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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I think it's more probable the confluence will result in a miller B like solution. You can already see the 6z GFS try to attempt that. But it's too early to tell just yet
  2. SnoSki14
    Still think my area in Somerset will be lucky to get an inch. Consensus has the best snows north of I-78 with general 3-6" totals and locally higher amounts. On the plus side low level cold has been overperforming as of late and this could be a rare positive bust for those slightly further south. Keep an eye on wet bulb temps and finally the fact that the storm comes at night helps too.
  3. SnoSki14
    And Euro affirms that the GFS is an outlier atm. And like I said if the weaker confluence scenario is true then yes the GFS will be right but that's not a foregone conclusion. How's your Boston blizzard working out?
  4. SnoSki14
    A system will rapidly deamplify and transfer to the coast under strong confluence. The setup with Greenland blocking and a 50/50 underneath suggests there will be some confluence in place. The question becomes how strong will it be. As of now the GFS solution is an outlier however if models trend towards a weaker 50/50 then a cutter will play out. In that case you'd wanna be west as even VT/NH would flip to rain. It's too early to tell exactly what will happen
  5. SnoSki14
    It all comes down to the strength of the 50/50 underneath the blocking high. GFS is the weakest with it so the storm cuts N/W however the last few runs have been trending better with that feature. If trends continue then you'll see big shifts S/E and a transfer to the coast. We'll know a lot more after the 28th storm passes.
  6. SnoSki14
    GFS is trending towards more confluence for the 3/4. If that continues then the storm will have to transfer to the coast like CMC shows. Unless the storm phases in that case you're looking at a powerful inland runner. Either way it should be interesting We'll know more after the 28th storm passes.
  7. SnoSki14
    That's always the risk but once the Euro catches onto a trend (stronger blocking/confluence) this close-in it usually doesn't go back. And models are moving towards the Euro not against it
  8. SnoSki14
    There's a good 50/50 and block in place. I think we'll see models deamplify and trend S/E like we're seeing for the 28th as we get closer. Blocking regimes are prob the only time where systems trend S/E as we get closer though that doesn't always apply.
  9. SnoSki14
    Nam & Rgem can be pretty amped at this range so seeing them trend colder is a good sign.
  10. SnoSki14
    Speak for yourself. Most south of 41N haven't even had an inch of snow this winter.
  11. SnoSki14
    GEFS is east
  12. SnoSki14
    Let's not count our chickens yet. We're still very much borderline
  13. SnoSki14
    3/4 on GFS still cuts but clearly trending in a better direction. I'm willing to get GEFS will be east of OP
  14. SnoSki14
    This could continue trending south. Euro is going in that direction with stronger confluence each run. I think W/C CT is probably in the best spot here with a lean south.
  15. SnoSki14
    Yeah things are trending towards the Euro. It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter.
  16. SnoSki14
    Whatever we get, if anything, will be gone in a couple days or less anyway. Any snow will mostly be for show and to deter a record low snowfall season.
  17. SnoSki14
    Unfortunately we don't have a cold air mass ahead of this. That's a bigger problem than anything
  18. SnoSki14
    Like seeing an amped GFS & suppressed CMC for the 3/4. Final result could be somewhere in the middle
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be careful with the Nam. It can often be overamped beyond 48hrs.
  20. SnoSki14
    6z Euro/EPS ticking in the other direction. Something has to give
  21. SnoSki14
    In the past I would've locked into the Euro but it ain't what it used to be. Though on second glance you can see the confluence trend stronger on the GFS/GEFS however we aren't seeing surface changes yet. If the Euro is correct then the GFS surface depiction should change substantially over the next 1-2 run.
  22. SnoSki14
    Is the GFS on crack then. It's very different for this storm and the 3/4 system.
  23. SnoSki14
    GFS being amped for the 28th & 3/4th system while the Euro is the opposite is unusual.
  24. SnoSki14
    I'm on a deamplifying train right now especially with the Euro/Ukie showing it but with this winter you never know. I know SNE is praying the GFS is right
  25. SnoSki14
    The Euro/EPS combo is pretty strong this close in
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