tiger_deF

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

The HAFS and even JMA have picked up on a turn west. Still into NS and Northern Maine, but this absolutely bears watching for us folks down south

Eye see you Teddy

0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro

Just looking at the temperature rise in the past 200 years compared to changes in climate we've observed over thousands of years, the warming now is faster by orders of magnitude. I've suspected our climate might be somewhat more moderating than we expect, but I see no other reason besides human emissions of some kind that the temperature has risen so suddenly and consistently, despite a few "dips"

Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs.

West =

All worth it for the rare coastal Noreaster

I get that this is an incredibly precise setup that will most likely not happen, but how is a single shift in the GFS more accurate than days of EPS runs?

Been there since that ICON run yesterday my friend

Again as with the EPS, like 10-20% of those runs would be absolutely disastrous assuming Teddy becomes as strong as forecasted, along with the baroclinic forcing as it starts to transition

This is setting up to be either a huge disappointment (or relief depending on the poster) or potentially a high impact event

Big weenie setup on the ICON, let's see if it holds the next few days

Another day, another SW shift on the GFS

Yeah, the pattern that would produce a serious storm up here is like a meteorological needle in a haystack. That being said, there is definitely potential for conditions that would be conducive to a pull west provided everything comes together, and I think that we should be tracking this until the models (especially the EPS) move back east. In addition, Teddy is forecasted to be an enormous and powerful storm, especially once it interacts with the trough, so if for some ungodly reason a NE situation did verify, it would likely be serious.

This season feels similar to 2004 in terms of impacts, however instead of tracking powerful, longtracking canes that usually made landfall past their peak, we've been tracking areas of vorticity and elongated waves that suddenly decide to get their act together within days of landfall

Euro with the left hook, where have we seen that before Still looking to be OTS but I would say chances of some kind of impact have risen somewhat

Major shift west for the GFS

They'd be right unfortunately Unrelated, I think totally writing off any threat is just as irresponsible as doomcasting, we are 172 hours out and things can easily change.

Decent shift west on the GFS, sets up a similar high/trof system to the ICON, but the angle of the trough is significantly steeper and fails to capture the system. Still barely scrapes over Nova Scotia.

Just remember, all these threats never materialize or verify... until they do. All it takes is one

More important is the trend that models are no longer ratcheting this to the right, but are keeping it's north heading, or even turning slightly west

Of course I don't expect this to happen, but I do feel like some sort of impact from Teddy is definitely not entirely out of the cards. Just hypothetically, this situation would easily push 15-20 feet of surge right into the bay. Can't even imagine the level of devastation

Oh my

Y'all are spoiled