TheClimateChanger

Incredible. Looks like it will be one of the top 10 daily snowfalls to have occurred in the last 10 years.

Documenting the loss of winter with true & accurate data: Temperature Predicted Value, 1970 (linear): 26.9F Predicted Value, 2024 (linear): 32.6F Difference: +5.8F LOESS curve has a predicted value of 35.3F for 2024. Snowfall Predicted value, 1970 (linear): 66.8" Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 54.2" LOESS Curve appears to do a much better job at capturing the trends - current predicted value: 27.6". Look at that insane inflection point at 2005! Annual Minimum Temperature Predicted value, 1970 (linear): -8F Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 0F From solidly Zone 6a to borderline Zone 7a. Number of Days at or below Zero Predicted value, 1970 (linear): 7 Predicted value, 2024 (linear): 1 [LOESS curve predicts fewer than 0]

Not surprised. Weather in the UP is often wildly different from the lower Great Lakes. The high-water mark for snow depth in the CMX station thread was the winter of 1936-37, which was the least snowy on record at Detroit. Maximum Winter Season Snow Depth (1888-2000) Mean Winter Season Snow Depth (1888-2000) - sorted by highest. Some of those winters that don't look very impressive in recorded snowfall totals in the 1920s and 1930s, nevertheless resulted in very high snow depths. It is true, however, that most of those low snowfall years were quite bad for snow depth, particularly 1925-1926, which apparently was the polar opposite of 1936-37.

Same with GRR. Mean snow depth no trend (less than 0.1" increase) over POR, yet regression shows 33" increase in yearly snowfall. Of course, no change since 1950, when snowfall measurements became more standardized.

I mean this is a little suspect, no? Ends in 2000, but you get the point... snow depth trend would probably be more pronounced if there were still observations at the airport. Somehow snow depth was higher 100+ years ago, despite snowfall being 50% of recent decades. If average seasonal snowfall doubled, why has mean snow depth decreased if every season? Certainly, the temperatures have warmed somewhat, but it's still mainly below freezing in Keweenaw. Mean Snow Depth (Winter) Mean Snow Depth (Spring) Mean Snow Depth (Fall) Mean Snow Depth (Annual)

One correction to that list. Even ignoring any considerations of the site location, methodology and some data irregularities in the database, the 1879-1880 figure is based on incomplete data [as records don't begin until 1880]. Last winter was #8 on this list among years with sufficient data.

Even more ominous when limited to those years following a year with a peak ONI of +1.6C or higher. That would leave only 1973, 1983, 1988, 1998, 2010, and 2016.

By average maximum temperature, we have the warmest (1988, 86.2F), the 3rd warmest (2016, 85.2F), and two just outside the Top 20 - the 21st warmest (2010, 83.5F) and the 22nd warmest (1983, 83.2F).

Man, we just can't seem to catch a break. Looks like a scorching summer based on that set of analogs. For Detroit area, the preceding summers include the warmest on record (2016, 74.9F); the 5th warmest on record (2010, 74.4F), and the 9th warmest on record (1988, 74.2F). 3 of the top 9 hottest summers [out of 150 years] from a set of 9 years is pretty impressive. 1983 (38 of 150), 2008 & 1998 (42 of 150), 1973 (47 of 150), and 1975 (61 of 150), were all above the long-term median (although these may be fairly typical summers compared to modern normals). Only 2000 was a legitimately cool summer, albeit nothing to write home about [being 49th coolest of 150 years].

Anyways, I wouldn't take the snowfall numbers as gospel, since they were likely based on a single daily measurement and without the use of a snowboard. But several of these values would place favorably among the official records since 1893. Most notably, the 101.8" in 1880-81 would still rank as second snowiest of all time. The 22.6" observed in 1865-1866 would rank as 3rd least, just ahead of last winter and 1894-95 (22.7"). Also, the 0.2" observed on September 30, 1888 would be the earliest measurable snowfall on record in Cleveland, and the only time measurable snowfall has ever occurred in the month of September. The official record is the 0.3" observed on October 2, 2003. The 1.4" in May 1875 would be second most for that month. The 36.4" in December 1886 would be a record value. Several other of those months rank in the top 2-5 on both most and least snowfall. His average of 53.2" is probably underdone for the reasons I noted. But the current 30-year normal is around 63 inches. However, the moving 30-year average is down to about 54", the moving 10-year average is down to about 40" and the 5-year average (constituting the whole of the 2020s from 2019-2020 to 2023-2024) is down to around 33". Obviously, these values can come up a bit depending on how the remainder of the winter plays out, but not much. Even an unlikely two feet of additional snow from now through April would move the 30-year up by a fraction of an inch, the 10-year by 2.4" and the 5-year by 4.8".

