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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    And to this extent my earliest best reasonable guess is a widespread 6-10+ storm...to a point. it'll be in Wednesday out Thursday. The 20"+ runs seem unlikely unless the storm sits and just parks for a time. It'll be cold too, ratios likely 15:1 or thereabout. No concern for mixing with temperatures likely hovering in the mid 20s by day, going to mid teens by night. Better picture of the situation will start happening by tomorrow.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Very good point. Like where I am right now but we are still a day away from having the wave that will become the catalyst for this storm able to be properly sampled
  3. crossbowftw3
    Even here in Sullivan I do get the sneaking feeling this could evolve to give NYC more snow than we will have here. We will have higher ratios here (I'm thinking 15:1 based on the words of Walt Drag), mind you
  4. crossbowftw3
    Member 1 looks kinda odd compared to the rest
  5. crossbowftw3
    The NYC crowd aren't necessarily finding the negatives with this setup, but strangely enough there might be something here for them assuming mixing doesn't actually come into play. Nonetheless I like where a good deal of us here are sitting...ratios over 10:1 (perhaps approaching >15:1?) with every model spitting out >8" for most inland areas (save for GFS)....so basically very few negatives really at hand for us unless you're more west
  6. crossbowftw3
    Liking where I'm sitting more and more here. Aside from the GFS almost every single one likes the Catskills for 8"+ on this one. Today's going to be critical to watch the models, especially GFS. @wdrag how high do you think ratios get inland? I was thinking up to around 15:1 but with P&C forecast giving me a high of 27 and a low of 15 Wednesday I'd think maybe a bit higher?
  7. crossbowftw3
    Still looks good today. Don't think anyone would complain with a widespread 6-12 storm this early in the Winter. However I still raise the concern about south trends and this becoming a 95 special, if not a complete miss
  8. crossbowftw3
    I should also say I do feel a bit nervous of this evolving into a 95 special. Every time I see snowy on the EPS to the coast it always swings that way by 48 hours
  9. crossbowftw3
    Or 40 hours in the case of Thanksgiving weekend last year. Granted mixing issues meant it was never snow for more than maybe ~8 hours at a time
  10. crossbowftw3
    Liking what I am seeing so far for my odds here in the Catskills. Kinda nervous though that this could evolve into a 95 special but that may not be overly likely for now
  11. crossbowftw3
    Liking what I see so far but still five days out so plenty of time for change. It'll be about damn time we get our first big boy snow of the year if things continue to trend in the correct direction.
  12. crossbowftw3
    It's definitely coming down in the Catskills. A dusting/coating on most everything, even the roads. Maybe I can sneak 1-2"? Would be surprised if more than 1" fell though.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Getting it pretty good in Sullivan now, only really seeing the grass getting coated as of the last 10 minutes. I'll be surprised if we can get more than an inch, but it's well appreciated regardless. Only about 3" of snow so far on the season which is kinda pitiful.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Clouds moved back over, sustained wind of 16 gusts to around 30 or so. Got the feel of a big storm without anything actually happening
  15. crossbowftw3
    In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture
  16. crossbowftw3
    As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Seeing lots of changeovers happening for our New England friends....they'll be getting whalloped later on.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Widespread outage event for New England while most of us here will probably see more isolated-scattered with our big issue for the rest of the day being wind. It should be said most in the New England forum are already changing over...hours ahead of schedule
  19. crossbowftw3
    Hearing snow in the air east of of me across Orange/Putnam/Dutchess....it's coming, most of you should gradually change over before the big boy band begins
  20. crossbowftw3
    The ratios will be so low though that the threat for rather widespread outages will only go up through the day...still guessing 7-8:1 for a large amount of the time. If only Cantore was able to station himself in Worcester. That's a sure recipe for some thundersnow to happen
  21. crossbowftw3
    Gotta wonder if that's the beginning of the band that's going to produce the 2-3" hourly rates once it arrives into CT/MA
  22. crossbowftw3
    Some eminent signs of the change beginning in W MA/CT as well
  23. crossbowftw3
    It's dry up here but feels rather moist. New England is going to get absolutely whacked once they change over.
  24. crossbowftw3
    High and dry in the Catskills (as I suspected) but the atmosphere feels like it's got a lot of moisture to it. Once this winds up its going to absolutely pound in New England.
  25. crossbowftw3
    WPC blends every model but mostly takes from NBM if I'm not mistaken
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