Stormchaserchuck1

Love a low in the GOA, or that spot.

You guys should know a +PNA Is coming for Feb 7-21. Saying it will likely be nuetral-to+NAO gives us these analogs for the time period: (since 1948) 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1980 1980, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2015, 2016, 2021 ^ analogs vs other analog match's suggest not such an easy +NAO.. maybe -NAO possibility for Feb7-21 (How did we do snow-wise? anyone that knows)

Nasty -EPO, I wouldn't be suprised if it's 2 ice storms in future runs. In reality, we always need the -PNA to shake.

Man, I would bet the line PHL -2.5 x a lot

I don't want the 12z gfs ensembles look to go anywhere! Here's the cold that you guys have been talking about: And my continuum theory that in this time the cold has to correlate with +NAO, especially to get meaningful snow. Maybe if we get a Strong El Nino next year, it would break the ~10 year trend.

Ice storms are very common in -EPO's/-WP's (1-27 to 2/6) Here's what we have coming Jan 27th - Feb 2(-epo) Feb 2-7 (-wpo) (reverse this map v, map is opposite correlation of above) And believe it or not, I like +NAO for snow more than -NAO, at this time. (v+NAO composite)

The -PNA developing at 12z GFS ensembles at 384hr will probably not verify. That is what is probably our cold window/time (Feb 7-21) Dec -NAO/wetter than average is heavily followed by +NAO February (stronger signal than -NAO's that I was looking for!), so we will have to contend that with that perhaps.

Will be interesting to see if the El Nino holds, if we have a -PNA March....

' We may have to "build to" an east coast event, start Feb 5, 7-8, then maybe Feb 10-13 we'll get a snowstorm. I would actually like the NAO to stay positive.

Still have to shake this -PNA tendency. I say ~Feb7-8-> we start getting hit.

I think we will have a window around Feb 7-21 for wintery conditions. The year started off with a colder than normal Russia/Siberia. Flagstaff and that area has now seen 3 snowstorm hits, and Japan according to this is about to get record cold (such an extreme anomaly doesn't usually happen there). The theme continues to be 35-50N, with 45N more consistent for cold/shots. It hasn't hit the Mid Atlantic yet, but it has hit 3 other areas around the same latitude this year. (I made a note of this before)

Mathematical validity. I like scientific theory, but sometimes the unknown manifests in anomaly. Thanks for approving. Thanks. Models are trending that way. It would verify as a pattern change. Feb (5th)~7/8 -21 +PNA is the call right now

Can someone approve these?

More CAD, stronger storm (Moderator review doesn't work with this kind of stuff. )

Sorry for another football post but the SF 0-15, team records after they play SF, I've found through stats/research, carries. If DAL wins this game (DAL/SF), PHL will probably win the SB (Dall loss next week). If SF wins, and PHL beats them, KC will probably win the Super Bowl. random

PHL still 3rd place 1:3 odds to win the SB. Cincy is ahead of them 1:2.8 right now. I'd take that, Philly is 16-1 with Hurts, blowing out all the stats. They were up 14-0 in the 1st quarter last 2 games with Hurt's after injury.

60s

PHL will probably win the SB.

Feb 5-21 +PNA possibility (I think the dates surrounding.. Feb 1-4 and Feb 22-28 into March will go -PNA) It's verifying.. scientific-math. validity vs random

Next one is Feb 5-21, 2022 Next one Feb 5-21, 2023, this will verify. This will verify.2023 fwiw

Verified

NW, US cold anomaly (SD) Feb 5th, since year 2000: Reverses in March. (Models have a strong -500mb vortex over WA,OR on Feb 5th. I would guess that this is maybe to favor a -NAO in March.. -NAOlRNA-tendency

Feb 1st.. 5th consecutive year Feb 5th v

Again, the last 3 years were strong in the N. Pacific Feb 5th. Believe it or not, the 4 years prior, were all -EPO/vortex in that area in the date: Model has another tremendous -PNA this Feb 5th.,