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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Yeah I don’t expect much more than maybe 4-5” to be OTG by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night is the real show here. I’m planning to clear whatever is on the ground at or around noon tomorrow so the job on Tuesday morning can be at least somewhat easier.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Ratios should be more favorable here than closer to NYC/LI. All depends on if banding pokes in
  3. crossbowftw3
    NAM giving me 6-10 this run? And it still keeps NYC/LI in the Jack zone? I’ll gladly take it for myself and giving the snow-starved here something special
  4. crossbowftw3
    Walt, Any idea on ratios for inland folks? I'd think similar in stature to 12/17--guessing 10-13/14:1 again with temps not getting much above 27-29 during daytime Monday and falling back between 23-26
  5. crossbowftw3
    I would genuinely be annoyed if that happened.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Probably BGM's first guess of 6-12 makes sense, we can still cash in on this but probably not nearly as much as closer to NYC
  7. crossbowftw3
    BGM's WSW-acknowledges the longer duration to get to these totals+after this still going into how much uncertainty remains. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Chemung, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration event. A few to several inches of lighter snow are possible Sunday evening through Monday. Then for Monday night into Tuesday morning, additional snow is expected which may be heavy at times, along with areas of blowing snow.
  8. crossbowftw3
    They did but this situation feels so much more volatile for us North of 84. We were always guaranteed a good event then, but this time much less so. Effectively speaking the margin of error between 1" and over a foot is very thin. I've forgotten how it feels to be in this situation
  9. crossbowftw3
    Very unusual situation here. WSWatch hoisted but this isn’t guaranteed in the slightest. We have to keep watching this and won’t hone in on one common solution until tomorrow.
  10. crossbowftw3
    That’s a legit death band if I’ve ever seen one. Surely >3” an hour would be going on in that
  11. crossbowftw3
    How much closer do we see these goalposts narrow today do you think? I’m still discounting bigger totals this far north in Sullivan but as I’ve said all morning marginal warning level snows seems to be growing ever plausible here.
  12. crossbowftw3
    The end result. Would be a tease to go from 7-8” to over 20 in the span of a 30-45 minute drive
  13. crossbowftw3
    Highly favorable ratios as well....looks like over 12:1 edit: maybe even well over
  14. crossbowftw3
    F57 frame
  15. crossbowftw3
    Agreed, everyone north of 84’s prospects look a bit better today (I’d adjust my call to 5-8 if I had to) but the bullseye of the higher totals are still definitely where they have been for the last day or so
  16. crossbowftw3
    No reason to think it wouldn’t be adjusted. This is normal waffling and I would personally expect a shift back south enough to narrow the goalposts of the jackpot zone
  17. crossbowftw3
    BGM high end map looks oddly similar to the first map they posted for 12/16-17...versus the expected. Both still probably make equal amounts of sense as of this point.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Which is why I don’t intend to just jump on what happened overnight, I would still expect things to level off with today’s runs to end up with that 95-84 jackpot but I can now reasonably say low-end warning amounts at least to where I’m at now
  19. crossbowftw3
    Still need more than a few extra ticks to get much more than 3-6/4-8 north of 84, looking like somewhere between 84-95 and points SW of there should be the definites for 8+.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Can't have one to have the other but I'd gladly sit this one out to give LI an all snow event
  21. crossbowftw3
    Full map fwiw
  22. crossbowftw3
    Shades of January 2016 all over again
  23. crossbowftw3
    2016 all over again. My sister and her fiancé live in Peekskill and they’re going to be my personal measuring stick for how intense the gradient ends up being between their house and mine in Sullivan.
  24. crossbowftw3
    It can come back but it may not be enough to do much more than marginal warning. 6-8 is a probable upper bound
  25. crossbowftw3
    Definitely teetering and can go either way. I’ll go for a reasonable call and say enough ticks happen for some of BGM’s WFO to get 3-6
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