SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I'm pretty sure most places have warmed several degrees in D-F over the last 100 years or so. Don & Bluewave always post great data on that This winter is an extreme warm outlier but still
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A lot of people still think it's not a factor
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CFS weeklies show how even a -NAO may not do anything
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Leaf out approaching a full month ahead of schedule. First signs of spring now in NJ & near the city.
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As long as spring doesn't turn into winter then we're good. I'm sure most would be happy to leave this disaster of a winter behind them.
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Ecological disaster.
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We're definitely not seeing that type of blocking. At best it'll be an east based -NAO. Heights look very low over and around Hudson bay & southern Canada because that's where a portion of the TPV will hang.
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I don't blame anyone thinking it'll be a shutout given the futility of this winter. You're asking folks to keep hope on 8+ day forecasts as we barrel into March after seeing very little snow & cold.
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Incredibly persistent pattern. No wonder the west has been so cold & snowy A blessing for those facing drought out there Things won't change here until the seasons change. Not expecting any hope til March
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What does a Nina phase 5-6 look like in March?
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I've been watching this for a while. Some significant ecological damage with the growing season this far along in mid Feb. With the warmth ramping up this will only worsen
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And you know what you're talking about? Pulling up random Twitter threads that justify your narrative doesn't make you an expert.
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That's a favorable look for late winter if true. Lots of cold available. The RNA/-PNA isn't a detriment like it can be in early-mid winter. At the very least you could get some SWFEs. Models are definitely trending towards a -NAO
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Saying every winter will be a snowless torch is equivalent to JB saying it'll be cold & snowy every season. Dead clock
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First time -NAO showing up on GEFS Clown range for now but models have also shown hints of the TPV pressing south in the mid range. PNA becomes less of a factor after mid Feb.
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Nice to see the TPV pressing south on the GEFS
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Boston is getting 100" minimum Calling it now
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Next winter is gonna be the complete opposite of this year. It's gonna be wild. Climate change favors extreme swings
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Some arctic blocking would really pin this sucker down. Pacific ain't changing but it doesn't have to in this setup.
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The effects of a -PNA in March is different than a -PNA in mid winter. Just need some arctic blocking
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We definitely should for DJF or met winter. March is still a question mark. Next 2 weeks are a blowtorch though with multiple 60+ days
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Warm weather is nice for a few days in the winter but not for weeks at a time With the coming warmth this week we're going to be seeing leafouts a month ahead of schedule. Allergy season will be heightened and the bugs will be worse than ever.
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I agree it's not healthy. It's going to throw everything out of whack A day or two of 60+ is fine but we've already had a record warm Jan. GFS gives us multiple rounds of 60+ and even 70+ temperatures in mid Feb.
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I think it'll be #1 in most places given the warmth rest of Feb. Futility will beat out 01/02 as well When all is said and done D-F will rank as the least snowy & warmest winter on record.
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Subtle hints from the GEFS for blocking. I think that signal will strengthen in the coming days and weeks
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