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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    What are you all thinking for everywhere in between the actual low and the LLJ? Here where I'm at guessing only 40-50 at most with 50+ in higher elevations (Sullivan County)
  2. crossbowftw3
    This'll be fascinating to watch. Stuck pretty much away from the LLJ and from the low track. Guessing all I'll see is 40-50 at 750' while the highest peaks will be rollicking.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Probably not April 15th either but 4/24/10 looks closest to this at first glance.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Lines on the left give the big hint. This sounding is excessively containinated
  5. crossbowftw3
    if this goes signifcant damaging wind event with several embedded tornadoes do you think it could be an even more volatile setup for that than 1/10-1/11?
  6. crossbowftw3
    This is no 4/27 but in every way it will be devastating to someone by the time the sun rises Monday morning.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Not personally sure myself. From my research of that event they only did 60% sig because they were certain a major outbreak would happen. A big outbreak did happen, but fell quite short of verifying. They did want to do day 2 high for 4/27 but questions about the morning wave prevented that. As we know now, that morning wave (really both) didn't. 4/27 probably would have verified 60% with room to spare in all honesty.
  8. crossbowftw3
    4/7/06 and 4/14/12
  9. crossbowftw3
    My own digging through model evidence makes me think something closer to 4/24/10 or Veteran's Day 2002. which wouldn't be 4/27 bad but still plenty bad on its own.
  10. crossbowftw3
    It's certainly very puzzling. I'm also agreeing based on early guesswork that we're seeing EF3 damage but how did this car get so terribly mangled? That'd be a sign of EF4 winds.
  11. crossbowftw3
    This car though...
  12. crossbowftw3
    This threat is still very much in play. That complex is weakening and clearing is happening behind it.
  13. crossbowftw3
    If they go high risk if not by 0600 then almost certainly by 1630, multiple precluding factors still at hand
  14. crossbowftw3
    Pure eye candy sounding
  15. crossbowftw3
    Likely tons of discussions happening now at SPC hence why it's late.
  16. crossbowftw3
    I would guess the Warm Front stalls within a 10-20 mile radius (+-) of Chicago metro. Even if the front gets hung up everything south of that is primed and ready.
  17. crossbowftw3
    That they are. This one seems a bit less obvious than 5/20 at first but seems more probable to verify. Do they go high? It still boils down to what kind of boundaries morning convection leaves/how fast atmosphere recovers.
  18. crossbowftw3
    HRRR STP values give me flashbacks
  19. crossbowftw3
    The HRRR greatly oversold 5/20 so YMMV
  20. crossbowftw3
    Wouldn't shock me if SPC goes high and/or expands that MDT area. All going to be dependent on morning convection.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Some pretty impressive parameters setting up tomorrow. Regional outbreak with multiple strong tornadoes seems like a solid bet.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Sleet/rain mix
  23. crossbowftw3
    I'm about 800' in the southern Catskills. Round 1 for us is wrapping up, and at my elevation I'm expecting to warm up to rain/mixing by afternoon. Good luck up there.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Looks like I got sucked into one last screw job by every model. Hoping for 2" now at best.
  25. crossbowftw3
    I get that, was simply pointing out how models seem to be distancing themsleves away from that idea. Like you I'm 20-30 miles north of 84 (at ~800) and am also only expecting 2-3" before likely mixing (or even a full changeover, which looks likelier) cuts down totals. MSV north looks good. Largely elevation dependent, but yeah, same points as provided before. They have their reasons and I respect them.
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