NorthHillsWx

I'm not convinced that westerly shear is the culprit for weakening here. I think the problem a TC experiences in its current location is downsloping off of Kyushu's mountainous terrain. About 12 hours ago, there was a pass that showed significant deformation in the eyewall and a replacement cycle in progress. Then, the entire western band disintegrated as the northern circulation moved over the greater Kyushu landmass. If you watch satellite and radar animation through the same timeframe, it's rather neat to see the landmass of Kyushu having effects on Shanshan's structure. I agree we're looking at a Cat 1-2 in windspeeds, most likely. But in hindsight, this is a massive typhoon and large circulation. A dangerous situation is unfolding if it continues to crawl at a slow pace through landfall and progresses slowly over the Kagoshima prefecture. Precipitation amounts may lead to a historical event, unfortunately. That theory could definitely hold weight, we see that all the time with storms that approach high elevation areas in the pacific. However this storm has been dealing with westerly shear to varying degrees for some days now, even when it was at its peak, and it seemed that once the central convection began to wane, likely due to upwelling and not getting the same interaction with ULL including the difluent flow over top and ventilation, the shear was able to really rip the western eyewall apart quickly. I’m not sure what the cause is but modeling consistently overestimates LF intensity in this region really unlike anywhere else that is frequently impacted by typhoons. I’d say that overall, landmasses in this area probably are not modeled correctly in terms of their impact on impeding cyclonic flow for high intensity storms. This one’s been fun to watch, another storm that spent most of its life in radar range. We’ve been spoiled by these this season

Due likely to upwelling and westerly shear, Shanshan is a shell of its former self. Massive flooding impacts likely, but this will be a cat 1, minimal cat 2 landfall. It’s so hard to get a high end landfall in mainland Japan. As for flooding, this could be catastrophic given the topography of that area and the slow movement of the system. I do not want to mitigate the impact by stating the LF intensity will be significantly lower than feared

It’s unbelievable I’m saying this but we could use some rain. The fall food plots are drying out quick and I’m back to watering my yard every day

I’m not sure the westward corrections are finished either. It’s already trending west of track today

Shanshan looks extremely ragged this morning. Not sure this was expected

Agreed. But there’s a long way to go to reach the 11/5 when we’re at 3/1 on September 2 with nothing on the horizon *if* that happens (per my post). That wasn’t a call or a forecast, just simply saying that’s when I’d have doubt on the crazy pre-season forecasts we were provided

I’ll believe it when I see it. This is a notorious track for a weakening 70-85 kt storm after a week of major hurricane hits on models. Shear and cooler waters ensure this will be weakening into landfall the only question is how much. Still a serious storm, don’t get me wrong, but this won’t be close to cat 4, and I STRONGLY doubt cat 3

When do we press the “bust” button on the hyperactive season? My opinion is September 2. If models are completely dead then, it’s almost impossible to reach 20 storms (15 in the second week of September through the end of the season). This year, with the pre-season forecasts and recency bias, less than 20 named storms would be a bit of a bust, but 15 or less would me a MAJOR bust. It only takes one, but with the most aggressive pre season forecasts EVER, this seems like a year that the term BUST has a wider goal posts than normal

This weather is incredible.

If we make it 21 days, that will mark the 3rd 3 week stretch without measurable rainfall this year! Talk about inconsistent rains. That’s actually a wild stat

Now looks highly likely we’ll make it 21 days through the end of the month without measurable rainfall. Last measurable rain here was the 9th. At least we’re guaranteed an above average month!

East and Central Pac on fire. We know what that usually means for our side…

Hurricane Michael confirms…

It hasn’t rained at my house since August 9. Not that we need anything after the deluge that week but had to start watering the garden and yard again.

That looks like Florence. Charley was pretty much open on S side in the Carolina’s. Your squiggly is probably it’s motion or lack thereof

The day before people were talking about it possibly being a major hurricane and it was pegged at 100 mph by NHC 12 hours before landfall so only seeing gusts into the 80’s is a collapse. I’m not saying it wasn’t impactful but I’ve watched a lot of chaser feeds and videos from the island and it was run of the mill cat 1 stuff. That’s a far cry from NHC forecast of a 105-110 mph storm over the island.

It is. And it was the wildest weather event of my life in Raleigh. Not sure we’ll ever see that again in our lifetime here

I haven’t seen anything impressive from anyone on Bermuda. Looks like this thing completely unraveled before landfall

It has also more than doubled estimated damage losses from last season. 20 storms vs 5. Now that’s an efficiently damaging season thus far

Scrambled eggs!!!

Imo the delayed Caribbean development ultimately doomed this one to mediocrity. It didn’t have enough time to mix out dry air while conditions were right and its starting point was too low so it developed into a Cinnabon storm. Unless these are given lots of time they usually go the same route as this one- a broad storm with a hollow core. Now it’s experiencing the SW shear and it’s time to strengthen has ceased. That being said, this will be a solid hit on Bermuda. It won’t take the eye making a rare direct hit to have big impacts with the broad eyewall. And what recon has shown is a large system with a ton of wind energy, so higher elevations will experience prolonged hurricane force winds and waves and surge will be amplified as well. But it was clear that NHC sticking to high end of intensity forecasts on this one was probably not going to pan out. A prolific wave producer for the east coast- I’m currently in nags head and about to hit the water somewhere south of here. Going to be great surfing this afternoon.

One word summarizes this storm: meh

It’s been 924 days since Raleigh’s last accumulating snow

Flash Flood Emergency for Greensboro

Video I took tonight as the cell was winding down. Yes, that’s a lot of water and yes, I should have shut the door