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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Right in the middle of the action with that ICON run.
  2. crossbowftw3
    NSFW warnings should be applied to this
  3. crossbowftw3
    I'd think localized totals approaching 2 feet aren't out of the question...but they'd be exceptions, not the norm. Entirely plausible to get numerous/more widespread reports of one foot+ totals...or at least double digits
  4. crossbowftw3
    And to this extent my earliest best reasonable guess is a widespread 6-10+ storm...to a point. it'll be in Wednesday out Thursday. The 20"+ runs seem unlikely unless the storm sits and just parks for a time. It'll be cold too, ratios likely 15:1 or thereabout. No concern for mixing with temperatures likely hovering in the mid 20s by day, going to mid teens by night. Better picture of the situation will start happening by tomorrow.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Very good point. Like where I am right now but we are still a day away from having the wave that will become the catalyst for this storm able to be properly sampled
  6. crossbowftw3
    Even here in Sullivan I do get the sneaking feeling this could evolve to give NYC more snow than we will have here. We will have higher ratios here (I'm thinking 15:1 based on the words of Walt Drag), mind you
  7. crossbowftw3
    The NYC crowd aren't necessarily finding the negatives with this setup, but strangely enough there might be something here for them assuming mixing doesn't actually come into play. Nonetheless I like where a good deal of us here are sitting...ratios over 10:1 (perhaps approaching >15:1?) with every model spitting out >8" for most inland areas (save for GFS)....so basically very few negatives really at hand for us unless you're more west
  8. crossbowftw3
    Still looks good today. Don't think anyone would complain with a widespread 6-12 storm this early in the Winter. However I still raise the concern about south trends and this becoming a 95 special, if not a complete miss
  9. crossbowftw3
    I should also say I do feel a bit nervous of this evolving into a 95 special. Every time I see snowy on the EPS to the coast it always swings that way by 48 hours
  10. crossbowftw3
    Or 40 hours in the case of Thanksgiving weekend last year. Granted mixing issues meant it was never snow for more than maybe ~8 hours at a time
  11. crossbowftw3
    Liking what I see so far but still five days out so plenty of time for change. It'll be about damn time we get our first big boy snow of the year if things continue to trend in the correct direction.
  12. crossbowftw3
    It's definitely coming down in the Catskills. A dusting/coating on most everything, even the roads. Maybe I can sneak 1-2"? Would be surprised if more than 1" fell though.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Getting it pretty good in Sullivan now, only really seeing the grass getting coated as of the last 10 minutes. I'll be surprised if we can get more than an inch, but it's well appreciated regardless. Only about 3" of snow so far on the season which is kinda pitiful.
  14. crossbowftw3
    In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture
  15. crossbowftw3
    As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Seeing lots of changeovers happening for our New England friends....they'll be getting whalloped later on.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Never forget that one, but same will not happen here, sadly. The Pi Day storm was just perfect...what I would give to have another one of those right now, ha
  18. crossbowftw3
    The mention of Jonas in the coastal thread reminded me to pull this up. Probably the most pain I've ever felt from a snowstorm. You guys definitely reaped the benefits though. A gradient of 40 miles shut me out of over 8" and two hours shut me out from almost 30"
  19. crossbowftw3
    Probably just trying to join the fray seeing how 6z didn't seem to have anything
  20. crossbowftw3
    Running out of time for those. This model cycle, if not 18/0z, probably will converge on the common solution. New England going to certainly get whacked. Latest GFS. N CT and northeast will get slammed.
  21. crossbowftw3
    GFS ticked back slightly west but it does nobody here any good, not even us in BGM CWA. @sferic @Ericjcrash maybe some flakes for you two tomorrow.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Latest GFS. You could in theory drive from Chicago to Cleveland and go from nothing to well over a foot.
  23. crossbowftw3
    Gonna be interesting to watch what happens in Ohio/Indiana. Potential very sharp snow gradient might be in play....talking nothing to at least a foot within maybe 30 miles. If not less, that is.
  24. crossbowftw3
    Plausible knowing that every so often the southern states (mainly NC) get a snowstorm, with results never really pretty.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Wouldn't shock me knowing that every year or so the south always gets a storm or two in December-January. The results never tend to be pretty.
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