Stormchaserchuck1

EPO and WPO patterns don't last that long.. On average their oscillations last 7-12 days. The NAO or PNA will go for 15-35 days, but it's hard to get a sustained EPO.. it fluctuates back and forth a lot, giving you not as constant winter-means.

Most people don't know that -EPO and +NAO is a snowy pattern.. you don't think 13-14 and 14-15 will ever happen again, but I disagree. I think they are lightly correlating.

sell I want 4"

-WPO blocks often retrograde and sometimes give way to big warmth.. a 500mb low creeps in under it. on Jan 23-24, the models are showing the 576dm line almost making it to DC. This is a really strong -EPO signal though for Jan 27-30+. +200dm over Alaska is what I like to see.. and +NAO makes it similar to the 13-14, 14-15 analogs. Here's -EPO correlation with temps in late January/ early February: Temps: https://ibb.co/rmdQbNb Precip https://ibb.co/gJvCrng +0.43(cold) and -0.12(precip) gives us +0.31 for net probability snowy pattern. This is when models build it Jan 27th on.. if they are accurate. +NAO is +0.45(temps) and +0.35(precip).. so a net of -0.10 for probability snow pattern. The combined of the two indexes is +0.21 for Jan 27th on..

It's the RAP, but it does put 4" down north of Baltimore

Yeah, that's all positive snow depth.. best looking totals if you run it out Here's the 700mb rh at 51hrfwiw

03z RAP vs 21z.. a little flatter. looks like more precip though https://ibb.co/PYKyM5D

0z GFS snow depth has it hitting up to 2"

21z RAP out to 51hrs was pretty juicy.. had a wide area of 6-8" from TN to WV.

60hr.. it's still snowing back to KY https://ibb.co/pJdmv8V

Snow depth is 2"+ over a good portion of the area 54hr.. still snowing

Seems to be a little more organized this run https://ibb.co/Q6Fxvw4

It's digging a tiny bit more this run

48hr Actually a pretty good difference vs the 18z NAM at 54hr.. vort max is in Omaha/N. Missouri vs western Nebraska

A little more neg tilt https://ibb.co/z4kSt3y

0z HRRR took away our snowband tomorrow.

It actually has pretty good snow depth considering how light.. 1-2"

Ratios aren't going to be that high.

Cool pictures.

NAM has a pretty good 2-3" in central MD It does sometimes have a NW/wet bias.. so we'll see

It's worse https://ibb.co/vJmqjk7

0z NAM 84hr vs 18z GFS 90hr https://ibb.co/j69cJh1

temps a little warmer.. 990mb low in south-central Canada. NS fighting for dominance on the NAM

NAM is flatter vs 18z

Does anyone else think it might be a little warm for the 2nd storm? That's a 500mb 482dm low off the south coast of Greenland at 165hr (++nao) and a 593dm high north of Puerto Rico.