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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    I agree with this right down to a T. Right now I like the general idea of a 2-4/3-6 (lower elevations maybe not even 1-2) snow for most but the 6-8 is likely confined to higher peaks (generally >1.5k feet) elevation dependent events always wind up this way.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Wouldn't doubt it. In air to coast seems more probable.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Models still showing some form of snow. Euro is all on its own with low end warning event @10:1 which when adjusted is really 3-6". Realistically inland 1-3 with elevated 3-6" and maybe coatings to the coast then we officially close the book on snowfall accumulations for the next 6+ months.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Definitely not inconceivable that at least a few inches will fall Friday. Obvious limiting factor is April sun angles, but still. Favor areas north of BGM for anything over 3 inches ATM.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Same boat here. Just a few counties northeast of the watch and we've never gained much opportunity to destabilize. Sure it was pretty windy this morning but it's slowed since. No signs of clearing, but if we do there'll be little to no time to effectively destabilize before the line pushes through.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Guessing I'm basically in the middle on this one (away from the LLJ, away from the low track) so I'm thinking only really 40-50 with 50+ at elevations for a wide area that is in between these two features. Anyone think the same?
  7. crossbowftw3
    What are you all thinking for everywhere in between the actual low and the LLJ? Here where I'm at guessing only 40-50 at most with 50+ in higher elevations (Sullivan County)
  8. crossbowftw3
    This'll be fascinating to watch. Stuck pretty much away from the LLJ and from the low track. Guessing all I'll see is 40-50 at 750' while the highest peaks will be rollicking.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Probably not April 15th either but 4/24/10 looks closest to this at first glance.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Lines on the left give the big hint. This sounding is excessively containinated
  11. crossbowftw3
    if this goes signifcant damaging wind event with several embedded tornadoes do you think it could be an even more volatile setup for that than 1/10-1/11?
  12. crossbowftw3
    This is no 4/27 but in every way it will be devastating to someone by the time the sun rises Monday morning.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Not personally sure myself. From my research of that event they only did 60% sig because they were certain a major outbreak would happen. A big outbreak did happen, but fell quite short of verifying. They did want to do day 2 high for 4/27 but questions about the morning wave prevented that. As we know now, that morning wave (really both) didn't. 4/27 probably would have verified 60% with room to spare in all honesty.
  14. crossbowftw3
    4/7/06 and 4/14/12
  15. crossbowftw3
    My own digging through model evidence makes me think something closer to 4/24/10 or Veteran's Day 2002. which wouldn't be 4/27 bad but still plenty bad on its own.
  16. crossbowftw3
    It's certainly very puzzling. I'm also agreeing based on early guesswork that we're seeing EF3 damage but how did this car get so terribly mangled? That'd be a sign of EF4 winds.
  17. crossbowftw3
    This car though...
  18. crossbowftw3
    This threat is still very much in play. That complex is weakening and clearing is happening behind it.
  19. crossbowftw3
    If they go high risk if not by 0600 then almost certainly by 1630, multiple precluding factors still at hand
  20. crossbowftw3
    Pure eye candy sounding
  21. crossbowftw3
    Likely tons of discussions happening now at SPC hence why it's late.
  22. crossbowftw3
    I would guess the Warm Front stalls within a 10-20 mile radius (+-) of Chicago metro. Even if the front gets hung up everything south of that is primed and ready.
  23. crossbowftw3
    That they are. This one seems a bit less obvious than 5/20 at first but seems more probable to verify. Do they go high? It still boils down to what kind of boundaries morning convection leaves/how fast atmosphere recovers.
  24. crossbowftw3
    HRRR STP values give me flashbacks
  25. crossbowftw3
    The HRRR greatly oversold 5/20 so YMMV
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