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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    any clue on how much icing might be possible in that window?
  2. crossbowftw3
    @wdrag I did get a chance to go down to take a look at the Delaware...did not get photos but it seemed normal. However, a family member (my mother, for what it’s worth) who had to go to work reported that the creek near where her work is was ready to spill into the road. Other than that things seem decently fine up here.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Winds have dropped rapidly since the front came through. Worst I figure is pretty much over here windwise. Rain is still falling, which only exacerbates that problem. Unfortunately it'll be hours before we all get the reprieve of the front
  4. crossbowftw3
    Matter of fact...copy/pasted from metro forum. KDOX issue: Dec 24 2020 22:42:02 Dover AFB Radar (KDOX) is currently experiencing some data quality errors due to an ongoing equipment issue. While velocity (V) data appears representative, reflectivity data (Z) is running high/"hot". Technicians have been notified and will continue to troubleshoot the radar over the coming days. Please use this data with caution for the time being. Thank you and we apologize for the inconvenience
  5. crossbowftw3
    Perhaps so....something with the algorithm? I have seen this happen before, here’s an example from May. The areas shown weren’t reporting any form of returns.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Yeah definitely no way we have 75 DBz+ echoes happening at the moment. That’d have to be indicative of some seriously incredible rain rates which again, don’t match ground truths. I have seen this occur before when looking over some radar imagery in the Desert Southwest—indicative of a bad radar algorithm. Here was an example from this past summer. At this point in time the areas shown here were high and dry without any precipitation occurring.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Per weatherwiz in NE forum it’s more likely something funky is happening with that radar. Observations/ground truths I’ve seen don’t match appearances
  8. crossbowftw3
    Wouldn’t that be a case of bright banding or no? I would think not, for what it’s worth, but who knows
  9. crossbowftw3
    The silver lining is that most of the next week after this looks generally quiet so most of the water (that doesn’t freeze anyway) would recede. Hoping they’ve got their preparations good to go.
  10. crossbowftw3
    I’ve got a pretty good feeling that tomorrow morning the Delaware will be raging pretty hard. Assuming many trees don’t fall I could find time between Christmas activities to take a look at what’s going on downtown where I am. Most of the town is elevated well above the level of the Delaware, thankfully
  11. crossbowftw3
    In my portion of Sullivan County the pack has whittled down enough to where flooding would be relatively limited at my house and generally around the area, but everywhere north is in a degree of trouble here. Isaias was the last flooding event here and it proved to be pretty bad. This one’s lasting about as long as that with the snow aiding the 1-3” of rain expected to fall (and already is beginning even.) the gusts, while again only at advisory level, will only serve to aid the rapid melt and flooding.
  12. crossbowftw3
    Infinitely more concerned about flooding here in the Catskills than the wind. Plenty of areas around here still got a deep snowpack. We probably only get advisory winds here but the flooding could prove highly problematic.
  13. crossbowftw3
    You could in theory still get good mixing at night especially in a situation like this with good WAA. That WAA can also create a stronger inversion.
  14. crossbowftw3
    I think this looks close to about what may unfold...is this accounting for convective elements? If there are to be 65+ gusts it’d be if the squall line rolled through.
  15. crossbowftw3
    I would tend to believe so.
  16. crossbowftw3
    I’d think even more concern lies where the 3 feet+ fell. Sure it was more powder there but it’s obviously compacted by now.
  17. crossbowftw3
    More concerned with flooding here than winds (for now)
  18. crossbowftw3
    Could be some. Drier air will rush in with the front, however, probably cutting things off too quickly for anything more than coatings.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Most of the folks in the NE thread are ignoring that and just wanting damage
  20. crossbowftw3
    I guess advisories for us N&W folk?
  21. crossbowftw3
    Ah, yeah. 8” an hour at the absolute max happened there I think? I still remember hearing about the 12” in 90 minutes
  22. crossbowftw3
    The observations I had read from up there definitely do back this up. Again, when do you ever see these almost illegal dynamics happen in a synoptic event?
  23. crossbowftw3
    And the flakes weren’t even flying there until about the same time flakes began closer to where we are. Absolutely nutty.
  24. crossbowftw3
    We got relatively screwed down here compared to our neighbors to the north then, ha Someone has got to do a study on that band. It’s not every day a band can thrive in perfect dynamics for 6+ hours in an event that wasn’t LES.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Finished with a very paltry (by comparison) 13-15” or so. Looks great but kinda sad the band didn’t park near me, ha. If someone does a study on just how good the dynamics in that band were I’d read it hundreds of times over.
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