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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    The NYC crowd aren't necessarily finding the negatives with this setup, but strangely enough there might be something here for them assuming mixing doesn't actually come into play. Nonetheless I like where a good deal of us here are sitting...ratios over 10:1 (perhaps approaching >15:1?) with every model spitting out >8" for most inland areas (save for GFS)....so basically very few negatives really at hand for us unless you're more west
  2. crossbowftw3
    Liking where I'm sitting more and more here. Aside from the GFS almost every single one likes the Catskills for 8"+ on this one. Today's going to be critical to watch the models, especially GFS. @wdrag how high do you think ratios get inland? I was thinking up to around 15:1 but with P&C forecast giving me a high of 27 and a low of 15 Wednesday I'd think maybe a bit higher?
  3. crossbowftw3
    Still looks good today. Don't think anyone would complain with a widespread 6-12 storm this early in the Winter. However I still raise the concern about south trends and this becoming a 95 special, if not a complete miss
  4. crossbowftw3
    I should also say I do feel a bit nervous of this evolving into a 95 special. Every time I see snowy on the EPS to the coast it always swings that way by 48 hours
  5. crossbowftw3
    Or 40 hours in the case of Thanksgiving weekend last year. Granted mixing issues meant it was never snow for more than maybe ~8 hours at a time
  6. crossbowftw3
    Liking what I am seeing so far for my odds here in the Catskills. Kinda nervous though that this could evolve into a 95 special but that may not be overly likely for now
  7. crossbowftw3
    Liking what I see so far but still five days out so plenty of time for change. It'll be about damn time we get our first big boy snow of the year if things continue to trend in the correct direction.
  8. crossbowftw3
    It's definitely coming down in the Catskills. A dusting/coating on most everything, even the roads. Maybe I can sneak 1-2"? Would be surprised if more than 1" fell though.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Getting it pretty good in Sullivan now, only really seeing the grass getting coated as of the last 10 minutes. I'll be surprised if we can get more than an inch, but it's well appreciated regardless. Only about 3" of snow so far on the season which is kinda pitiful.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Clouds moved back over, sustained wind of 16 gusts to around 30 or so. Got the feel of a big storm without anything actually happening
  11. crossbowftw3
    In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture
  12. crossbowftw3
    As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Seeing lots of changeovers happening for our New England friends....they'll be getting whalloped later on.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Widespread outage event for New England while most of us here will probably see more isolated-scattered with our big issue for the rest of the day being wind. It should be said most in the New England forum are already changing over...hours ahead of schedule
  15. crossbowftw3
    Hearing snow in the air east of of me across Orange/Putnam/Dutchess....it's coming, most of you should gradually change over before the big boy band begins
  16. crossbowftw3
    The ratios will be so low though that the threat for rather widespread outages will only go up through the day...still guessing 7-8:1 for a large amount of the time. If only Cantore was able to station himself in Worcester. That's a sure recipe for some thundersnow to happen
  17. crossbowftw3
    Gotta wonder if that's the beginning of the band that's going to produce the 2-3" hourly rates once it arrives into CT/MA
  18. crossbowftw3
    Some eminent signs of the change beginning in W MA/CT as well
  19. crossbowftw3
    It's dry up here but feels rather moist. New England is going to get absolutely whacked once they change over.
  20. crossbowftw3
    High and dry in the Catskills (as I suspected) but the atmosphere feels like it's got a lot of moisture to it. Once this winds up its going to absolutely pound in New England.
  21. crossbowftw3
    WPC blends every model but mostly takes from NBM if I'm not mistaken
  22. crossbowftw3
    That's legit nutty. While I'm sucking cirrus on a 15 MPH wind I'm gonna be in my house looking at nearly every cam possible
  23. crossbowftw3
    snow map? For my curiosity's sake
  24. crossbowftw3
    Never forget that one, but same will not happen here, sadly. The Pi Day storm was just perfect...what I would give to have another one of those right now, ha
  25. crossbowftw3
    Good catch. I expect BOX and GYX will have to issue out Warnings within the next several hours. People might find themselves a little caught out knowing that today isn't exactly cold and that the precipitation is beginning as rain.
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