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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good post. It's lazy to think that an El Nino produces a -PNA December because a few examples show that. The natural state is +PNA.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    In 2005, I made timeseries of all indexes, and found a strong correlation with N. Atlantic SSTs May-Sept, as a lead predictor to the following Winter's NAO. I don't have the custom index anymore, but you can somewhat see it here: https://ibb.co/M9W0Q63 In the next 17 years, I tested it real time, and found it 13-4 in getting the raw NAO state correct, and in the beginning I estimated a 0.54 SD ("0" is 50% chance of -0.54 to +0.54), and that verifies 9-8, since 2005. Here is this the boxes I calculate, although the most accurate way goes from May-Sept (not May-Aug): https://ibb.co/Y8bTrWL This years SST index comes out at -0.05, so a 50% chance of the DJFM NAO being -0.59 to +0.49 [CPC]. So my supposingly successful method is predicting a "Neutral NAO" for Winter 23-24. Here is this year's raw map and plot: https://ibb.co/ZmQyz8k https://ibb.co/Hx1Mjcs
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    No -NAO today lol https://ibb.co/4mqVZzZ
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS is now developing a -NAO in the MR/LR where it used to have +NAO. Way Above average model run changes since the Spring.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    The NAO actually has a high correlation to precip. 0.4 in December, and near 0.5 for the Winter as a whole. This is why it was so disappointing that last years -NAO didn't deliver: It happened with a wetter than average pattern. I found that there were 2/11 -NAO December's that had a wet pattern (one being last year). I would take a favorable Pacific/+NAO for snow chances 20-30% greater than even.. (of course, you know that when -NAO lifts out we usually get a storm.)
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think as long as the central-ENSO subsurface stays warm it will be hard for a -PNA to sustain. It's still warming despite the neutral MEI
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    These runs are really fluctuating from one to another. Even the ensembles. A few days ago they had a strong LR -PNA, now it's gone.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    People don't understand weather. Why aren't Strong La Nina's cold, if Strong El Nino's are warm? Strong El Nino's are more realistically the blend of the historical analogs of Weak-Moderate-Strong past events put together. Weak El Nino's are more random, or neutral, the cold signal is just a lack of many examples, as it is though somewhat showing the base-Nino state (Weak-Moderate-Strong).
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Opposite correlation, in science you get correlations from 0.00 to 1.00, if you use the negative side you get 2x result. Use anomalies, it mostly works, probably greater than 90% correlated (+ and - side).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 4 +QBO/La Nina's have been historically bad so I'm hopeful I think the trend of the last 7 years is still strong though, for example: I don't expect 02-03 where it was snowing every day, the Winters surrounding that were more alike.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd kinda worry about the February -PNA trend of the last 6 years, which gives us a +150dm anomaly. NAO might be negative at that time given all the Stratospheric warming signals, but Feb I think is not a blow out in the Pacific.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Why are El Nino's warm in December? What is the physical reason? Why aren't La Nina's cold? Cold Winter's start cold in December, it's the intro month to longer wavelengths season.. the Winter sets in in December at like a 0.30-40 correlation, if you base it on a 200yr period. Really, Oct and Nov should start cold too.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oct QBO came in at -16.98, and still dropping. Having a Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO is rare... probably 1/25 year type event, for this type of strength of both. In the next few days, I might do some research and post maps about the unusually high 10mb correlation in the Winter.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    The default is +, so +NAO has negative heights over Greenland. Fwiw, -PNA Nov has 0.2 correlation with -NAO December.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov doesn't historically have a high correlation to the PNA This is after Oct had a decent +pna/-epo correlation that I think we hit. In December the strong N. Pacific influence of ENSO for the Winter starts to present itself
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big -PNA November it looks like.. Not much of a correlation Nov going into December PNA Lite correlation to February
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    We do have an Aleutian ridge, -PNA, setting up for the next 10 days, Nov 5-15. After that we'll see if models are right about a transition back to +pna.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, I suspect a warmer March and probably April, just based on the trends of the last few years. I wonder if we'll transition into La Nina going into April..
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Going back to the LR model accuracy that I was talking about before, now we have a colder pattern modeled, and a pretty strong +pna too. https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk Since this El Nino began, The LR GFS ensembles has been in flux more than I've ever seen before in the last 5-10 years.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Pacific for Oct looks like an El Nino. We also have the pattern starting to show itself again on LR models. https://ibb.co/F8zkzqk Remember, we are coming off of some powerful -PNA for the last 6 years so I'll take it. https://ibb.co/FgjXKt4 I think too we've had some higher than average correlations with ENSO in satellite era, as something like 20/22 events had a +pna or -pna associated. In the early 1900s, it was not that strong.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess I should have focused on the Indonesia region, this is a pretty strong correlation. My point was near the dateline you had the index happening with both El Nino's and La Nina's.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm focused on predictive value with a lead time. Subsurface seems to work best for the PNA.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Something like OLR or 200mb, 850mb Zonal wind are higher correlated.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Measure the thing as a stand alone index. It has little predictive value for sensible weather. I just started going by the thing year-by-year. I found that the first 23 years were all alike. It's a longer term pattern or cycle, but the 1950s and 1960s were very -PNA, and that's 30% of your yearly dataset. Again, be an observer, because something is blue or red during an El Nino year doesn't mean that it isn't random. Seperate the thing out year-by-year and you find La Nina's and El Nino's both associated with similar "forcings".
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It happened every year from 1950 to 1972. The average of the 23-consecutive years was greater than this year (Sept-Oct). That was a very -PNA/-PDO time. The VP caught on here as "something to correlate", but it's not by itself very correlated to the pattern.
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