Stormchaserchuck1

Yeah, it's because of -PNA conditions. We don't want -PNA in the Winter. It's weird that it would correlate with a SE trough in the beginning anyway.

The pattern is definitely wet. I can envision a GOA low or +PNA coinciding with developing coastal/SE low's. I saw that trend last Winter, and it has continued until now, and going forward. -PNA's I think would be drier in the Wintertime.

LR +PNA came in stronger today, 3 contours. https://ibb.co/9pDwnWQ In October, I start looking to see if ENSO is impacting the cooler season wavelengths. In this case, it's yes, but I still think that the ENSO is acting like a Weak event.

We now have a west-based +PNA projected to show up for early October, which is more El Nino-like. https://ibb.co/k9rmC0s

-QBO increases 10mb warming, as does El Nino, so together they are a good 10mb warming signal. These Stratosphere warmings often downwell to -AO.

Not looking like we are breaking +1.6 Strong Nino ground in the North Pacific right now for sure. It's acting like a Weak El Nino, if anything at all. MEI is probably the closest measurement to what's happening in the 500mb pattern.

Going to get a yucky PDO number after the N. Pacific pattern in September. We are not doing better than splitting -PNA's and +PNA's right now. With Nino 1+2 possibly peaking, it's not like a stronger wave of El Nino is on the way, possibly.. That may depress some of the +PNA potential for the Winter, giving us something like neutral or mixed. It's still early though, I just think this pattern needs to change and it's not, and we may need a stronger variable like a re-up of El Nino. MEI at +0.3 or something is a good reflection.

This is a strong -PNA for the next 15 days.. since the El Nino developed in May, we have an even split of +PNA's and -PNA's.

The 00z NAM at 84hrs is considerably south of the 18z GFS at 90hrs. That's a strong trough moving into the NE though. Animation: https://ibb.co/rcBwKjD

Strong El Nino and Strong -QBO is about a 1/25 year type happening. Obviously, there is a chance that it doesn't connect perfectly, but it should be interesting https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Heading for a deeply negative QBO Winter.

The thing is already Cat 4. ^That model doesn't show it hitting Cat 4 for another 60 hours. We do ultimately have a +PNA trough sticking in, but it's still pretty far south at 17N, and until it reaches 20N, that's when climo takes it away. 20N/60W is a huge point for it to pass NE or SW from for hits, a NE pass goes out to sea 90% of the time.

I had 15 minutes of straight hail. Minute 15 we got to 1-1/2". https://ibb.co/hF1Qfb2 https://ibb.co/YQQKfgk

This low pressure looks amped for severe wx chances tomorrow

60W/20N is a significant landmark. Storms that pass NE of it go out to sea 90% of the time, storms that pass SW are more likely to hit land, at I think 60/40, all storms included.

I think that is probably true, like we've seen all Summer. On the other hand, -PNA's aren't sticking either.

That's a good match, raindancewx. There hasn't been a lot of 500mb flux this summer so local temps and precip hold a little more relative weight.

I'm surprised that no one mentions that quite a few 6z gfs ensembles loop Idalia back into the NE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I count 12 times Nino 4 was <-1.00 anomaly for August, since 1950. Furthermore, it just seems to be a general progression +, as a lot of the older years were colder and recent years warmer (impacts on the pattern less as an enso anomaly vs overall warming trend). 32/36 of the oldest August's were - anomaly. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina4.anom.data. It's a region just warming overall vs ENSO flux

Holds its form pretty well inland

Yeah, a lot of El Nino years became self-perpetuating at this point at the surface. If Nino 3.4 is breaking 1.6 before September starts, there is a good chance the ONI of SON will be in Strong Nino territory.

There is a pretty good warm up happening in the daily subsurface https://ibb.co/cXKwxqq As long as we don't get strong cold water anomalies beneath the western and central subsurface regions, this Winter should not evolve like years of 72-73 and 97-98.

I would like to see us in a drier pattern in the Fall, because we are in a overall soup'd up precip pattern right now (carrying over from last Winter), that is going to hit some time or another imo...

We are still in a AN precip pattern, which I would think would last for EC through the Winter. Last Winter we had a top precip season with -NAO (they are usually drier), and I think the same general pattern is carrying forward..