binbisso

Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

Yes I read that also plus guidance looks like it wants to develop a negative EPO positive PNA in the post day 10. I read a few pages back were Don Sutherland said the PNA has more correlation to snowfall in the Northeast then the Nao or AO in december. Anyway guidance is all over the place as is to be expected as we head towards winter and the changing wavelength. One thing is clear is that the last month or so our weather has looked nothing like the euro weeklies or any monthly guidance had advertised. maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise this year

If you Loop the EPS starting from hour 72 from last night's run and go back to the 240 hour forecast it missed the n a o block completely still have 3 days to verify but that's a positive sign going forward that models maybe under estimating the block in the high latitudes this year

Yep that's an impressive negative Nao on today's Euro starting at day 4 and continuing through the end of the Run. Active subtropical jet to

Also nice change on the EPS at day 8 going forward in regards to the EPO Ridge. Doesn't look as good as the GEFS but a big difference from yesterday's run. Also noticing some lower Heights just west of Hawaii interesting to see how this all plays out

Yes I agree. Also the storm system this weekend as currently modeled would be snow for a good portion of our area even two weeks from now. good to have storms going underneath us. don't forget by the end of this month the normal 0C 850s are now in central New Jersey so we do not need Artic Air to snow here just need a system to get under us and the Nao should help

And that's a sweet look on the euro days 8 through 10 with plenty of cold air in Canada and the northern USA including the Northeast warmth to the South and a active subtropical jet. If that's the look we get I think we will snow very late this month or early December

That is an impressive negative nao on today's Euro and it's not in Fantasyland starting on day 4 and continuing through the end of the Run

I should add we've also had a very anomalous pattern across the continental US the last month or so with record cold out west and now in the east which at times have obliterated records, that has to relax it cannot continue. I think we're below normal through the first week of December and then we'll warm a bit before it gets cold the end of the month. My reasoning is purely on the mjo which really has been a main driver here for a while during the winter months. My assumption is now we're going through cold phases it will then head towards the warmer phases before looping back through 8 1 and 2 sometime late December.

I know Blue Wave has recently posted about how patterns have locked in this decade for a long period of time, however a locked in pattern usually last four to six weeks before there's a relaxation or change. In the current climate where in I would never believe a locked in cold pattern that last for months it's just not happening now. warm yes but not cold

Yes I agree and I've seen instances where five days out models showing the rain snow Line North of Albany and then ends up snowing in Virginia happened a few years ago in a March snow storm that missed us. What I like to look at in the 7 to 10 day range is pattern recognition. If the euro is showing a sub 990 low at the benchmark at day 7 does it have any Merit on its ensembles at 500mb + where is the mjo and the teleconnectors at that time. We've come a long way in forecasting weather since I was a kid and we can have an idea of what can happen in the 7 to 10 day range, especially temperatures but also storms, just the exact area they hit could be several hundred miles from what it showing at that time. Anything after 10 days though is a crapshoot

Oh if that's what he meant then I agree long-range forecasting is very difficult. I was responding to more of the last line in "waiting for the snow to Fall" before believing it.we can't go to the other end of the spectrum either

That's what the department of sanitation did last November when we got six inches of snow and it took me 3 hours to drive from White Plains to Mount Vernon normally a 15-minute ride. They waited till the snow started sticking and then called in personnel and it was too late by then. And you have Mets over the Internet that promote both cold and warm with their biases. For me the excitement of winter weather is tracking a storm, looking at something 7 to 10 days out and seeing how it evolves. Obviously it doesn't work out with regards to snow in most cases but I think most people enjoy the tracking

You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet

I have a question for anyone with a little more knowledge than me. With the mjo going through phases 7 8 1 and 2 in the next two weeks According to some guidance which composite would I look at to get an idea of sensible weather here. SON or OND since these Composites are completely different for the Northeast. Also is the mjo factored in to guidance or is guidance playing catch up to what the mjo is doing

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are delaying the breakdown of The Blocking and the cold can persist for another week or two right through November. Cik said -4.5 through the 12th with some really cold air to follow if guidance is correct. November could end up well below normal and possibly erase the warm fall Departures that we have so far. Also as some have stated here solid snow chance early next week and possibly another to follow. could be an epic November here. good to be tracking so early in the season

Most of today's 12z guidance is showing accumulating snow for the areas north and west of New York City and into Connecticut for Thursday night into Friday those models include the Euro the icon and the Canadian

The GFS is a Miss to the South but it made subtle improvements. We need the southern stream wave out ahead of the Artic front coming in which is what the icon does. The GFS lags the wave but it is faster than the two previous runs let's see what the other guidance does today

It's good to see the cold on our side of the globe with the record lows out west and possibly record lows in much of the East if the models are correct next weekend. I wonder if the low solar is having an impact on Temps this fall and will it carry over to winter? I'm hearing this is a lower minimum than 2008 and the lowest minimum since they've been keeping records

30 degrees for low last night if the models are remotely close to the cold there showing in the next 10 days or so it's going to be very hard for November to finish with a positive departure no matter what happens the end of the month. I'm loving that Aleutian low that looks to have staying power on the ensenbles. So we're basically in a negative EPO / positive PNA positive AO and Nao pattern going forward. the latter in part due to the polar vortex taking up shop in hudson bay/ southeast Canada. a pattern like this would be fine by me for the winter

Thank you the GFS has White Plains very close to the record on the 9th to CMC a little warmer at 25 degrees I know the GFS has a cold bias but with the way the 500 MB pattern looks I think there's a chance at least for some of the area. I'm always impressed with record lows in this warm climate

Northwest Burbs could get to freezing the next 3 nights and widespread 20s lows on guidance for next Friday and Saturday that's a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Wondering if guidance will Trend colder with the very impressive EPO / wpo block and piece of polar vortex rotating into Southern Canada. does anybody have record lows for the November 8th 9th time frame

I wouldn't trust any guidance showing sustained below-normal temperatures. Even the Euro had this weekend below normal in the 50s several days ago. I would also add that the pattern we are currently in would be a colder one come December January February as the wavelengths lengthen. It's a good sign to see higher Heights in the high-latitude regions hopefully this can stay as winter approaches

Regards to the MJO it is forecast to enter the cod according to most guidance or a very weak 4 5 or 6 phase. Is it safe to say that the mjo is not a driver for the next few weeks? Also when it enters a particular phase is there a lag time to our sensible weather?

It's very unlikely we'll get snow late October or early November however that is a fantastic look on the EPS GEFS and the euro weeklies heading into November. What really stands out to me is the negative Nao on all guidance. Now we just have to wait and see if it really happens