Stormchaserchuck1

What do you guys think of this? 3 areas of low pressure in the west going into a healthy -NAO?

This is the Pacific pattern change

Boy did this storm weaken

It's a >500dm Aleutian block on the 6z gfs ensemble mean, 3 closed 500mb low contours on the mean. I've noticed that recently in snowstorms, everytime models want to put a GOA low, and sometimes it's a serious trend. I would say that, that is our window, when they show GOA low's, but the cold air might lift out/pattern less favorable in that case. With that -300dm trough under the N. Pacific ridge, I don't think it will be trending south a lot, so we might be safe for a good overrunning storm, unless a GOA low pops and it morphs into something extreme at 500mb. I think a lot can change with now that look in the Pacific, but I just wanted to make a point that the pattern trended more extreme at 6z. I'm curious to see how it plays out. There aren't many analogs of a +500dm -PNA/>+300-NAO in March. Most -PNA's happened with +NAO going back to 1948..

courtesy of brooklywx.. ridge over Greenland to ridge over Aleutian islands.. check ^lots of 50/50 low energy around..

Wow, awesome

^ Actually, that's straight HECS setup. The ridge is so big into Alaska, that there isn't enough normal variance for us to not get snow. I've seen the High jump to just the Aleutian islands maybe 1/10 times (sometimes we are the anti-snow magnet). Biggest risk is the pattern drying up.

It's definitely going to snow. The pattern is too wet for us to miss the window. Every 3 days we get a storm/precip or something if the jet stream is going straight w->e. We have like a 5-10 day window, maybe less(3?). I'm afraid it's probably +AO/+EPO after that. edit: both storms fizzled out compared to what they were showing a few days on models, under the fast jet-through Canada +EPO pattern (like I thought they would- that's what happens. Models always underestimate Alaska). That's going to change/flip, so I think we are building potential energy the right way.

That 573+dm -EPO block is a new development. Models had started trending south to -PNA, weakness cutting through Alaska yesterday. It's a wet STJ too.

Boom. I bet you we have a snowstorm March 9-11.

Ides of March.

384hr looks horrible. Blasted +AO. I knew my 2012 analog/similarities wouldn't just fall off the radar.

Maybe we're chasing this? March 9-11 window. Pattern is such that it should snow.

I don't know.. this looks good to me. We have a +PDO setup and strong -NAO still when this rolls east Models lost a lot of the moisture they were showing earlier for during and after the time.. yesterday was a drier day so they seem extrasensitive to current conditions. edit: it's still pretty wet. I'm getting frustrated that it's not showing an organized system because of sheering out SER. The upper latitudes with the ridge bridge look good. There's a lot of moisture everywhere still. (It does look like the window closes early in the LR). If the SE ridge is running as an independent feature, there is going to be more moisture in the pattern too.

I did this before, it favors +PNA next.. for 4 years \ 55-56 middle, 21-23 middle

EPO being negative not positive helps.. If the Pacific ridge is also through Alaska, pattern is fine. (It's more applicable further south v latitude probably evens this out with snowfall) wet jet going into big 500mb 50/50 low in -EPO.

I think this looks good. 50/50 low backbuilds. Timing is right as that piece of energy in the west moves to the east coast as the -NAO lifts out. Remember, -PNA by itself is more wetter than warmer(net temps/precip in March favors -PNA vs +PNA). So a north-oriented -PNA veering into -EPO does good. We just don't need that Aleutian high to completely trend south: which happens sometimes after on models you mix warmer air in the northern latitude levels (trend).

UKMET always does that. It thinks we're Great Britian

How do you guys do in 50/50 lows? KU setup if not for the rapidly trending -PNA.

KU setup imo.. it could change. Biggest threat to change is that Aleutian island high needs to break in pattern.. we have rain going up into the Davis Straight and Alaska.. sometimes that high latitude stuff trends back to -PNA.

re: 12z gfs Closed 500mb low rolling into the west coast.. -EPO. closed 50/50 low. This is the one I want to watch (what's diving into the WC). m

3 closed-low, cutting into a -NAO block lol

Just need to shake this +EPO

over-initializing current conditions (relative to really bad Pacific atm) for a long time now they are weak models

March is a wetter month.. this would give us snow a lot of times, but we average 2-3" in December