO on LR models evolves into more of a +PNA

Stronger the +PNA.. the more south.. I think the -EPO won't be a strong, and we'll see a general Aleutian low for ~10 days starting on this day Obviously, these models correlate at 0.80-0.85, but that's the way it will adjust

This is the one I like

This person's mentally ill I have 100% brain health, and capacity, thank you Well.. at least they were in 2007...

Active STJ

Coming out of a 4 sigma -NAO, this will most likely be our snowstorm. We usually need a Low pressure in the PNA region or GOA. Does anyone know of the stats -4> -NAO in December, rising out-of, what the stats are, I know it works very well in Jan-Feb?