Oh, I forgot about this storm. I have read of it before. Likely, the biggest snowstorm observed in Cleveland, but official snow records don't begin until 1893. There was a volunteer who observed weather from 1855 - 1905, including snowfall. He reported 22.0" of snow, on 1.98" of liquid precipitation. 18" were said to have fallen in 8 hours, including a fall of 4" in one 20-minute period. This exceeds the 21.4" which fell during the "White Hurricane" of November 1913. Source: Journal of the Association of Engineering, July-Dec 1905. 50 years of weather at Cleveland.

Central PA doing incredibly well this winter. Harrisburg only a few inches below Erie, and I think outpacing them since the start of meteorological winter.

I think we just need to come to grips with the fact that our location downwind of the Great Lakes would suggest we will be among the fastest warming winter climates on the globe. In winters past, the Great Lakes would get significant ice cover and allow unmodified arctic air to penetrate into the area. Now, they are massive, wide-open heat sinks all year long, taking in the heat of summertime and slowly dissipating that heat all winter long. Under the traditional Koppen climate classification, a subtropical climate was having a mean temperature of -3C or warmer in the coldest season. They didn't like this system for North America, and so it was modified to 0C or warmer. But even under this system, the last 5 years, the coldest mean is 31.8F in January (or basically 0C). Certainly, downtown, the lower elevations and places further south in the metropolitan areas have seen 5 years pass with all months above freezing.

If we look at Chicago, there's a lot of data here from non-comparative stations (downtown, lakeshore exposure). But if we limit our inquiry to airport data (MDW 1942-Jan. 16, 1980; ORD Jan. 17, 1980-present), we see a much different picture. The mean mimima of 28.3F is 2.2F warmer than any year observed at one of the airport observation sites. Incredibly, the 25.2F mean minima at GRB would have been the 5th warmest ever observed at a Chicago area airport prior to this year. This also suggests to me there are likely locations near the lakeshore downtown where the mean minima from a properly sited station may be 32F or higher this winter. There's certainly evidence to show that a lakeshore siting can have a big impact. If we look at Cleveland, we find a mean minima of 31.3F for the winter to date. Yet Burke Lakefront Airport (BKL) on the lakeshore, and close to downtown Cleveland, registers an absolutely astounding 34.3F.

Incredible winter in Milwaukee for palm tree growing enthusiasts, where the average minimum to date is closer to the freezing point (2.6F cooler) than it is to the second warmest (2.9F warmer), and an astounding 2.5F warmer than the normal winter mean temperature. Also, of note, the 25.2F average minima at Green Bay would tie the 3rd highest ever observed in Milwaukee and the highest ever observed at MKE Airport [prior to this year], more than 100 miles to the south in a much larger urban environment.

Even more incredible if looking at overnight minima. Green Bay currently 3.8F ahead of second place, and 5.4F ahead of any year at the airport observation site. Minneapolis currently 3.3F ahead of second place, and 4.6F ahead of any year at the airport observation site. The average minimum temperature of 25.2F at Green Bay is 3.9F warmer than the normal winter mean temperature (21.3F).

What an incredible start to the month of February for Detroit, although certainly not limited to that location but rather demonstrative of the entire region. Warmest mean high temperatures for the first 12 days of the month by nearly 1F. One of only three years with no measurable precipitation for the first 12 days of the month, and one of only two years with no snow at all. The other two years with no measurable precipitation (1991 & 1877) were also among the warmest starts to the month, albeit several degrees Fahrenheit cooler. Looks like El Nino on steroids for you guys. Average high temperature for February 1 to February 12: Total Precipitation: Total Snowfall:

Just an a relentless south, east, and weaker trend for 24+ hours. Unreal.

The Mark Model still has the city at 3-6 inches.

I can believe it. 2020s DC is basically a warmer, less snowy version of late 20th century Charlotte. CLT (1961-1990) - December, January, February Temps & October - May Snowfall

Even that doesn't always work out.

Seem worse than ever. Every storm is a complete guessing game until 24 hours.

Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no?