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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Finished up with 13” (margin of error +/-2) here in Sullivan county @sferic @snywx how did you two do?
  2. crossbowftw3
    There will be a massive gradient here with me only getting a foot and everywhere north getting so much more.
  3. crossbowftw3
    I don’t know how but only got a foot here in the Catskills even though snow will continue to fall for the next few hours. The band parked too far north for me I suppose.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Only got a foot....somehow but it is still coming down
  5. crossbowftw3
    Would not be shocked if we get reports of Hunter going over 50”.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Jealous!
  7. crossbowftw3
    Busted forecast to an incredibly positive degree. IMBY our forecast for around 18-24 still seems good but kind of pathetic in comparison, lmao.
  8. crossbowftw3
    Holy cow you guys are getting smoked. I may still get to 2’ here but you guys won this thing easily. Someone in elevation probably has 40+
  9. crossbowftw3
    Closing in on what also looks like 2” of fluff. This should pretty well compete with Pi Day. That was 26” in 15 hours.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Finally commenced in Sullivan. 23/11 with point and click forecast of 21” now. Probably the last time @sferic and I see bare ground for a while, lol
  11. crossbowftw3
    First flakes finally have commenced @ 3:02 PM. 23/9
  12. crossbowftw3
    Narrowsburg, ~800 feet. Pretty close to them though
  13. crossbowftw3
    Got the classic snow feel out there in the Catskills. Still swinging for 12-18 but probably upper bound for that. Ratios still look quite good. Only concern is that dews have dropped to below 10 up here and that snow may not start until after sunset. Otherwise good to go. someone >1500’ probably gets >2’ and maybe close to 30”, probably Hunter
  14. crossbowftw3
    Likely happening over 12-18 hours, closer to perhaps 15 or so between mid-afternoon tomorrow and rapidly tapering off Thursday morning. The 1-2” (isolated 3?) inch hourly rates likely kicks off by 8-9 PM tomorrow night and rips until early morning. Lighter snows will continue past sunrise and continue thereafter until it ends by...realistically anywhere from 7 AM-Noon.
  15. crossbowftw3
    For that matter what were our ratios for Pi Day? @sferic
  16. crossbowftw3
    Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Yep, gonna swing slightly under IMBY but a foot is pretty secure I think. Ratios still good but BGM did mention this in their AFD: Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft advancing into at least the southeastern portion of our area overnight Wednesday night, yet still below freezing. This may contribute to some riming on ice crystals and thus slightly lower snow-to-liquid ratios. should not impact ratios too much but might create our upper bound at 12-18.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Pretty reasonable for us north and west crew, falls in line with @Rjay had earlier. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/ Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power outages.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Watches upgraded...seems pretty reasonable with the totals. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/ Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power outages.
  20. crossbowftw3
    BGM still talking between 12 and 14:1 as well. Pretty good I'd say. Helps limit power issues to a nonzero but quite limited factor and will be so much easier to clear. More concerned with areas closer to NYC and on coasts that do snow, paste bomb.
  21. crossbowftw3
    what have we got for ratios? Still over 12:1 I assume?
  22. crossbowftw3
    Entirely possible.
  23. crossbowftw3
    We gangbusters. Still crazy good ratios as well.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Someone across CPA probably steals our jack and gets the 2' but I think we're good to go for 12-18. I don't think gusts get over 30. My point and click for tomorrow night is 10-15 gusts 25. Power issues should be quite limited but nonzero--we can be thankful the ratios will be good here.
  25. crossbowftw3
    BGM has kept pretty steady between 12:1-14:1 with their discussions so that makes sense. Temperatures don't break 30 Wednesday daytime and fall to between 17-20 nighttime. All I need to know--good work as always.
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