SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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There's probably a window somewhere there but we've had favorable looks before. I do think odds are a lot better than December though. -PNA much less of an issue
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Wouldn't this lead to suppression
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It could be 55 and it wouldn't matter. All comes down to wet bulb temps
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Sure the further north the better but this isn't encouraging.
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Each model run is trending more and more amped and big jumps were made by the southernmost models. MJO phase 7 supports an enhanced WAR which supports a phased, powerful system that confluence can't stop.
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Are those negative anomalies even legit or just more can kicking. GFS/CMC look warm for March 1-10 I'm hoping for an early spring so I can move past this miserable winter as soon as possible. What I would give for a 2012 March
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It's not done trending north.
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GFS/CMC looking much warmer for March. I think models are gonna back down on the cool anomalies and we'll still see an above normal month
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Bring on the torch and end this embarrassing winter
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That has no bearing on what will happen later. Dews are quite low and this comes at night. Additionally you get secondary development which will help lock in low level cold. A rare positive bust could be in the cards imo.
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There's probably a March 10-15 window and there have been notable events around that period in the past. It's really the last realistic chance at something significant as anything after mid March is highly anomalous.
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Confluence is present but it's battling the SE ridge. I think your initial call will be correct unless the confluence really ramps up over the next few days.
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Yes 01-02 set the standard for horrible winters that this one still beats as of Feb 27th.
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GEFS look much warmer
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Do you guys post Euro snow maps? Curious about NJ as it looks close
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Yeah looking like a non event now south of 78. Oh well at least it's almost spring
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I can't wait for this winter to die a fiery death along with the Nina
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It's probably our only chance at anything. Models aren't enthusiastic about the 3/4 system. So yeah give me a couple inches and then this pathetic winter can shove it
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Nam is garbage. It had widespread 1-2" totals for Saturday. I saw flurries.
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I live like 5 minutes from there and I can't shake that feeling either
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LR HRRR ramping things up nicely especially for the northern half of the forum.
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GFS has been trending stronger with the confluence. Not sure it'll be enough but still a lot of time.
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Sure but it has almost zero staying power. I personally hate late winter snows. Anything outside of a 1956 or 1888 or 2018 to some extent after March 10 is meh to me. But because I've had nothing this winter I'll settle for anything just once. Hopefully Monday night delivers
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This one's pretty cut and dry. Stronger 50/50 equals storm (miller B transfer) while a weaker one equals cutter. The current trend is towards a weaker 50/50 Additionally given the amount of phasing likely you would need a very strong 50/50.
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You can't ignore climo even with a favorable pattern. Our averages are climbing near 50 by then. Not many snowstorms after March 12 looking at history
