crossbowftw3

6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.

The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.

If the tornado threat was slightly lower this would be a case where a PDS SVR watch would get issued. It would still be entirely possible given current circumstances, however.

Yeah for you guys closer to NYC you will probably get hit by this. Up here north of 84 we will miss this to the north. Could count on possible redevelopment but without much sun we haven't been able to destabilize nearly as much. I expect 1630 day 1 to re-orient probabilities and probably remove enhanced risk as well. BGM take: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1025 AM Update... SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 for a good portion of PA, and just clipping Luzerne county until 3 PM. Organized convection was plowing through central PA as of this writing. It appears to be mainly elevated as analyses show CIN and low level stability, while mid level lapse rate exceed 7C/km. Latest CAMS guidance appears to be struggling with this earlier than expected feature. Best surface based instability and shear will be focusing mostly south of the BGM forecast area for the rest of today and the current line should propagate south of our area. There is indication that an approaching wave could trigger additional thunderstorm development over western NY, then sweep it through CNY/NEPA during the mid-late afternoon, but it`s more probable this will contain sub-severe, garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Plans now are to monitor the Watch conditions for the next couple hours and likely cancel it by 1 PM. Remainder of forecast fairly routine with some temperature updates due to cloud cover and forecast rainfall.

Temperature spiked back up to 75 but dew point"only" at 65 now

At my location it's tumbled 12 degrees in the past hour so I doubt we have much if any instability left for this second wave. Granted I live very close to the eastern border between NY and PA.

It likely will run out of both time and instability the further east it progresses and the further in time we go.

I'm still south of there. One county south.

80/58 at my location in SE NY near the southernmost edge of the line. That portion looks weak thus far.

Assuming a severe watch will follow for the counties south of there, if the line can hold for much after sunset that is.

Clouds quickly moving back in. 77/dew of 60 which has been in place since this morning. Probably not moving much further up.

I'm assuming this as well. 65/60 where I'm at (Sullivan NY) but the line stoll looks on track to weaken by the time it makes it here after dark. Not seeing much suggesting discrete potential either.

Wouldn't be shocked if it keeps trending NW.

HRRR often likes to go bonkers with no inherent triggers for storms. See last year 5/20

No. Scattered wind damage at best; low 60s dews and trash LRs.

A little questionable to see this enhanced. Tomorrow looks active but the day 2 upgrade seems to have jumped the gun a bit..it'll be active for sure at least

Looks like a typical NEastern severe setup with our typical caveats. That said, can count on some scattered wind damage.

Severe warning for Yates for hail. Storm looks elevated so wind probably isn't a problem there but count on 1" hail possibly.

Changeover has finally arrived for me

Still stuck at 40/38 but the changeover is encroaching on me quickly. Still praying for 1" before the precip shuts off by around Midnight.

BGM is actually seeing snow? Meanwhile like 90 minutes south of there I'm 43/40 and just raining

Looks like my switch could commence later next week. 10 day forecast slowly surges us up until we hit near-70 by next Saturday and only goes up from there.

Hoping for the best with the squalls. Regardless by Memorial Day we'll all be installing our Air Conditioners and this'll be but a passing memory in the wind as we roast in 80 degree/65+ dew point heat

Pretty much praying for an inch now but tomorrow's squalls look more juicy anyway. Gonna feel like a mid winter day even in between the possible squalls. Hoping whoever has to go on the roads are ready for them.

Still count on a burst of snow but the writing on the wall was pretty evident