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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    This hits the STJ A little late to the phase, but it's nice to see it drop down to 958mb pretty quickly
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z Euro has 1" of snow here Dec 5th. I was talking about the time period earlier as a good +pna/-nao opportunity, it looks like the wavelengths in today's runs are more to match the upper latitude pattern.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what I think is interesting.. we have a slight window around Dec 4-5 for cold, and we pop a SE ridge https://ibb.co/KyLRXY8 Not all the time everything is correlated, but we saw the same thing last March.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Shoutout to the LR GFS that doesn't show snowstorms anymore if we aren't going to get snow. I've been noticing this for years.. in the early 2000s they always had a snowstorm.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    A -PNA December during Strong Nino? I think they were using analogs to say that December would be warm, without really knowing that ENSO correlates with -NPH(North Pacific High) (lack of samples).
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    -QBO's and El Nino's have a high historical mean of +10mb anomaly, and the same visa-versa. I wonder if that factors into a model bias.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Day 10 Euro: NAO is going positive, PNA is going negative.. https://ibb.co/N3XZNRB
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Especially because the OP GFS is so warm
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    There are many factors at play, ENSO is one of them. So far in this El Nino event, we have seen a N. Pacific trough more often, but it's still correlating on the level of like a Weak El Nino. Usually Dec and Jan is where that correlation picks up, but we'll see.. I know '97 and '82 had massive N. Pacific low's right now.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, they're both doing well with their analysis. Bluewave's showing of how we have followed similar progressions as the last few year's makes me think this Feb won't be a huge +PNA-Nino like everyone thinks (Hopefully we have -NAO).
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    It seems like we have a stronger relative SE ridge. Last Winter the N. Pacific ridge was extending into AK and the GOA a lot, and I was thinking "well maybe that's just an extended -PNA" and that a AK/GOA trough wouldn't really hurt us, or it could favor a trough. Now we have a slight +epo and it seems to be killing our pattern completely. I just think it's a case where 65/35 of the globe is warm, and we have a stronger relative SE ridge. The Pacific pattern on models isn't really that strong, especially compared to -nao.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like some unfavorable phases coming up https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO's have certainly been harder to stick lately, for the last few decades.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The neg NAO starts with -PNA. https://ibb.co/HP6Kzqx PNA never really goes positive through current 15-day models, so let's see if it trends (El Nino)..
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we may have a -PNA this February. The 6-year running mean is +150dm over the PNA region.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully we have a +PNA by then. That is some interesting energy moving across the US around Dec 4-6 though.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    In a lot of cases, it has been just as strong as the warmth is in the eastern subsurface. Some years like 1972 had mostly negative subsurface waters, while the surface was Strong Nino. 0-300m, yes.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is really heating up. +5c over a large area according to the TAO/Triton maps, which is by far the greatest of the event so far. https://ibb.co/jyXz36R And again, we aren't seeing cold water in the western subsurface, like other Strong events at this time of year. That could negate the tendency for us to automatically flip ENSO states next year.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've been saying watch near Dec 5th for our first possible snow event. This isn't a strong signal, but it's not that far off a really good setup.. https://ibb.co/vdN2TYW The reason is a stronger piece of energy is dropping into the SW around Dec 1-3.. when that moves east if we have this 3-wave setup with nothing else, like a Aleutian High, then we might have a snow event to track. El Nino should keep us away from -PNA as this trends closer, but let's see..
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think the -PDO is really a good reason either: Air dominates water.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe the El Nino is why models are fluctuating so much? I noticed a much greater than average change in the MR/LR models for the first time when the El Nino started up in the Spring, through the Summer, and now with a major model shift in the last few days (now -NAO and +EPO), this is when El Nino is spiking.. it seems like it would be an independent thing, the model flux, but maybe it's related to the El Nino?
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 2019, almost every single -NAO has correlated with a +EPO/-PNA, and +NAO's correlating with -EPO/+PNA.. that really holds true in these recent shifts. I think something is happening globally that makes it all run together. I would of course, rather see the +PNA/-EPO/+NAO combo and we can get a Winter like 14-15.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think our first flakes are going to wait until that Pacific pattern breaks down. +EPO is the worst pattern for snow, -PNA the second, and models went big in that direction today. But like I said last night, they are fluctuating big time day-to-day. They had a +NAO in the MR/LR a few days ago which is now a big -NAO. Back to the basics: We have a > +2.0 Nino 3.4 strengthening El Nino happening, so we should favor more +PNA or GOA lows, let's see if models drop the big -PNA/+EPO that they, today, have, if nothing else just because of ENSO.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    How about these run to run model changes? Now we have a -PNA and -NAO??
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moderating under +AO.. will probably veer warm, but this is an interesting setup with developing 50/50 low and GOA low. We don't miss it by a lot. I expect to see a lot of this setup in the Winter (+nao/good Pacific at the same time).
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