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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here is what I came up with.. https://ibb.co/qpJFFdh
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    It kind of irks me that they always have predictability too low on Days 4-8 forecast. See a trough, and forecast out ahead of it.. They bust like crazy. Low risk is 15%, which rarely happens.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer's have been relatively cool since year 2000.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    How crazy! When I was a kid... the correlation only intensified.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Our last El Nino Atlantic Hurricane season.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I always get hit in the Winter (north of Baltimore).
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    How about those -NAO extended ridges! We can't get an organic high pressure full rotation counter-clockwise over Greenland these days.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've seen maybe 6-7" in the last 2 weeks.. El Nino is delivering here.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    20 days till the hottest day of the year.. enjoy it.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've noticed this, this year. There is a symmetry to the two atlantic storms- two east pacific storms, and that Cat 5. It seems the pattern is smoothing north, where 35N is the old 30N, as a macro pattern.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas now down to 2.5 after rising from 2.1 to 2.7. It's price action similar to what it was '96-00. Russia remains colder than average.. through July on LR models. So Apr 2022- July 2023 (15 months): Research shows that the next 12+ months features to even out (warmer than average Russia). So DJF would be a composite of warmer than average Russia at like 0.25-30 correlation (I'll run the map when I have time).
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty significant pattern change coming up in 4-5 days..
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't see why not. The NAO is negatively correlating, that's the only difference (-nao is correlating with +EPO/-PNA, +nao is better overall for snowfall). This started in the -PNA extremes after Dec 2010.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Can someone clarify, did Boston see 2" of snowfall Dec-Feb 18-19, or 17-18? I think that and last years snowfall along the coast are two strong plot points for current movement, on the "less" side of possibilities. (I feel Boston has some kind of block around legit extreme snowfall, re: global warming trend at this time. It could snow, but then be followed by warm days.)
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't know about that.. maybe people are biased to their personal experiences. Everything about the society seems to "even out".
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA looks to be a constant around Day 5-15+. I have noticed tremendous low model skill vs course correcting a lot in current conditions. When that SE ridge potentially pops in 5 days, and if we get warmer, watch for a trend warmer in the LR.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've seen 4 straight days of 90s across the area, with not much agreement in upper latitude pattern. -NAO now looks to persist next 10 days, this has correlated with extended ridge down the EC lately. The problem I have with 65-66 analog is the -NAO really dug into -PNA SE ridge, forcing trough. The NAO is not even in the same ballpark of pattern these days: we need pacific-forced cold, but a -nao may give us bigger storms to work with. Either way I think the STJ will be pretty juicy as the pattern is macro, Hard to imagine we get a lot of rainstorms if there is a Moderate+ Nino this Winter.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty nice -NAO setting up here the next few days. Watch to see if the SW builds a strong High pressure, to move across later in the month, and we have generally been busting warmer here in -nao's.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Back to +7c in the eastern subsurface.. The El Nino may become a self-perpetuating system, given how round its yearly evolution is. I think it will be interesting to see the unfoldment of the N. Pacific pattern if the central-subsurface remains cold and Nino 3-4 move into Moderate territory. this tendency toward cold bias will have been what we have seen through a lot of 2020-2022.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    If this cold pool doesn't go anywhere, it's going to be more of a -pna Winter. Amazing to see the Nino getting squeezed out in the subsurface, after the Kelvin waves last Oct-Feb.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    A big storm here in Fallston, many lighting bolts, lots of booms. Maybe 25+ less than 1 mile strikes.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    The MEI does have a higher correlation to the global 500mb pattern than Nino 3.4 SSTs, so to miss something by 0.8 does matter. I've yet to see a strong Nino pattern anywhere around the globe. There was thought that the Atlantic Hurricane season would see a bounce this year, with last years relative-low, but that historically is really only possible if El Nino stays weaker. 2002 and 2004 both had 15 Atlantic NS, the record high for El Nino.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    A strong -PNA setting up for late July, on the 384hr ensemble mean. This would negate a lot of the +pna action recently, and if the central-subsurface continues to cool, this fits too.. strong correlation there, validating in LR models right now.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    The -NAO streak continues.. models trended toward +EPO and highs in the 90s today, with -NAO setting in place. Everytime a -NAO happens, we trend warmer/SE ridge, and the pacific short term goes +epo. This has been happening since 2019, more often than a coincidence. Especially since 2021.
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