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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    The relative hole in ZR accumulations represents my relatively lower elevation in Sullivan so well on the 12z NAM. Not like I’m complaining
  2. crossbowftw3
    12z HRRR printing out 1.3” of liquid in ZR for elevations of Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which would work to being dangerously close to the .5” marker for an ISW.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Watch swapped to an advisory for up to .25” but I doubt areas around here get away with only seeing that. Similar gradient to 12/29/19 showing up on meso models as well where I saw almost no ice, while 30-40 minutes and elevation saw up to .4”.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Winter storm watch for .25-.5” of ice. Excellent….not
  5. crossbowftw3
    Instead of the good stuff I’m at risk of .25”-.5” of ice accretions have fun with the good stuff
  6. crossbowftw3
    Winter storm watch now for .25-.5” and 1-3 of snow. At my lower elevation it’s likely closer to the .25” than the .5” but… Good thing is that there should be almost no wind factoring in so any outages probably wouldn’t last longer than 2-3 days at most
  7. crossbowftw3
    They typically never do. Common rule is to cut QPF maps by 35-40% to get totals and that’ll get a wide enough area to .25” or more which still will prove to be a gigantic problem.
  8. crossbowftw3
    That’s what I’m feeling right now too, if I had to guess a forecast for our areas it would probably also be 1-3 with up to .1.-.2 of ZR, and definitely more sleet. Good to make a bulletproof pack, hellish to try and clear after the fact especially with the temps crashing right back down Friday afternoon + evening.
  9. crossbowftw3
    That’s 12z…..18 came in way warmer which probably doesn’t make much sense.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Would work out to a potential widespread .25”-.5” and pockets to .75”…..when was the last time (if ever) NYC saw a legit ice storm warning?
  11. crossbowftw3
    For as much as I’d use the “typical paring down” metric for determining ice accretions I also am reminded that temperatures will be tumbling down as this happens. Not a very pretty look regardless.
  12. crossbowftw3
    And then snow on top of that is a recipe for disaster.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Application of typical paring down where necessary will still create a tremendous stretch of areas that are risking up to .5-.75 of ice accretions
  14. crossbowftw3
    A nice 4.5” per hour if it stays at that 1.5 per 20 minute rate
  15. crossbowftw3
    Dry air is definitely eating into the returns here now as the bands begin to line up to smack Boston with subsequent (slow) de-escalation of the snow intensity here
  16. crossbowftw3
    Is that the Himalayas I see from my house in Sullivan? Lol
  17. crossbowftw3
    Light-moderate snow has been occurring for most of the morning here which is quite a surprise. A new coating has been laid down in the last hour and we probably snow for another 3-4 hours to probably pull 3-4" for this one.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Yes Still coming down light-moderate with a new coating since I first went outside to clear an hour ago. Assuming another 3 hours of this 3” isn’t out of the question
  19. crossbowftw3
    Still snowing at a somewhat appreciable clip, but there’s no way this keeps up for too much longer
  20. crossbowftw3
    Need more light but I look to be in the 2-3” range as of now. Not terrible, could get close to 4” before drier air starts winning out. Sounds like it’s absolutely ripping on the coastlines though
  21. crossbowftw3
    An incredibly rogue snow shower is re-applying the coating that was laid down earlier that subsequently melted. Watch me over-perform from just this single snow shower and nothing else for the rest of the night and tomorrow
  22. crossbowftw3
    A VERY rogue snow shower is re-applying the coating that melted earlier in Sullivan
  23. crossbowftw3
    And clown maps?
  24. crossbowftw3
    These gradient storms always suck for us far north and west. What does a guy have to do to order up a 1-2’ storm all up and down? I’ll gladly take this one off, though, considering our snow removal situation IMBY at the moment isn’t exactly the best.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Snow showers finally did commence here an hour ago. Dusting everywhere.
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