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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Snakey outflow boundary heading north
  2. Kmlwx
    That Anne Arundel cell has a wind signature on the TBWI radar.
  3. Kmlwx
    The cell near Berryville/Rippon looks nice - lots of lightning being detected as well.
  4. Kmlwx
    Remember that those are the grids. Often the language is better in the zone forecast product.
  5. Kmlwx
    There's an MCD now. I'm at work and can't post.
  6. Kmlwx
    You know I'm jaded when I'm a Deb lol
  7. Kmlwx
    There still seems to be a south-favored nature of today's threat on the models. Not to say stuff isn't north of the Potomac, but I'd say best shots at something above the severe criteria is south of DC. We'll see!
  8. Kmlwx
    12z NAM nest focuses the activity south of DC
  9. Kmlwx
    Earlier 12z CIPS run has 5/2/2016 and 5/13/2002 in the analogs. The 2002 date was a MDT risk day.
  10. Kmlwx
    Mid-level lapse rates suck on the NAM. Timing could also adjust since we are several days out. NAM does give us sunshine that morning (for now)
  11. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a few heavy hitter events sprinkled in the next 48 hours.
  12. Kmlwx
    Yep. I saw two maybe. Not a storm though!
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm really, really, really hoping this is something special. I remember seeing the 1997 Leonids with my dad.
  14. Kmlwx
    Could have been a sporadic (not attached with any distinct shower) but apparently there was a bona fide Tau Herculid seen on a meteor camera a day or two ago. Fingers crossed this turns out to be something! Odds aren't high, though!
  15. Kmlwx
    Mesoanalysis does have some instability available in our area still. Not expecting anything widespread - but yeah a last hurrah SVR is not out of the question. I'm hearing some thunder here now.
  16. Kmlwx
    ENTLN is showing a few strikes near Sugarland Run now.
  17. Kmlwx
    Line is doing a last hurrah effort between Walkersville and down to Manassas. It'll likely be sub-severe but guessing there might be a last minute uptick in storminess.
  18. Kmlwx
    Isolated flooding threat may evolve in MoCo - some heavy showers popping up.
  19. Kmlwx
    Looks like that is the dominant cell. Looks like this round will be a snoozer into DC proper for now at least. Just heavy rain in pockets unless a new cell gets going.
  20. Kmlwx
    TVS on GR2AE near Charlotte Hall.
  21. Kmlwx
    Something is trying just west of Charlotte Hall perhaps.
  22. Kmlwx
    Impressive storms down there in VA (and crossing into Charles Co, MD soon! Looks like the part of the line heading for me is pretty weak - still time, but I bet the more intense activity may rob the northern parts of some of the juice.
  23. Kmlwx
    I am watching (for MBY purely) the activity between around Staunton up to like Broadway, VA. That seems like the part of the line that may come through my area...if that stays anemic I think I'm done for the day with severe. I do think DC proper has a shot. I'd be watching closely if I lived in Spotsylvania/Stafford or lower southern Maryland.
  24. Kmlwx
    In all seriousness, I think the watch is well drawn. Will be curious to see how the storms behave as they come more north into the more stable airmass (though there is SOME CAPE). Charles County, MD and areas like Culpeper could be rocking!
  25. Kmlwx
    It's 0.4 miles from me. I'm contacting SPC to have them revise the outline to be a half mile north.
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