Stormchaserchuck1

I had 15 minutes of straight hail. Minute 15 we got to 1-1/2". https://ibb.co/hF1Qfb2 https://ibb.co/YQQKfgk

This low pressure looks amped for severe wx chances tomorrow

60W/20N is a significant landmark. Storms that pass NE of it go out to sea 90% of the time, storms that pass SW are more likely to hit land, at I think 60/40, all storms included.

I think that is probably true, like we've seen all Summer. On the other hand, -PNA's aren't sticking either.

That's a good match, raindancewx. There hasn't been a lot of 500mb flux this summer so local temps and precip hold a little more relative weight.

I'm surprised that no one mentions that quite a few 6z gfs ensembles loop Idalia back into the NE http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

I count 12 times Nino 4 was <-1.00 anomaly for August, since 1950. Furthermore, it just seems to be a general progression +, as a lot of the older years were colder and recent years warmer (impacts on the pattern less as an enso anomaly vs overall warming trend). 32/36 of the oldest August's were - anomaly. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina4.anom.data. It's a region just warming overall vs ENSO flux

Holds its form pretty well inland

Yeah, a lot of El Nino years became self-perpetuating at this point at the surface. If Nino 3.4 is breaking 1.6 before September starts, there is a good chance the ONI of SON will be in Strong Nino territory.

There is a pretty good warm up happening in the daily subsurface https://ibb.co/cXKwxqq As long as we don't get strong cold water anomalies beneath the western and central subsurface regions, this Winter should not evolve like years of 72-73 and 97-98.

I would like to see us in a drier pattern in the Fall, because we are in a overall soup'd up precip pattern right now (carrying over from last Winter), that is going to hit some time or another imo...

We are still in a AN precip pattern, which I would think would last for EC through the Winter. Last Winter we had a top precip season with -NAO (they are usually drier), and I think the same general pattern is carrying forward..

Well, my ENSO subsurface index is barely positive so you could get some variation in the PNA. This -PNA on the LR models is the most extreme event since March, I'm just pointing that out.. We have obviously had a cooler summer with +pna's until now. These surface events, like the High pressure I'm pointing out, impact the PDO into the Fall (Sept-Nov PDO has a pretty high correlation to the Winter). Weather is always changing, I'm just playing it as I see it.

DCA: +3.5 NYC: +3.5 BOS: +3.2 ORD: +4.0 ATL: +3.8 IAH: +3.7 DEN: +0.5 PHX: +0.0 SEA: -0.8

Man, what a La Nina-pattern on LR models right now. Mild September.

02-03 was the real Winter, 4 months of constant snowcover. I remember seeing the grass 3 days after each of the 3 blizzards in 09-10, That's all. I feel we are in a similar pattern to 09-10, as it is 94F in N. Virginia with a pretty good -NAO today.

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out. In other news, Nino 3.4 has just broken +1.5

A trough definitely doesn't support it, as we have a stronger one setting up now, veering Franklin out to sea. The -PNA at Day 15 is still taking shape on models, but it looks like it could pair up with +NAO, which again is a EC, US ridge signal (at day 15+).

Days like today where it casually makes it to 84F, makes me nervous about the Winter. Snow could possibly melt fast, although I think troughs could produce snowstorms.. edit: the pattern is more -PNA today, like March 2023. We need to erase these Aleutian-ridge blips completely going into the Winter, because that is the more constant force right now (-NAO's = Pacific warm air everytime).

With a +NAO (1.32) too...

It happened in 65-66. They seem heavily biased to what happens "in the now", as Day 15 models are showing a strong -PNA developing.

15-day GFS ensembles are going all out -PNA though, which may put a ridge over the SE, US in time for a part of peak season. If a ridge sets up over the NE/SE Canada, that makes Gulf and SE landfalls more likely.

Ben Noll is the top contributor in this thread. It does help to know ENSO mechanics, instead of relying solely on analog-climo for facts. I can't wait to see the string of posts about a +4 Dec and -2 Feb (I have a colder Dec signal). The mechanics of ENSO should work more evenly all winter..

Here you go guys https://ibb.co/gSN5F7W Let's hope this continues into Winter. The 15-day GFS ensemble does show a -PNA, which makes the medium/long term closer to neutral, backing my ~0.4c El Nino subsurface index.