binbisso

Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. I would really love to know where you get your data from I have to assume that you pick the warmest guidance and post it here. If you take the average of the official National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days it's slightly under 32 degrees which is about 4 degrees below normal which means we will be -1.9 through the 24th of December. Consequently we will have to finish the last 7 days averaging + 7 just to get to normal. The probability of that happening is highly unlikely. December will finish with a negative departure.

Hi Bob visiting from the New York City forum love your analysis and others on here as I have been following her for a while now. Looking at that map you just posted it doesn't look that ugly. From what I can tell there is still plenty of cold air in Canada. if you look at the 850s they are still below normal there. building EPO Ridge and still some Reds over Greenland with lower Heights in the 50/50 region. I don't think it would take long for this to flip to a good pattern.probably the next several panels.obviously it's 384 hours out so taken with a grain of salt

Agree and I see what you're saying about the fast Pack Flow as you can see the trough entering the West Coast and another one in Northwest Canada knocking down the ridge. Get rid of that low in Northwest Canada and extend that ridge Northward to drop the shortwave over the Great Lakes Southwest

Or get the ridge out west more north to south then the Northeast to Southwest orientation as shown today which would dig that Great Lakes shortwave South /west and then that could be fun.

I usually favor the Euro over the other operational models but the Euro just caved to the GFS for the pre-Christmas storm. Verbatim it's a Miss but that is awfully close and a very nice-looking setup

10 to 15 degrees below normal for 5 days in this warm climate is pretty impressive to me especially with all the warm calls for December

Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 50 50 100 NW3 29.42F FOG Bronx Lehman C N/A 50 48 93 NW3 N/A LaGuardia Arpt DRZL/FOG 50 48 93 NW7 29.40F VSB 3/4 Queens College N/A 54 54 100 S5 N/A Kennedy Intl LGT RAIN 54 54 100 CALM 29.41F FOG Breezy Point N/A 50 N/A N/A N2 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 54 52 94 NW3 N/A Staten Island N/A 50 50 100 NE5 N/A Newark/Liberty FOG 51 51 100 N7 29.40F VSB 1 Teterboro CLOUDY 51 51 100 NE5 29.39F FOG $$

The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December

How so? Blue Wave and isotherm are on the warm train. isotherm called for +1 to 2 temperature departures for December. We are -2.3 so far this month with the bitter cold air mass coming Wednesday night through next Saturday. We're probably going to be -3 or better by the 21st not going to make that up the last 10 days. Also they're probably spin it because most of the country is warm except for our area but they specifically forecast for our area. Also if we get a few inches of snow on Monday will be very close to normal for December with two weeks to go. I will add that isotherm North Atlantic forecast is going to bust if guidance is correct with the Nao and ao. We will have had two episodes of negative Nao and the AO supposedly going to tank the last half of the month. His forecast called for no blocking in the Atlantic for December. And bluewaves mjo forecast is incorrect as it's going to probably miss the warm phases and come out in the cold of phases later this month. If I'm not mistaken he was calling for the same mjo propagation as last year

Me too!. The one feature that's been consistent since summer is the 50/50 Low. No way we're we're torching if that continues. just a continuation of cold high pressure to our North which as we get later in the season even with an unfavorable Pacific and cutters we will still be dealing with a lot of mixed events and eventually Storm Track should start shifting South. With the upcoming system this Tuesday that's three systems to track the first 17 days of December and most areas 20 or so miles north and west of New York City are probably above-average snowfall so far. I'll take this any December

1.5" here. 3" for the season so far. Looks like a winter wonderland here. If anyone lives in the Bronx take a drive through Pelham Bay Park on Pelham Parkway heading towards City Island what a beautiful sight this morning

Yes snow it's tough living in the city where everything is basically pavement. I'm one town outside of the Bronx and it looks like a winter wonderland everything's covered except the street and part of the sidewalk. blacktop grass all covered with about an inch of accumulation just eyeballing it. I will measure after the last band comes through

Heavy snow in the South Bronx 34° coldest surfaces are starting to get slushy if it continues like this for a few hours we should do pretty well

Very volatile mid and long-range pattern right now. What I like is cold air is close by and very active pattern with both the northern and southern stream.

