Kmlwx

My call for the new D1 outlook will be (for DC proper) 5% TOR with the 10% very nearby. 30% wind and 15% hail.

Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up.

This always happens as we close - things slow down but ultimately the storms race out faster.

Also a linear system back in western MS producing winds of up to 70mph according to the warning.

A lot of the CAMs (like the ARW, ARW2, NMM) want to throw all the eggs into the morning stuff and don't really have all that much for the 2nd round. I honestly would not be surprised if only one round really comes to fruition. Which one that is will probably determine our threat. It looks like a corridor to watch is going to be a slightly steeper angle than I-95 and running from like DC southward to the RIC area.

The 21z RAP is coming in with upwards of 2300 (corrected) 180mb MLCAPE Pockets of 2600 SBCAPE...

You rock. No rush. It's ultimately not that urgent. I see all kinds of pretty ones on Twitter during events and I've never gotten around to loading something other than the default.

Biggest issue I have with the velocity color tables I'm using now is they aren't bright enough. I think they are actually the defaults. If they work with level 2 data would you mind sharing? DM me? Thanks!

Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst?

I mean - if we can get 20 hours of tornado watches from 2011 - maybe we can get something like this

SIm reflectivity probably won't be 100% useful until the models get a good lock on the evolution of convection overnight.

NAM parameters are much less impressive in Central Maryland this go around. The best stuff stays just south of DC. This is on the 12km The 3km looks better

High winds seem like they will be with the activity and in the morning.

You would track that line by the centimeter if you could

The 15z RAP has over 2000J/kg of SBCAPE through a good chunk of the area around surrounding the 17z timeframe. 1km EHI approaching 4.5 in a pocket...SigTor 8-10 in a chunk of the area. Dang...

Always glad to have your insight in our region. I would tend to think any hatching remains south of our area...at least with regards to TORs. I could see a hatched wind area come up to our area - especially if LWX is leaning more on the SVR TOR products to emphasize the wind threat rather than the wind advisory products.

Updated LWX disco snippet is dead on what I thought earlier .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Really not much to add to the previous discussion. High impact storm to affect the region Mon with significant risk of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes. Planning to issue a Wind Advisory for everywhere not included in a High Wind Watch. While widespread damaging winds are certainly possible in a lot of areas, these should be brief in nature and mainly convectively driven. Believe those will be handled better with SVRs or TORs as needed. Flooding rain threat seems to be diminishing and not planning issuing any Flood Watches at this time.

12z NAM (12km) has less CAPE into Southern PA. But still looks excellent for the DC area.

Going to be interesting to see what the 3km NAM spits out. GFS will bring us back to reality as usual. But interesting to see the models maxing out with time...

Long range 12z HRRR also going kinda bonkers...

If you took that RAP run at face value - it would seem to indicate we have just as much potential as some places in the Carolinas. I don't buy it. But the models continue to spit out some very healthy solutions for our area.

LOL at the RAP on the 09z run

Not sure how useful the RAP is anymore - but at range it has 80-90kts at the 850mb level at 15z tomorrow.

Have to say - the big gap in the high wind watch products from WFOs to the west of LWX and WFOs east of LWX doesn't look great. Don't see a ton of harm going with a WATCH and ultimately going with an advisory if the higher wind progs don't end up verifying. But the whole purpose of a watch is for this reason. Could easily see gusts to the 58mph criteria. I wonder if their plan is to go with an advisory and then cover any HWW criteria winds with SVRs