SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,257 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
It barely started lol. Why don't we actually wait til 1/15 instead of chasing day 7+ op runs.
-
Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
DC south could do really well in this pattern. -
If models are underestimating the Atlantic blocking like they've been doing then that may not play out. Could end up shunting SE ridge further south setting up a potential gradient pattern.
-
I wouldn't give up yet. GEFS/EPS been trending with less confluence and more amplification. Still several days to go
-
Another reason to tread lightly on model runs this far out
-
Yup good trends getting the confluence weaker
-
Snowfall NYC subforum Jan 6 and OBS if needed
SnoSki14 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Southern states are going to clean up while we get nothing? -
Don't feed the troll
-
He's a realist when it comes to weather. People may not like it, especially during winter but it verifies most of the time.
-
How anyone would live and die by day 7+ op runs is beyond me.
-
We're cooking today. 65F right now, above forecast. Feels awesome
-
I don't think so. It's going to snow
-
Following day 7+ OP runs will give you an aneurysm. Just follow the ensembles and give it a rest until after the new year.
-
This setup could trend favorably given pattern aloft. Lots of confluence nearby with strong blocking present
-
The 6th and 10-11th are the two main opportunities. The 6th looks very SWFE-ish. 0z GFS was an outlier, 06 GFS brought it back. With such a strong blocking pattern, it could trend towards a miller B and further south.
-
Some classic GFS snow porn That's a pretty textbook snowstorm pattern showing up. We'd likely have more chances after the 8-10th too.
-
Completely sheared out
-
Yeah that could deliver too
-
GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern
-
And inflation will magically disappear. I can't wait for my $1.50 gas
-
If the pacific jet can relax even a little bit then pattern is loaded with potential. Jan 5-7 then 9-11 with more afterwards. Unfortunately the trends this winter have been to strengthen the jet as we get closer in
-
GFS mainly cold/dry with clipper potential. You really need a sustained western ridge for something better. Probably a colder version of our December pattern. Best odds at something more significant is Jan 10-20
-
Late day highs?
-
Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo.
-
If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. And then Nina March's can be really good too
