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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at the warnings https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCLE/standard LI https://ibb.co/FkpzH99
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    It feels like instability has picked up a little. I know last night it felt like it was 92 degrees and rain when I went to sleep.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    That bow near Toronto looks interesting. SPC has >40% between 4z and 12z. It seems like there is a Slight risk every day though, with not much clouds in the sky.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    If you correlate to .2101 sigma potential, central-subsurface correlates more to 500mb in the N. Pacific Ocean.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's pretty cool about 72-73, that there was a very cold ENSO subsurface with that Winter. There is a 0-time-correlation there (subsurface and N. Pacific pattern), I've learned (That Winter was strong -PNA).
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm getting a lot of intuition for an active jet, giving us snowstorm chances in the East, The global jet seems to be right now strong and active. Wild card is if the +PNA or GOA low forms like it's suppose to in El Nino's.. I think -NAO-type pattern can be expected with El Nino/-QBO (could be a EC trough extending south from Greenland when the Pacific becomes favorable., there is a -NAO=ec ridge, +NAO=ec trough pattern in play for the last 10 years, reversing the Pac pattern). All these global warming landmarks being hit.. I've been watching the pattern in the Southern Hemisphere and it seems cold periods don't want to last beyond 15-25 days at a time..
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    The central-subsurface remains very weak for a Strong Nino in Nino 3.4 and 4.. (Remember, we recently had a +3 to +7 wave pass below all regions, and it's now ~+1.)
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Phoenix is probably going to go 30+ days in a row above 110, breaking the old record of 18. I wouldn't micro-analyze.. The record warm Atlantic ocean, the jet stream is north right now. I think we are blessed here in the east having constant troughs so far this Summer.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you guys hear, Phoenix's previous record for most consecutive 110 degree days was 18 in 1974. They are expected to get to 25, at least, with 114's still showing up at the end of the 10-day. Looking at LR models, they could go 30+.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've found that the cooler/wet Summer so far locally can be connected to El Nino, so things like roll-forward a wet July or whatever can be done with some validity.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    North Pacific lows have been powering through. This is a few times now where the models showed more -PNA than verified, as we went with a GOA low or +PNA. This is the first time in ~3 years that I have seen this trend on models, over the course of a few months. We are 3/3 I think. Obviously, the Hadley Cell is still far north, but we wouldn't see this trend if it were La Nina.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Virga here
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good question about 91-92, I would say something about the sun, but that might not be completely true. It was at the peak of +NAO decadal time with +PDO, and 7/8 years were +ENSO in that mix, so all these positive indexes may have given more tendency for +AO. That's why I say different patterns at different times.. 94-95 was a lot like 91-92. I don't have all the answers about 91-92.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah there is only a 0.2 correlation between -PNA and warmer temperatures but I bet we will trend warmer out ahead of it.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I like the threat setting up around 7/17.. We have a Great Lake's trough cutting in, and there should be more of a SE ridge this time, ahead of it, with the PNA being negative.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the sample size is too small. 2/4 Strong Nino's have give us major blizzards, and 2/4 Strong Nino's have given us nothing. The cross-country ridge that is the ruling pattern in Strong Nino as per analog examples, doesn't really match if you think about it: What makes the 2nd wave in a Pacific-> Atlantic jet stream more broad? Different patterns at different times.. I'm saying that since the year 2000 something in the jet has slowed down and there is a gravity off the coast, as long as we don't have a ruling NPH (north pacific high).
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah I'm on all hours. Our last stronger Nino/-QBO was 09-10. weak Nino/-QBO was 14-15, but I'm excited because I think we are in some kind of long term -NAO phase since year 2000, making analogs like 91-92 and 86-87 have less weight, although these are the 3 stronger Nino's/-QBO's on record since 1979. Last Winter of course was opposite, stronger Nina/+QBO. We have had other bad Winter's with Nina/+QBO since year 2000 too. I think PSUhoffman understands the that the southern jet stream has/is lifting north.. It might be hard to go the Winter without having warmer/rebounding times too. I'm moderately excited though, the STJ wet macro pattern seems to be the pattern (bigger but fewer storms). Just envision storms in the subtropical jet moving into what could be a constant +PNA/GOA low. Could be a I-95 and point NW kind of Winter. Everyone is scared of east-based Nino, but I think that only strengthens the -NOI which is not a bad pattern. (None of the Nino/-QBO's were in an east-based Nino so far (82-83 and 97-98 were not -QBO)).
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    You guys aren't going to like the -PDO after the next 15 or so days.. last monthly reading was -2.54. There is a strong correlation Sept-Nov with the following Winter's conditions (more than random chance) so it could weaken after mid-July if we are going to see a good Winter, but it looks like re-strengthening -PDO should occur mid to late-July.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO should strengthen the next 15 or so days...
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    QBO is almost negative already! 2023 12.50 9.80 10.93 12.89 9.26 0.72-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90-999.90 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index Meaning it's probably going to be a solidly -QBO Winter.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Need to take a break from the rain, and build instability over several days if we are to see another good severe wx threat.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take that one. The way the pattern is flowing, I can envision tracking several storms that could be snow. Winter ridges are not supported by anything in the upper level pattern, and above average snowfall is favored, imo. -PNA's are getting sheared out on MR/LR models May-July. We just really missed it hardcore last year. The Nina was about as strong as it could get relative to global average rising temperature. It's a macro pattern though, favoring just one good track the whole Winter, i.e. smaller events are less likely. Everything seems to run as one unit globally, unlike times like 97-98, meaning a +PNA or GOA low should correlate to trough/storm. That's the pattern.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Raining again here. The 9th or 10th time in the last 2 weeks.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA may bring that SW ridge east through mid/late July.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models have been way below average lately, almost intentionally so: i.e: current conditions impact the long range at about a 0.75 correlation. Warmer or colder than forecasted day goes out to 11-15 day model at like 85-90%. Seems we are in a "sleeping phase" as a whole system.
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