binbisso

Snow and sleet here coating on the ground in southern Westchester anybody watching the Giant game Heavy big wet flakes coating on the field fun to watch

Very light sleet here in southern Westchester looks like we're going to have to wait for the stronger lift to cool the whole column to change over to snow but it looks like this could be an icy scenario with my temperature at 28 degrees currently

Down to 29 degrees already dew point of 14 in southern Westchester

Nice trend on the AO today going to briefly peak positive many members now take it negative in the longer range also the mjo looks to die off in Phase 3 avoiding. 4 5 and 6 definitely a different progression than last year but we shall see as guidance usually doesn't have a good handle on the mjo

For the first part of the storm we need precipitation to get here as quickly as possible but even if it's delayed a couple hours I think we're going to see minor accumulations even down to the coast dew points are around 10 degrees right now and there should be good radiational cooling tonight away from the urban heat island as for the second part of the storm we're almost going to have to wait and watch the radar and see where the banding sets up very tough forecast really feel for all you meteorologist trying to put out a forecast for this

Good trend on the AO today after a brief Spike many members take it negative again also the mjo looks to die in Phase 3 avoiding 4 5 and 6 hopefully it will come out again in the colder phases later in December we shall see but definitely a different mjo progression than last year

The ukie has Northern New Jersey all of the lower Hudson Valley and all of Connecticut below zero c850s through hours 72 looks like a good front end thump don't have thermals be on that

The uk transfers to the Delmarva a hour 72 993 MB low south of Montauk at hour 96 looks like a big hit

Yes snow maps are useless 4 to 5 days out. But to say that the euro is to warm is inaccurate. We Will be in the mid to Upper twenties Sunday morning according to guidance with precipitation moving in. With the primary well to our West there will be a weak easterly flow and it will take time to warm the mid and lower levels. So I would say there's a better than 50-50 chance that a good portion of the region see snow Sunday morning before a transition to rain. Then it would all depend on where the secondary forms and if it closes off at H 5 we won't know that until Friday or Saturday but that's a crapshoot. should see our first minor accumulations for a good part of the area with this system in my opinion

Yes I read that also plus guidance looks like it wants to develop a negative EPO positive PNA in the post day 10. I read a few pages back were Don Sutherland said the PNA has more correlation to snowfall in the Northeast then the Nao or AO in december. Anyway guidance is all over the place as is to be expected as we head towards winter and the changing wavelength. One thing is clear is that the last month or so our weather has looked nothing like the euro weeklies or any monthly guidance had advertised. maybe we'll be in for a pleasant surprise this year

If you Loop the EPS starting from hour 72 from last night's run and go back to the 240 hour forecast it missed the n a o block completely still have 3 days to verify but that's a positive sign going forward that models maybe under estimating the block in the high latitudes this year

Yep that's an impressive negative Nao on today's Euro starting at day 4 and continuing through the end of the Run. Active subtropical jet to

Also nice change on the EPS at day 8 going forward in regards to the EPO Ridge. Doesn't look as good as the GEFS but a big difference from yesterday's run. Also noticing some lower Heights just west of Hawaii interesting to see how this all plays out

Yes I agree. Also the storm system this weekend as currently modeled would be snow for a good portion of our area even two weeks from now. good to have storms going underneath us. don't forget by the end of this month the normal 0C 850s are now in central New Jersey so we do not need Artic Air to snow here just need a system to get under us and the Nao should help

And that's a sweet look on the euro days 8 through 10 with plenty of cold air in Canada and the northern USA including the Northeast warmth to the South and a active subtropical jet. If that's the look we get I think we will snow very late this month or early December

That is an impressive negative nao on today's Euro and it's not in Fantasyland starting on day 4 and continuing through the end of the Run

I should add we've also had a very anomalous pattern across the continental US the last month or so with record cold out west and now in the east which at times have obliterated records, that has to relax it cannot continue. I think we're below normal through the first week of December and then we'll warm a bit before it gets cold the end of the month. My reasoning is purely on the mjo which really has been a main driver here for a while during the winter months. My assumption is now we're going through cold phases it will then head towards the warmer phases before looping back through 8 1 and 2 sometime late December.

I know Blue Wave has recently posted about how patterns have locked in this decade for a long period of time, however a locked in pattern usually last four to six weeks before there's a relaxation or change. In the current climate where in I would never believe a locked in cold pattern that last for months it's just not happening now. warm yes but not cold

Yes I agree and I've seen instances where five days out models showing the rain snow Line North of Albany and then ends up snowing in Virginia happened a few years ago in a March snow storm that missed us. What I like to look at in the 7 to 10 day range is pattern recognition. If the euro is showing a sub 990 low at the benchmark at day 7 does it have any Merit on its ensembles at 500mb + where is the mjo and the teleconnectors at that time. We've come a long way in forecasting weather since I was a kid and we can have an idea of what can happen in the 7 to 10 day range, especially temperatures but also storms, just the exact area they hit could be several hundred miles from what it showing at that time. Anything after 10 days though is a crapshoot

Oh if that's what he meant then I agree long-range forecasting is very difficult. I was responding to more of the last line in "waiting for the snow to Fall" before believing it.we can't go to the other end of the spectrum either

That's what the department of sanitation did last November when we got six inches of snow and it took me 3 hours to drive from White Plains to Mount Vernon normally a 15-minute ride. They waited till the snow started sticking and then called in personnel and it was too late by then. And you have Mets over the Internet that promote both cold and warm with their biases. For me the excitement of winter weather is tracking a storm, looking at something 7 to 10 days out and seeing how it evolves. Obviously it doesn't work out with regards to snow in most cases but I think most people enjoy the tracking

You can see the arctic front clearly on radar over the Upper Midwest if you draw a line from Springfield to South Bend to just north of Detroit. You can also see The Heavy band of snow with it. my experience has been when these Arctic fronts come in you get a heavy burst of snow which would be hard to accumulate during the daylight in November with marginal temperatures but we should see snow in the air for most areas tomorrow. that would be my bet

I have a question for anyone with a little more knowledge than me. With the mjo going through phases 7 8 1 and 2 in the next two weeks According to some guidance which composite would I look at to get an idea of sensible weather here. SON or OND since these Composites are completely different for the Northeast. Also is the mjo factored in to guidance or is guidance playing catch up to what the mjo is doing

I'm hearing the new Euro weeklies are delaying the breakdown of The Blocking and the cold can persist for another week or two right through November. Cik said -4.5 through the 12th with some really cold air to follow if guidance is correct. November could end up well below normal and possibly erase the warm fall Departures that we have so far. Also as some have stated here solid snow chance early next week and possibly another to follow. could be an epic November here. good to be tracking so early in the season

Most of today's 12z guidance is showing accumulating snow for the areas north and west of New York City and into Connecticut for Thursday night into Friday those models include the Euro the icon and the Canadian