binbisso

There's a band over the ocean that's moving into New York City right now looks like it wants to connect with the main bands that's in Eastern Pennsylvania the radar looks really good I wonder if we're going to be in for any surprises tonight

When looking at radar it amazes me how most of this precipitation is going to miss our area

This is the National Weather Service latest discussion .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HRRR model is depicting afternoon snowfall upstream but seems to be too slow with its movement and too far to the south. Main issue for tonight is the snow. Expecting this to occur mainly this evening to shortly after midnight. Timeframe of around 7pm to 12am. There is a possibility depending on low position of some moderate to heavy snow in that timeframe, with higher chances of seeing this across Eastern Suffolk County Long Island which will be relatively closer to the low as it is deepening late this evening. Eastern Long Island also probably still seeing some snow shortly after midnight, ending around 1-2am there. Low pressure moves off Mid-Atlantic and tracks south of Long Island close to 40N/70W benchmark while deepening slightly. It further deepens as it moves farther offshore and away from the region overnight into very early Wednesday. Precipitation amounts vary between the different forecast models. They vary with the precip area north and west of the low. 12Z NAM higher than other guidance but still want to weigh the NAM solution in because of possible banding and any additional deepening of low would result in expansion of precipitation area and a more quick cooling of boundary layer. Consensus of model data shows a relatively larger area of precipitation encompassing the coastal sections of the region with most interior areas like Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic counties being on the outer fringe of this precip area. Precipitation is between a few hundredths of an inch to about three tenths of an inch, lowest for far NW sections of region, highest SE sections of region. Much of this occurs this evening, lasting longer for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with some lingering snow shortly after midnight. There is potential for higher amounts of snow of a few inches more than forecast if low is stronger and is closer to the coast. Models keep a half to three quarter of an inch offshore but if this occurs farther northwest over the coastal areas, there would a mix of rain and snow changing to a relatively heavier snow, and about 2 to 3 inches more snow than forecast across all coastal areas.

Just took this off the National Weather Service site I think they made a mistake can anyone confirm Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 CTZ007>012-NJZ006-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-082045- Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Snow this evening could be heavy at times and could result in snow of 2 to 4 inches. This will lead to slippery conditions on the roads and low visibilities. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Snow squalls will be possible on Wednesday, mainly in the late morning through the afternoon. This will bring brief low visibilities down to a quarter mile or less. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.

Way west at least 50 miles nice hit from New York City right up into New England

It looks like the Euro ens are better than the operational looks like 1 to 2 in average snowfall from Long Island through Eastern Connecticut Rhode Island Southeast Mass I don't have the breakdown wonder if there's a few nice Solutions in there

Yeah it's going to be insane you get the UK set up and that's a bad ice storm for central New England North maybe even pressing down into our farthest northwest suburbs. If you get that second shortwave to weaken as has been the case inside of five days this winter so far that's definitely a possibility. also 60s New York City on South teens Albany North what a temperature contrast

What the heck was the ukie drinking today. That's a nice hit from Long Island into Eastern Mass

Snowing light to moderate a few tenths of an inch on the coldest surfaces here in the South Bronx at work

Yes I agree not saying we're going to have accumulating snow on Sunday especially for the coast but the trend has been further south and colder. If the upper level low closes off South of us and we get some good banding there's definitely a chance we see some accumulations interesting how this was supposed to be a warm cutter several days ago

Also with that Scandinavian Ridge which looks to develop by day 8 and continue throughout the end of the Run on the GEFS it looks to create a 50/50 low that stays there through the end of the Run that should somewhat mute how warm we get here. as others have said it's been a prominent feature on guidance since the spring

With all the warm talk on here wouldn't it be something if we reach average snowfall for January by the 8th as some guidance suggest. Also looking out into the extended the ensembles look like they want to create a ridge Bridge from the aleutians through the Arctic into Scandinavia and drop a trough late in the period in the east. There will also be plenty of cold air in Canada so any cutter should drop some cold air down into our area to somewhat offset the warm phase 4/5 mjo.

Both the GEFS and geps trying to bring the trough into the east late in the Run. Looks like they're trying to connect the ridge from Scandinavia right across the pole to the aleutians. Very late in the run the ridge looks to retrograde but days 13 to 15 look serviceable during Prime climo

Ukie is 993mb off the central New Jersey coast a hour 72 I don't have to thermals but temperatures should be crashing from this point forward

Yeah he's off many times as it looks like he usually picks the warmest guidance. There was one point in mid-December where he was three degrees off his 8 day forecast. It's always best to go with a blend of what the models show. If we use the 1991 to 2020 averages this December would probably end up right around normal which would be more appropriate to use as we are in a warmer climate now.

The cmc brings the vortex into central illinios and the 0c 850s into central florida. Suppressive look there

Bluewave the next seven days the mjo is forecast to be in 7 and 8 how come we are going to be well above normal in this timeframe

Wow a negative 2.6 departure wiped out in 6 days. My call for negative departures for December was way wrong and I made it on the 21st. No way I saw this warmth coming. plus 9 the last 6 days and that looks to continue for the last four. This hobby can make you look bad at times and is very humbling. Anyway the first 3 weeks were very good and much better than the recent December's we had I am slightly below normal in snowfall so far. here is hoping to a better January. Kudos to those who had the warm call for December

It's also very easy to be plus two in January and above normal in snowfall just keep the pattern active

I must be living in a different city I agree with PB. 7 straight weeks of below normal temps above normal snowfall for half of this sub forum and now we're in a 10 day or so period of above normal temps. I mean it can't stay below normal for the whole winter we're going to go above normal for stretches. I know it sucks being around the holiday time that we warm up but what can we do.

Nice. its been a wintry first 22 days of december for many in this sub forum and all of new england. When you look at bluewaves map of the whole country most lr forecasters actually got the longwave pattern right except for the Northeast. Wonder if they didnt take into account the 50/50 area which has had consistently lower heights this month and probably contributed to the - departures

The ao was very pos the first half of december and we were slightly below normal thru the 15th. If the tpv takes up shop over northern canada/hudson bay in early jan. as some guidance suggests then it will be plenty cold with a pos ao.

Yea so much for the one day in and out cold snap. We mild up for a week then who knows after that. Too many conflicting signals in the longer range

oops got my days mixed up. Should have been xmas day.

Yeah I mean the next four days are averaging about -9. This is no in and out arctic cold snap. That's a 10 40 mb High sitting over us through Tuesday before the next cold front comes in obviously the air mass is going to modify but not make up those departures to make it close to normal for the next 8 days. It's just like the post up above that shows the GFS MOS for 6z showing 53° for Christmas Eve. that's irresponsible when the euro is 15 degrees colder for the same day.but everybody likes to Cherry pic so it's hard to get accurate information. The fact is we finally got December to be a winter month. By Saturday most of the subforum is -2 to -3 in departures and half the subforum is above normal in snowfall