crossbowftw3

Or maybe Matt Ryan actually holding onto a 25+ point lead for once will cause it to snow around here

Shoutouts to the 25-30+ degree temperature drop near me in about nine hours as well right at the very end

And just as I said this the white rain began in earnest

Most everywhere else in Sullivan seemed to have gotten 7+ while I maybe got in the ballpark of 4-6” which then became waterlogged during the night if this last thump does transpire maybe 1-3” more on top

800’ here in Sullivan and maybe I managed 4-6” that melted and became cement once we changed to rain during the night, with maybe 1-3” more if this last thump does take shape. Everywhere else in the county certainly got 7”+

Rain definitely got to my location overnight and maybe even further north, areas around got 5-7” before that happened from what I can see from storm reports. The most recent HRRR suggests another 4-5” here and 9” at the high elevations, I don’t believe it even at pure 10:1

Rain definitely got in the mix overnight even to my location; car tops and trees have been cleaned off, even “holes” in the existing pack thereby making any accurate measurement difficult HRRR somehow suggests another 4-5” today for me, even 8-9” for the high points north of me but I don’t believe that

Gonna be riding an interesting line still even after the colder solutions began to take hold whether I still only see maybe 4-6 or go for something more like 8-10” I like maybe maybe going for 7-8” where I’m at, with the double digits reserved for MSV elevation and up. I’d really want to just go to Hunter and watch the fireworks if I could. Nonetheless as the NE forum folks have termed it..we’re gonna need a bigger boat if the massive signal for next week plays out. Incredible timing, but that serves as a double edged sword. Travel nightmare, but a White Christmas finally? Who’s to say at this rate.

Warning here now for 6-9” and maybe some ice, 18z HRRR while out of range depicts pretty well how I’d expect the elevation game to unfold. See the blue hole in Sullivan? That’s about where I am. Always having wildly different outcomes on winter storms than the other 80% above 1200’ compared to my 700-900’. I want to get to those elevations minimum for the goodies, otherwise I’m looking at 32-34 degree 4-6” slop

Should be quite easy for those three to remain all snow all the way through and get the double digits around here, but I’ll feel kinda high and dry if I do stay around 4-6” and those three do all make 12+

Couldn’t say I’d be shocked at that outcome since my ultimate results of any storm always differ wildly in these mixed bag situations as opposed to Rock Hill/MSV/what have you given the 300-400+ elevation changes in the matter of roughly 30 miles between where I am and those locations

I’m swinging a bit lower end for MBY because I’m lower than most (maybe 750-900) but I should still pull at least 4-6 without much of a sweat before any junk mixes in if it gets here

Finally reporting back for duty for another shift of wintertime at the same place as always 5” here and maybe we can squeeze out another 1-2” in Sullivan. Fun little storm and got in a trial run of new snowblower (it’s solid as I’d hope it’d be).

Binghamton is over 13” and still coming down for maybe one more hour there

Came up with maybe 1-2” of slush and there were definitely other ptypes mixing in through the night to make it feel like pure cement

An inch or two of slush, hard to tell exactly what ptypes there even were for most of the night

From my best guesstimate with a lack of light to confirm I do not believe I actually saw any accumulations outside of grasses. Binghamton NWS office has a foot OTG and still snowing

Last night’s and this morning’s model runs are beginning to dance away from any real meaningful snow for those of us here who have that chance. CNY is looking like they’ll go gangbusters on this one lol

I’m sure someone would do good with this information

I’m about 1k feet lower in elevation than you. You probably will do better than me considering

I’m not particularly excited either but at my lower elevation I’m already preparing to get skunked

Midday NAMs painting general 4-8 (considering awful ratios) dropping to 2-4 my way in Sullivan

From a mid afternoon high of 51 for me Monday on the euro and still being low 40s before precip moves in it seems I stay 33-34 most of the night with mixing most of the time enough to probably slash anything for me by half minimum but places higher in elevation will do well—MSV and further up

The impeccably good timing is the one thing that’ll make this work, otherwise not so much

None of this surprises me anymore NAM out of best range but still