SnoSki14

Big solutions beginning to show up.

01/02 will still rank #1 This March is on track to be much colder and snowier than that year

Just give me one coastal storm and none of this cutter/swfe nonsense Would be nice not having to worry about precip type

If it were any other winter I would take this look to the bank. Best GEFS I've seen yet.

GFS starting to get a clue with more ridging out west and troughing in the east GEFS follows. Not delayed either but moving up in time

Yes that's pretty important. You don't need a +PNA you just need a less negative one. The March 10-20 period is still in play My guess is models will continue to trend more favorably as the MJO gets into phase 8.

Ridge out west + gulf low + big 50/50 under a decaying NAO. That's a recipe for a monster event if it played out as shown.

This winter moreso than others my mind already goes to the worst solution. Based on winter trends alone I'd give an edge to the GFS however the ensembles paint a very different picture. March will definitely be below normal, which sucks, but if it's going to be chilly then at least give me a snow event or two. Nothing worse than a cold, dry or cold/rainy miserable March.

Now if that cuts then I'm giving up on ever getting another snowstorm.

GEFS with a much optimistic forecast than the OP. Signal is there but slightly delayed.

Agree with Allsnow, great calls all winter and was one of the few that dismissed the "favorable" December pattern when even Forky was on board.

Lack of consolidated block & 50/50. Heights are high and low where they need to be but it's strung out. That's a problem given how the Pacific side looks. If the Pacific were a little better then this could work. It'll be good enough for C/NNE with some front end frozen further south.

I do think March 10-20 has the best potential to produce a significant snow event so far this winter. Better than December. I'll give it a 10% chance of producing a forum wide KU storm (10"+) a 25% chance of warning level snows (6-10") and 50% chance at another advisory event (2-5").

Snowstorm? I got a little more than inch that's gone already. I think most saw an advisory event at best. Even the worst winters usually deliver something. Good news is this miserable winter is just about over

This winter will find many ways to screw us. GFS led the charge in this Fridays cutter. I know I just think it's funny how this winter will find multiple ways to screw us

Big cutter on the GFS

The big storms happen when the NAO decays. The transition from - to + means there's likely going to be a storm somewhere The AO also follows and the PNA is trending upwards all while a high amplitude phase 8 is occurring. This doesn't guarantee a mid March KU by any means. We've seen how a seemingly favorable pattern in December failed to produce but chances are better than normal

Yes it'll mainly be sleet. We don't have cold antecedent conditions in place which would give us a front end event

There's a real signal on the March 10-15 time frame for one last hurrah. Very fitting with the MJO plot.

Need to see more south trends today otherwise this is a non event for us

Any chance for a real coastal track?

Noteworthy trends for sure that introduces some frozen into the forum.

That does look nice if it were to verify. Someone on the NE forum mentioned a pattern similar to March 1960

Typical 18z GFS shenanigans or something more because that was a pretty substantial move aloft.

Yes but we're also in that weird transitional phase where it can be in the 40s to 50 during the day and in the 20s with snow the next. If there's cold air to tap into then it will snow and based on those charts there will be a lot of cold around. My problem is there won't be storms around that can tap into the cold. But yes climo matters especially after mid March. You need anomalous cold + favorable storm track to get a significant snow event by then. There's only a handful of storms in our history that managed that.