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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Ridging out west remains the problem. A flatter ridge leads to a late capture a la March 2001. We'll need models to improve by tomorrow otherwise it's a dud for most.
  2. SnoSki14
    Not in mid March.
  3. SnoSki14
    You need this sucker to explode and tuck. Anything less and you won't see much. There's still time for models to trend in that direction. I would give it another 2 days.
  4. SnoSki14
    Well at least we'll know ahead of time Bring on the 60s & 70s
  5. SnoSki14
    I've been over this winter for a long time so whatever happens happens. We're very likely done after this threat minus a fluke storm in latter March or early April. There's reason to believe in a more tucked in, dynamic system. The seasonal trend over the past few years has been just that aided by very warm sst anomalies off the northeast coast.
  6. SnoSki14
    Thank goodness it'll be nice to move past this miserable winter and the dreaded Nina that caused it all.
  7. SnoSki14
    A later capture is more likely than an inland runner. Models being a little east gives us some wiggle room knowing things tend to trend west as we get closer.
  8. SnoSki14
    6z GFS clearly made a move towards it. You can see the changes aloft. We'll probably see more shifts on the 12z runs
  9. SnoSki14
    6z GFS made another move towards the Euro This is generally what you want to see for a coastal storm.
  10. SnoSki14
    Ok fair enough. What about the GFS though. It's much less amped which suggests a lack of consensus.
  11. SnoSki14
    Is there any reasoning behind this? I'm also skeptical given historic precedent but I can't deny what some models show right now.
  12. SnoSki14
    EPS is really impressive. It's what you want to see to get snows in mid March. Additionally if the storm is dynamic enough, which this is likely to be, then even a tucked in solution could yield snows as long as the storm is east of you. Also a rare longitude storm perhaps. I could see NYC and especially just N/W getting more snow than parts of SNE.
  13. SnoSki14
    Hopefully that's a trend as it would keep getting colder as we get closer. The track could tuck in a bit more and we could still end up colder.
  14. SnoSki14
    It's almost in Forky's sweet spot but will we have the cold to accommodate it. The snowfall maps don't look very promising I'm afraid
  15. SnoSki14
    How strong do you think this could theoretically get, 970s?
  16. SnoSki14
    Looks like a big move towards the other guidance. Big runs tonight
  17. SnoSki14
    The SNE crowd would be really happy with that GFS run but unfortunately for them it's likely moving towards the other guidance now. A tuck is much more likely if the phasing plays out as depicted.
  18. SnoSki14
    Not great. Op is much better
  19. SnoSki14
    Probably somewhat concerning that the GFS is very different. The GFS was the first to show a late SWFE storm last week while others where much more suppressed. And technically the 12z models moved east towards the GFS
  20. SnoSki14
    Yeah on second glance it would prob be fine. But I'm sure nothing will go wrong in 5 days
  21. SnoSki14
    The Ukie & Euro were nice but 5 days is an eternity
  22. SnoSki14
    Too warm for the coast.
  23. SnoSki14
    Go big or go home. Luckily spring is right around the corner literally. Unfortunately I see a crappy couple months ahead.
  24. SnoSki14
    Models are trying to build a high near the lakes but still a ways to go. This is a real tricky thread the needle with so many things going against it. The biggest problem is out west, shocking I know, but the lack of a ridge doesn't allow the northern stream in dive in faster and further south which would bring the cold air in. If we had a proper Rockies ridge the primary would end up further south and you'd have something closer to a miller A/C.
  25. SnoSki14
    Rgem didn't have much with the last minor event and most got an inch or two out of it. I expect something similar again
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