crossbowftw3

One thing is abundantly clear and that this drought has officially been busted in a big way.

November 2018 redux at this point. Eye testing definitely right around 5-6” when I wasn’t exactly anticipating more than 2-4”. power problems soon to unfold especially up near cooperstown, where they’re easily closing on 18”. edit: 9” and counting.

This got even more interesting. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1204 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 NYZ057-062-210115- /O.CAN.KBGM.WW.Y.0021.241121T2100Z-241123T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WS.A.0007.241121T2100Z-241122T2100Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 1204 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations up to 8 inches possible in the higher elevations and up to 4 inches in lower elevations. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

today's model runs might make things interesting even at my elevation, still can't yet count on it though but it would not be shocking to see MSV elevation and up pull a nice event from this. Far northern Sullivan will be in line for a good shot of snow from this for sure

Singing back in to start another round of winter--and what a good time to do so. Thursday-Friday is one of those razor's edge setups that, at least right now, I wouldn't anticipate seeing much outside of white grass at my elevation. The rain takes bigger precedent, for now.

And when was the last 15 hatch across Ohio again?

Maybe a surprise or two this week as a last hurrah snow but I wouldn’t count on it. Pretty much already set to be a complete wash

Meanwhile… some areas jumped from 0/2% to 15% hatched in the span of one update.

Some heathy gusts this morning. Hopefully, this will be the last big wind event until next fall—barring any tropical systems that come our way. And with the exceptionally active season predicted there will be at least one bound to head our way

Right around 3-4” from an initial forecast of c-1” A reverse bust from Tuesday, snow for the season now right around 25”

Winds were going something legitimately fierce last night, got another inch of snow out of it

Final total did indeed appear to be around 3” difference between 3” and a foot ended up at about 45 miles

May have stopped at this point with probably around 3” eyeballing, will check once I have to clear this out what a bizarre 24 hours this has been

2.5” 30-40 miles northwest of Middletown, this gradient should be interesting to see

2.5”, snowing moderately the gradient will be insane as I’m seeing Port Jervis come in with 8.5”

I’m maybe 35 miles from Port Jervis to the NW and eyeballing MAYBE 2”

SN, 31/28

For comparison I have maybe 1-2” 40ish miles north

This is now 4-8 warning with no more advisories to my north now

BGM’s 6-12 warning held for me. That no longer makes sense if this is how it will end up. An advisory no longer makes sense either, but I would have switched to one. P&C still suggests around 8”.

EC somehow trended south again at 12 NWS offices going crazy right now, surely

These gradient storms are always a bane for me being in the Catskills/just north of 84 where they always lie As always I’ll accept losing one storm or having relatively lesser accumulations just so closer to NYC can cash in once for this winter

Living right on the other side of the PA border in Sullivan County and these cutoff situations are never great because I’m either seeing 6-12 here or much less with maybe no in between

12z NAM might make it easier to discount euro could create a situation where I see 6-8, 30-60 miles north gets much less, 30-60 miles southeast gets a widespread 10-12” snow

Definitely one of the more shocking last second reversals I’ve seen, but I’m fine giving one up if the NYC crowd finally cashes in