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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Walt, What's your best guess on ratios inland? Still between 12-14:1 or even up to 16?
  2. crossbowftw3
    Blizzard warnings definitely still do exist and get used. Some were used this past January but in the Upper Midwest.
  3. crossbowftw3
    As an aside I sometimes love Joe’s ability to prop up the most ridiculous possible outcomes for a storm.
  4. crossbowftw3
    While I do like this, trends tonight will be very telling. 18z Euro isn't helping.
  5. crossbowftw3
    0z is going to be huge for us north of 84.
  6. crossbowftw3
    18z Euro....off hour but nerves beginning in earnest again Went from 10-12 to 6-8 this run. 0z will be huge and very telling for the fates of everyone north of 84.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Fascinating, lmao... This is where the 10 degree dewpoint line likely is. Per @NJwx85 on NYC forum. It's basically over our heads. If models account for this look out
  8. crossbowftw3
    30 miles north of 84, and under 10-15 miles from where that line is set up. I have to imagine further adjustments will be made. Still thinking failure mode will be 3-6 or maginal warning.
  9. crossbowftw3
    That cutoff is basically right over my head. Not great.
  10. crossbowftw3
    If another tick or two happens southeast we will likely end up out of warning amounts. Models finally picking up confluence...as I had always said this had a chance to evolve to a 95 crusher and it's already getting there: will us north of 84 slip out of warning level totals remains to be seen
  11. crossbowftw3
    That map was probably done with older data. Come later on it'll be different.
  12. crossbowftw3
    The confluence is strong with this one, we could still get smoked in the negative direction but this is still fine: county-wide 6-12 is still good enough for me. We must watch tonight's runs either way.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Fading away. Consensus growing and it's not working out for me nor anyone else here. Can't help but thinking one or two more ticks SE. The fringe, man.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Not a great sign. Sitting at the fringe in setups like these doesn't work out at least half of the time. Going to sweat this one out without a doubt over the next 48 hours.
  15. crossbowftw3
    The fringe has bitten us in the rear end before and might just do it again here. Thinking a failure mode is still 3-6 or marginal warning snows at this point.
  16. crossbowftw3
    To this end the next two euro runs will be highly telling. 84 south is all but good to go here. Those of us north will sweat this out.
  17. crossbowftw3
    We are definitely teetering here. Right now I'm still thinking around 8-12 but bust options very much still in play and potentially increasing. When this kind of confluence exists I start to feel nervous.
  18. crossbowftw3
    I'm 30 miles north of 84 in Sullivan. This will get precarious. BGM has watches up for Southern Wayne which is close to me for potential totals over 6". Interesting to see what today brings.
  19. crossbowftw3
    RGEM had a pretty good death band pivoting from SEPA onto LI--somewhere near there could be jackpot. Also kind of doubt 2'+ as I always have with this but can just as easily assume somewhere in there gets up to 18" max.
  20. crossbowftw3
    This euro run will be telling. The heaviest snow axis might be beginning to actually get nailed down. Somewhere between SEPA and NYC will get close to 2 feet I think. Question remains: where is the northern extent of snow? Riding very much on that at the moment. Most every run has taken me from over 1' to 6-10 this morning.
  21. crossbowftw3
    1.2 to 2.7 here. Trend still needs a bit more to go to be my friend.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Someone close to NYC will get the jack if a blend of RGEM and GFS plays out. That band on RGEM will crush whoever ends up under it.
  23. crossbowftw3
    Somewhere between Philly and NYC will get the jack if RGEM is closest to reality. That band will crush whoever ends up under it.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Easily a foot for them.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Still can't 100% count out GFS I think. Wouldn't be shocked if something like the GFS happened but brought north a tad more than it already is. Areas in and around NYC should still be very good for totals of at least 6-10".
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