Stormchaserchuck1

They basically just initialize MR/LR models out... there is a good cold pattern setup coming and they apply that to the 4-6 week range.

Nov 15th, 2018 was my last big snowstorm with 5.5". no storm has topped that since. 18-19 was a Weak Nino.

Really nice signal for a +PNA Oct 14-19, it should correlate with a trough over the EC. The Oct 9 signal for the start of +PNA has been pushed back due to the low becoming more +EPO-like, I think because of the -PDO.

There is no cold water in the ENSO subsurface below Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. I've done research that shows the subsurface at -200m correlates to the N. Pacific pattern. Winter's that were Strong El Nino's that had warm patterns, had subsurface cold water in Nino 4 and Nino 3.4. You can do it from another angle, El Nino's that became La Nina's the following year, had worse Winter pattern the year of the El Nino vs El Nino's that did not become La Nina's the following year. Because there is no cold water in the subsurface of the western ENSO regions, we are less likely to have a La Nina next year. This is applicable to the Winter.

September 12th is middle of the season. It's hard to imagine we only get 2 more storms from here, unless we go in a below average pattern.

Models are really strong on +PNA starting around Oct 9th, which is generally a cooler than average pattern here. Right now GEFS has it lasting through at least Oct 15.

It looks like we're going to hit that October El Nino correlation with +PNA. I'm telling you guys, it's a pretty good correlation when ENSO subsurface is turning warm/cool, we have an associated +PNA/-PNA.

Orioles are actually pretty lucky to have #1 in the AL.. there are 3 teams with 100+ loses, 1 about to do 110+ loses.

ENSO subsurface usually correlates with the pattern. Last Winter it didn't.. still in the Spring, it looked like we were heading toward a +PNA 4-year evening-out. I just think it's veered more -PNA recently. Natural gas last Winter fell from 10.0 to 2.8 (market was surprised by the Nina conditions).

Seems like the Spring-Summer-Fall have been on schedule here not like the last 5-10+ years.

lol broad brushing Strong El Nino's as warm.. The pattern has been "meh" but there is no correlation. The globe is breaking its record by 0.5 degrees warm but that's the only thing going for it.

The way it was evolving was phase-descending.

In the old pattern October would have been well above average. We didn't max very high in the Summer, and it seems like Fall is on track for normal to below. 18z GFS ensembles have a +PNA developing about October 9th and we would likely be below average around then or after.

I wish I still lived in Mt. Shasta California. Around this time of the year the top of the mountain gets blasted with it's first major snowfall while everyone else sees rain. It's pretty easy to climb to the top. This is when I would set a tent at the top of the mountain and do mushrooms or something lol

I miss KA>

Yeah, everyone knows I'm banned from PR.

Starting about October 9th, there is a real nice signal for +PNA from 18z GFS ensembles http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html This is, as ENSO subsurface is starting to warm rapidly https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp (I have in the past correlated ENSO subsurface conditions with + and - phases of the PNA in 0-time. The +PNA being show on 18z GFS ensembles days 12-15 is broad and deep, would reflect some stronger ENSO coupling to the N. Pacific pattern, and possible subsurface strengthening.)

It was looking hopeful last Winter and Spring that we were turning to more +PNA, now it seems like -PNA is coming back...

SSTs are somewhat secondary to atmospheric conditions, and the El Nino has not yet taken control, getting out of the Weak-Moderate impacts/effects limbo range.

It's hard to imagine the -2.5 PDO will overpower with stronger El Nino conditions now developing in the subsurface. If the subsurface continues to warm to 7c and holding, we should have constant variations of +PNA. Less than 7c subsurface and I say we are still in "Weak Nino" impacts.

Should be an interesting Winter. Aleutian low's and high's have been going back and forth, but this is a pretty good +PNA signal in the extended http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

Subsurface is warming actually pretty rapidly right now https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp

I agree with Terpeast's assessment that we are >25-30% likely to see a blizzard this winter or "major snowstorm (>18")" (minus wind). STJ is really juicy starting last December. If we can get that GOA low or +PNA to sit for 10-15 days, it's bomb's away. I don't see the Fall pattern breaking this wetter than average tendency in the pattern. The only problem I see is N. Pacific low's could be transitory.

The last El NIno with -QBO before that was 09-10. Then 91-92, 86-87.

I think we are in a "SE High pressure tendency for amplification"-state so a -PNA would really not be good for any snow right now. +PNA or -EPO is almost definitely needed for snow chances, so it is a good thing we are in an El Nino right now (The Atlantic has proven not able to overcome bad Pacific conditions since about 2013- (Pacific is about 4x greater correlation for cold than the Atlantic in that time so legit El Nino here is what's needed)). Both the High's and the low's are amplifying.