Yes nobody likes snow to rain. And that storm was fun to experience. With the pattern we're in we have a chance because it's cold enough unlike the last several December's and Winters in general where it was just too warm to snow. If it's 50 degrees and you have a benchmark track what good is that. We have a chance this December that's all I'm asking for.

My preference is for it to be winter in winter. And I prefer it to be cold and tracking 10 to 15 storms per year and they all can be between 1 to 6 in and that would be an A+ winter for me. The worst winter I've ever lived through happened a few years ago during the Super El Nino when we had the one blizzard that gave us two and a half feet of snow. I don't think there was another storm to track that whole winter much worse than the 80s and 90s in my opinion. Edit. Actually the winter of 9798 was the worst winter I've ever experienced then came the super el nino a few years ago in a close second

I never mentioned anything about a 6 Plus in snowfall since I'm 57 years old I know how rare they are except for this last decade. I lived Thru the horrible 80s and mostly 90s takeaway 93 94 and 95 96. My point was basically that were in a cold pattern and that without cold enough air it will not snow and can not snow which has been the case for many of the December's this decade. I'm perfectly fine with 1 to 3 and 3 to 6 in snow falls. And those are much easier to achieve even with a cutter when there's Arctic are in place as it will snow quite often on the front end especially as we head into late December and January. Those 1040 MB highs are hard to push out the deeper we get into the cold season

Yes this is true but that was a fluke last year in November. If temperature stay below normal the rest of the month as it has been I'm sure we're going to score on a few events. may not be all snow but we should add to December's total. Edit. I believe the main ingredient for snow is cold arctic air and we've had a few Arctic breakouts since November 1st and another one for next week. We will eventually get a low pressure to push into this cold air only a matter of time

I really enjoy reading your post in the morning but sometimes I scratch my head as to where you get your figures from. We are below normal through Sunday then two well above normal days Monday and Tuesday and then three well below normal days Wednesday Thursday and Friday. We are well below normal over the next 7 days according to guidance. Edit. Looking a little more closely at guidance for Wednesday Thursday and Friday of next week -8 Wednesday -20 Thursday - 15 Friday would like to know what numbers you have. we ar in the 20s Thursday and Friday for highs which is about 20 degrees below normal

Since November 1st Central Park has had 26 below normal Days 7 above normal and two exactly normal. Looking at guidance over the next seven days five are below normal and 2 above normal. That would give us 31 of the last 42 days below normal. What's even more impressive it that 17 of those 31 below normal days had a departure of -5 or lower. there's no way to cut it, we are in a cold pattern right now and there are really no signs it's going to stop anytime soon

This is from PSU Hoffman in the Mid-Atlantic forum who I always enjoy reading his insights. They have some really good discussion is in there medium-range thread. I thought I would post it here for us to see. I hope he doesn't mind. QBO for November came in at 5.07. Looking at the progression the closest matches to this year are 2004, 2002, 1997, 1978, and 1969. Of those the best match purely on QBO continues to be 2002 with the last 3 months all being nearly identical. Of the 15 winter months those years the AO was negative 12/15 months. The only year of those that didn't feature a -AO for 2/3 months was 2004-5 but it is notable that year started with an extremely +AO and flipped mid January. There were 2 other years that were somewhat close, 1955 and 1961. If we include those the AO was negative 17/21 months.

December looks to be following in the footsteps of November where a very negative departure for the first 15 days may be hard to overcome. We are below normal the rest of this week and then warm up briefly Monday and Tuesday before the next arctic front comes in later next week. that should take us through the 15th and will probably be negative 5 in the departure that's tough to overcome but we will see

Considering I was at 27 degrees with rain and some sleet this morning surprised that it flipped to snow specially in Piscataway

That's probably 1 to 2" an hour rates over there should be heading up this way shortly