binbisso

Snowing light to moderate a few tenths of an inch on the coldest surfaces here in the South Bronx at work

Yes I agree not saying we're going to have accumulating snow on Sunday especially for the coast but the trend has been further south and colder. If the upper level low closes off South of us and we get some good banding there's definitely a chance we see some accumulations interesting how this was supposed to be a warm cutter several days ago

Also with that Scandinavian Ridge which looks to develop by day 8 and continue throughout the end of the Run on the GEFS it looks to create a 50/50 low that stays there through the end of the Run that should somewhat mute how warm we get here. as others have said it's been a prominent feature on guidance since the spring

With all the warm talk on here wouldn't it be something if we reach average snowfall for January by the 8th as some guidance suggest. Also looking out into the extended the ensembles look like they want to create a ridge Bridge from the aleutians through the Arctic into Scandinavia and drop a trough late in the period in the east. There will also be plenty of cold air in Canada so any cutter should drop some cold air down into our area to somewhat offset the warm phase 4/5 mjo.

Both the GEFS and geps trying to bring the trough into the east late in the Run. Looks like they're trying to connect the ridge from Scandinavia right across the pole to the aleutians. Very late in the run the ridge looks to retrograde but days 13 to 15 look serviceable during Prime climo

Ukie is 993mb off the central New Jersey coast a hour 72 I don't have to thermals but temperatures should be crashing from this point forward

Yeah he's off many times as it looks like he usually picks the warmest guidance. There was one point in mid-December where he was three degrees off his 8 day forecast. It's always best to go with a blend of what the models show. If we use the 1991 to 2020 averages this December would probably end up right around normal which would be more appropriate to use as we are in a warmer climate now.

The cmc brings the vortex into central illinios and the 0c 850s into central florida. Suppressive look there

Bluewave the next seven days the mjo is forecast to be in 7 and 8 how come we are going to be well above normal in this timeframe

Wow a negative 2.6 departure wiped out in 6 days. My call for negative departures for December was way wrong and I made it on the 21st. No way I saw this warmth coming. plus 9 the last 6 days and that looks to continue for the last four. This hobby can make you look bad at times and is very humbling. Anyway the first 3 weeks were very good and much better than the recent December's we had I am slightly below normal in snowfall so far. here is hoping to a better January. Kudos to those who had the warm call for December

It's also very easy to be plus two in January and above normal in snowfall just keep the pattern active

I must be living in a different city I agree with PB. 7 straight weeks of below normal temps above normal snowfall for half of this sub forum and now we're in a 10 day or so period of above normal temps. I mean it can't stay below normal for the whole winter we're going to go above normal for stretches. I know it sucks being around the holiday time that we warm up but what can we do.

Nice. its been a wintry first 22 days of december for many in this sub forum and all of new england. When you look at bluewaves map of the whole country most lr forecasters actually got the longwave pattern right except for the Northeast. Wonder if they didnt take into account the 50/50 area which has had consistently lower heights this month and probably contributed to the - departures

The ao was very pos the first half of december and we were slightly below normal thru the 15th. If the tpv takes up shop over northern canada/hudson bay in early jan. as some guidance suggests then it will be plenty cold with a pos ao.

Yea so much for the one day in and out cold snap. We mild up for a week then who knows after that. Too many conflicting signals in the longer range

oops got my days mixed up. Should have been xmas day.

Yeah I mean the next four days are averaging about -9. This is no in and out arctic cold snap. That's a 10 40 mb High sitting over us through Tuesday before the next cold front comes in obviously the air mass is going to modify but not make up those departures to make it close to normal for the next 8 days. It's just like the post up above that shows the GFS MOS for 6z showing 53° for Christmas Eve. that's irresponsible when the euro is 15 degrees colder for the same day.but everybody likes to Cherry pic so it's hard to get accurate information. The fact is we finally got December to be a winter month. By Saturday most of the subforum is -2 to -3 in departures and half the subforum is above normal in snowfall

Today Scattered snow showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight Scattered snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. I would really love to know where you get your data from I have to assume that you pick the warmest guidance and post it here. If you take the average of the official National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days it's slightly under 32 degrees which is about 4 degrees below normal which means we will be -1.9 through the 24th of December. Consequently we will have to finish the last 7 days averaging + 7 just to get to normal. The probability of that happening is highly unlikely. December will finish with a negative departure.

Hi Bob visiting from the New York City forum love your analysis and others on here as I have been following her for a while now. Looking at that map you just posted it doesn't look that ugly. From what I can tell there is still plenty of cold air in Canada. if you look at the 850s they are still below normal there. building EPO Ridge and still some Reds over Greenland with lower Heights in the 50/50 region. I don't think it would take long for this to flip to a good pattern.probably the next several panels.obviously it's 384 hours out so taken with a grain of salt

Agree and I see what you're saying about the fast Pack Flow as you can see the trough entering the West Coast and another one in Northwest Canada knocking down the ridge. Get rid of that low in Northwest Canada and extend that ridge Northward to drop the shortwave over the Great Lakes Southwest

Or get the ridge out west more north to south then the Northeast to Southwest orientation as shown today which would dig that Great Lakes shortwave South /west and then that could be fun.

I usually favor the Euro over the other operational models but the Euro just caved to the GFS for the pre-Christmas storm. Verbatim it's a Miss but that is awfully close and a very nice-looking setup

10 to 15 degrees below normal for 5 days in this warm climate is pretty impressive to me especially with all the warm calls for December

Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 50 50 100 NW3 29.42F FOG Bronx Lehman C N/A 50 48 93 NW3 N/A LaGuardia Arpt DRZL/FOG 50 48 93 NW7 29.40F VSB 3/4 Queens College N/A 54 54 100 S5 N/A Kennedy Intl LGT RAIN 54 54 100 CALM 29.41F FOG Breezy Point N/A 50 N/A N/A N2 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 54 52 94 NW3 N/A Staten Island N/A 50 50 100 NE5 N/A Newark/Liberty FOG 51 51 100 N7 29.40F VSB 1 Teterboro CLOUDY 51 51 100 NE5 29.39F FOG $$