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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I can see the coast being a gravitation for pressure systems in the Winter by the way the pattern is.. We have seen a lot of this since year 2000.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really getting warm today. I like this pattern setting up with a trough over the Midwest/Great Lakes through mid-July.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    ONI research: 2023 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 5 month: (1.2) Best CPC ONI matches: -2010 (1.7) [1.6 peak], -2007 (1.1) [1.6 peak], 2006 (0.8) [0.9 peak], -2003 (1.2) [0.4 peak], 1997 (1.3) [2.4 peak], -1995 (0.9) [1.0 peak], 1989 (1.1) [-0.1 peak], -1988 (1.7) [1.8 peak], 1982 (0.7) [2.2 peak], -1978 (1.0) [0.4], 1976 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1972 (1.4) [2.1], 1965 (0.8) [2.0 peak], -1964 (1.7) [0.8 peak], 1957 (1.1) [1.8 peak], -1954 (1.3) [0.9 peak], 1951 (1.2) [1.2 peak] ...A lot of weak events in the mix. A few early peakers, and the Strong el nino events qualify but some movements to Strong Nina's had faster pushes, then what qualifies as +0.5(1.2). You can tell that the trend evens out over the whole dataset (5/5 Strong events qualify doesn't tell the whole story). https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 2003 was Neutral, 2006 was Weak, 1995 was Weak, 1989 was Neutral, 1978 was Neutral, 1976 was Weak, 1964 was Weak, 1954 was Weak.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again, the subsurface warmth is getting suffocated out. In the long range, it will be hard for the El Nino to continue to strengthen rapidly with central-subsurface profile like this. I've done research correlating this region with N. Hemisphere pattern, and the developing of cool anomalies supports -PNA conditions. This generality continues into the Winter: The more warm or cold the central-ENSO-subsurface is, the more the N. Pacific pattern will or won't react. (I've tested OLR, 850mb winds, SLP, SSTs, and 200mb winds, sigma, etc, and the central-subsurface has the highest correlation of all at D+0.)
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's still a macro-pattern, that means more activity with fewer systems. Seem pretty fitting going into an El Nino winter. Watch the central-ENSO subsurface, this has been cooling, and if that region continues not to warm the El Nino will have less effect in the Winter, despite what happens at the surface.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the air is too saturated. Im watching cumulus building to the north but it's nothing like the last few days (Harford Co) edit: nevermind, the storm is really going. Probably close to 1" of rain.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    low to mid 90s today across the area with -NAO. The pattern is N-S is elongating a trough or ridge, through Hadley Cells (15N-80N). I think in the Winter a -NAO will be hard to lock cold, but a stronger El Nino could overpower. This -NAO = warmth thing is really unbelievable because it is happening so often.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    90F here, Sunny. You can tell the air is saturated though.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^That's a good post. I'm worried about the cold pool developing in the central-subsurface too. The mid-July -PNA may be with an enhancement of this. It's been a tough area to stay constantly warm since the Winter, with a few short term cooler pushes having happened since March, overall a weaker +.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice -PNA, 594dm block ~7/14. These correlate with a cooler central-subsurface. After a series of +pna's, I wonder if this is evening out, giving less credence to El Nino effecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. It may seem like I'm doing heavy play-by-play, but there are some strong constants right now in the global pattern that I would like to see break.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some rain with 2nd cluster of clouds. Areas that didn't see so much so far might do better tomorrow. I like this front moving across the Midwest ~7/8.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some booms to my SSE (Harford county), nice building cumulus, partly sunny. It just rained 3 hours ago. We are drought busting like crazy. For now on, take months of below average rainfall as instability in the Spring/Summer. Although, if it wasn't El Nino, I don't know that we would be getting this.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    7-7/8 looks interesting with a trough cutting into/through the midwest.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 years prior to 57-58, we had the most negative monthly PDO on record until last year. It was a transition time/event break point.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global SSTs, chicken and egg. I do know that when a warm/cold front move by, the SSTs warm/cool thereafter. ENSO Is SST, but I wouldn't put much weight on other areas unless it's extreme, or a deviation from upper level pattern.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    3 year -ENSO followed by 2-year +ENSO, 4th year being an El Nino, also includes 02-03 and 14-15. (4) years since 1950 forward and backward: 57-58, 86-87, 02-03, and 14-15, not a bad list of years if I'm right about our continuation probability next year. edit: 76-77 qualifies and minus 54-55. That's a lot of weak events though. You might want to phase out the Weak Nino's. 86-87 and 14-15 are El Nino, -QBO matches out of the list.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've found 1957-8 and 1986-7 could be good Winter analogs, Both were the start of 2 year El Nino's, which I see as a possibility if this one doesn't go too strong (it's about potential energy). They also both came off 3-year La Nina/-Neutral.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another beautiful night, still, peaceful. orange moon. Love it after it rains
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    If the precip drought continues, we could be looking at the potential for some boomers going into the Winter (as that would signal it's a macro pattern).
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The +AMO may be something that starts with 15 La Nina's/8 El Nino's, and have more El Nino's vs La Nina's at the end (if it's extended), I fail to see the strong correlation there.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    The N. Pacific has responded moderately, by giving us less -pna's, and a few +pna's recently, but D15 models show an Aleutian ridge, which could correlate with some subsurface cooling. If this continues through late July, I can't see us getting past a Moderate peak. https://ibb.co/7kGNKpG https://ibb.co/0j72JfM
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    This isn't too impressive, The Western region in recent La Nina's match what we are seeing in Nino 3.4, heading into July We have had these Kelvin waves in recent Springs, anyway Having warm subsurface starting the previous Oct-Nov has been my par for "what could have been a strong event".
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's beautiful outside.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Round 3 incoming. It had cooled off to the 60s around 6pm, now humid again with distant thunder.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is a good example of the relative minimum's we are still experiencing at a time of global warming. This event remains uneven with the string of La Nina's, and global warming as a whole (if everything were to catch up).
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