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tiger_deF

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Everything posted by tiger_deF

  1. tiger_deF
    She's doing her best to hang on
  2. tiger_deF
    Dollt}"" Despite the hostile conditions, and the fact that there's likely not a coherent LLC, post-Dolly sure is trying her best
  3. tiger_deF
    Rooting for this little guy (girl?) in the near future for sure. It’s almost certainly headed the way of the dodo but every now and then a storm is able to persist against a hostile environment. Currently she’s producing just barely enough convection to survive
  4. tiger_deF
    After a parade of struggling invests which have failed to materialize, it looks like the Atlantic, in this anemic season, may actually be capable of producing a potentially long-tracking hurricane! 96L is not currently a threat to land, and the vast majority of models show this system recurving out to well east of the CONUS
  5. tiger_deF
    If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish
  6. tiger_deF
    The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well
  7. tiger_deF
    This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?
  8. tiger_deF
    Come to papa
  9. tiger_deF
    I’m over it. It feels like there was a better chance of getting lightning from one of the blizzards last winter out east than this pithy severe season. Bring on the Fall!
  10. tiger_deF
    Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season.
  11. tiger_deF
    Let’s get a Pineapple Express of cutters dropping 2-5” (Wes Fri Sat) then a bigger coastal or two in the next few weeks. Pattern is ripe and we don’t have many weeks of winter left
  12. tiger_deF
    Some of the best rates yet in Arlington. Half an inch on the ground after just 20 minutes of shoveling. Praying that the newly formed band over BOS stays put for a few hours.
  13. tiger_deF
    Thinking of taking a strategic map, for BOS what’s an estimate for timing the peak of the storm? HRRR seems to think maybe in the ballpark of 8 AM?
  14. tiger_deF
    A few miles west of the city, we barely cracked an inch an hour ago. But the pace has picked up markedly the past half hour and the wind is howling
  15. tiger_deF
    I wasn't planning on pulling an all nighter but at this point I might as well
  16. tiger_deF
    I'm committed to staying up until the snow gets heavy because otherwise I'll be in a bad mood. Nowcast central
  17. tiger_deF
    Road still doesn't have any accumulation. Maybe 0.25" 3 miles NW of Boston
  18. tiger_deF
    Hasn’t even started snowing here yet
  19. tiger_deF
    Night ruined
  20. tiger_deF
    Pressure dropping at a steady 2mb/hr rate for the past 3 hours, went from 1000 to 996 according to SPC analysis. Around ~2mb deeper than the predicted timepoint
  21. tiger_deF
    Just a few last minute ticks North would make a world of difference in northern Greater Boston, holding out hope for some last minute ticks NAM and HRRR are showing a notable northern component later in the storms evolution that wasn't present earlier, this could be a good sign
  22. tiger_deF
    This is going to be a huge nowcast situation both for where the banding sets up and rots, but also the low pressure dynamics. All the higher end mesos and model runs yesterday show a stronger capture and slowdown, while the weaker ones shunt it east.
  23. tiger_deF
    That or they prepared the advisory maybe an hour ago. I can see it now.. in the studio high-fiving, when in comes Larry the intern. He’s running the distance, running for speed, busting his butt across campus with news of the rug of the century. One look at the koochie and papers are flying and people are yelling.
  24. tiger_deF
    I’m melting over anything less than 18”
  25. tiger_deF
    Way ahead of you. Vodka cran or a classic G&T?
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