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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Closing in on what also looks like 2” of fluff. This should pretty well compete with Pi Day. That was 26” in 15 hours.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Finally commenced in Sullivan. 23/11 with point and click forecast of 21” now. Probably the last time @sferic and I see bare ground for a while, lol
  3. crossbowftw3
    First flakes finally have commenced @ 3:02 PM. 23/9
  4. crossbowftw3
    Narrowsburg, ~800 feet. Pretty close to them though
  5. crossbowftw3
    Got the classic snow feel out there in the Catskills. Still swinging for 12-18 but probably upper bound for that. Ratios still look quite good. Only concern is that dews have dropped to below 10 up here and that snow may not start until after sunset. Otherwise good to go. someone >1500’ probably gets >2’ and maybe close to 30”, probably Hunter
  6. crossbowftw3
    Likely happening over 12-18 hours, closer to perhaps 15 or so between mid-afternoon tomorrow and rapidly tapering off Thursday morning. The 1-2” (isolated 3?) inch hourly rates likely kicks off by 8-9 PM tomorrow night and rips until early morning. Lighter snows will continue past sunrise and continue thereafter until it ends by...realistically anywhere from 7 AM-Noon.
  7. crossbowftw3
    For that matter what were our ratios for Pi Day? @sferic
  8. crossbowftw3
    Correct. It may sneak into Sullivan for a time but probably not a guarantee. Like I said, won’t impact ratios too terribly. I would guess NEPA gets 10-12:1 while we stay closer to 12-14:1.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Yep, gonna swing slightly under IMBY but a foot is pretty secure I think. Ratios still good but BGM did mention this in their AFD: Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft advancing into at least the southeastern portion of our area overnight Wednesday night, yet still below freezing. This may contribute to some riming on ice crystals and thus slightly lower snow-to-liquid ratios. should not impact ratios too much but might create our upper bound at 12-18.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Pretty reasonable for us north and west crew, falls in line with @Rjay had earlier. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/ Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power outages.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Watches upgraded...seems pretty reasonable with the totals. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 NYZ055>057-062-PAZ038>040-162000- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0007.201216T2000Z-201217T1500Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.W.0005.201216T1800Z-201217T1500Z/ Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 259 PM EST Tue Dec 15 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 16 inches. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne counties. In New York, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour possible late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, especially at higher elevations, may cause some blowing snow and isolated power outages.
  12. crossbowftw3
    BGM still talking between 12 and 14:1 as well. Pretty good I'd say. Helps limit power issues to a nonzero but quite limited factor and will be so much easier to clear. More concerned with areas closer to NYC and on coasts that do snow, paste bomb.
  13. crossbowftw3
    what have we got for ratios? Still over 12:1 I assume?
  14. crossbowftw3
    Entirely possible.
  15. crossbowftw3
    We gangbusters. Still crazy good ratios as well.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Someone across CPA probably steals our jack and gets the 2' but I think we're good to go for 12-18. I don't think gusts get over 30. My point and click for tomorrow night is 10-15 gusts 25. Power issues should be quite limited but nonzero--we can be thankful the ratios will be good here.
  17. crossbowftw3
    BGM has kept pretty steady between 12:1-14:1 with their discussions so that makes sense. Temperatures don't break 30 Wednesday daytime and fall to between 17-20 nighttime. All I need to know--good work as always.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Walt, What's your best guess on ratios inland? Still between 12-14:1 or even up to 16?
  19. crossbowftw3
    Blizzard warnings definitely still do exist and get used. Some were used this past January but in the Upper Midwest.
  20. crossbowftw3
    As an aside I sometimes love Joe’s ability to prop up the most ridiculous possible outcomes for a storm.
  21. crossbowftw3
    While I do like this, trends tonight will be very telling. 18z Euro isn't helping.
  22. crossbowftw3
    0z is going to be huge for us north of 84.
  23. crossbowftw3
    18z Euro....off hour but nerves beginning in earnest again Went from 10-12 to 6-8 this run. 0z will be huge and very telling for the fates of everyone north of 84.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Fascinating, lmao... This is where the 10 degree dewpoint line likely is. Per @NJwx85 on NYC forum. It's basically over our heads. If models account for this look out
  25. crossbowftw3
    30 miles north of 84, and under 10-15 miles from where that line is set up. I have to imagine further adjustments will be made. Still thinking failure mode will be 3-6 or maginal warning.
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