SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's a fool's errand trying to hang onto something after mid March and nobody wants cold/snow by then. I would be a lot happier if the month just torched and it was definitively over.
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GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. Why? The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up.
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The next threat is turning to garbage real fast.
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Cutter or not I would like to see a massive storm regardless because extreme weather is fascinating and I think we'll def get that.
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Anything after mid March would be very anomalous. Our chances drop substantially after the 15th. Even if the pattern was still decent we would start having issues with getting enough surface cold for snow. We saw that in March 2018
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The funny thing is if the Euro verified it would likely reinforce arctic blocking guaranteeing everyone a chilly early spring. The Nina forcing & the dreadful Pacific have been killer all season. Thank your lucky stars for every inch you received. On a positive note it is one op run past day 5 so a lot can change. Additionally your area could score on a little clipper before that.
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How fitting for this winter to have two seemingly favorable months Dec & March only to both be bookended by a huge Midwest cutter Gotta just laugh at some point.
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It does look like a December repeat per Euro. And wasn't he correct on the December storm
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Additionally the Pacific actually looks decent for once. A neutral to slightly negative PNA is pretty ideal for March.
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What I would give for a coastal track or at the very least a classic Miller B with an offshore NC/VA coastal transfer. Those tracks have been few & far between
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Good calls with the last couple events. I hope you're wrong but this winter has shat the bed in every way possible so why wouldn't it do so again. Thank God spring is almost here
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Midwest/Lakes cutter yes. Coastal tracks have been a rarity for a while. I think if one does happen under this pattern then it would be an extreme event.
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I would keep expectations very low if you live south of C/NNE. Right now CMC/GFS/Euro all have inland runners for the next big storm.
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Inland runner though. That result wouldn't surprise me.
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You got burned dozens of times and still think that's nonsense? In this winter that's the default position
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The biggest difference is there's cold air around. If we had antecedent cold today then we would've seen a few inches on the front end.
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Nah in this winter it's go big or go home. Either give me a monster storm or don't give me anything. I don't need an advisory event in mid March that melts the next day.
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There's going to be a monster storm somewhere. You don't often see a low 90s pressure mean on the EPS 9 days out All the ingredients are there for sure. This is aa good as it gets for a major storm signal in March. The biggest downside is climo. We missed out on big totals in 2018 because things didn't get cold enough.
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I do think it's less likely than normal but if we get a big phased storm then it's on the table. This plot gives me some hope though. I haven't seen an MJO 8 this amped in a long time.
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In all honesty that's what's probably gonna happen. We can't have nice things this winter.
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I'm gonna lose it if it's another inland runner
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Starting March 7-8 after that clipper system is when things get interesting. That's also when the MJO gets into phase 8 at a high amplitude, AO tanks and PNA starts rising
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Models going ham with the fantasy storms. How about a blizzard from GA to the Northeast
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Suppression remains my biggest concern. A big sprawling 50/50 could be too much for us if positioned wrong. The somewhat -PNA does help in this regard to an extent It honestly wouldn't surprise me if places in the Mid-Atlantic 2-3x our seasonal totals.
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Likely colder than shown. Looks like DC/Baltimore gets the brunt this time. It's just one solution though GFS hints at that time frame as well
