tiger_deF

It's hard to take these bullish forecasts seriously when the Eastern Atlantic (which has been discussed as being a more favorable hotspot this season) is so, so dry.

Several low pressure systems are moving/are forecasted to move across Africa in the next week. They are already advecting a massive plume of SAL into the Atlantic.

18z GFS has more tropical activity over Sub-Saharan Africa than it has in the entire basin by August 21st

Models: The Eastern Atlantic:

If limited model support continues, I imagine this disturbance may become a lemon in the near future.

18z GFS develops the pictured wave into a tropical storm, which crosses the Atlantic and degenerates into an open wave in 3-4 days after formation. Shear values are quite low in the area, and vorticity has been increasing on all levels over the past several hours.

The TW that just exited Africa is looking interesting.

While these waves aren't forecasted to develop until potentially much later, they sure look impressive.

I still have hope for the southern and western trail of storms, but the current line in central mass looks like crumbling garbage.

Bret is looking pretty good right now. Outflow is limited, but it this convective burst is the coldest and longest-lasting for the past few days. A broad feeder band has been developing as well.

We're on the cusp

In addition GEFS ensembles are increasingly showing potential early-season activity. The MDR feature is also seeing support from the Euro.

Speaks for itself.

Our first phantom hit of the year!

Already looking meaty and the event is only just beginning. Discrete signatures up and down the breadth of the system.

From someone relatively new to tracking severe weather, would an extremely severe event/positive bust in the midwest/TV increase the chances for strong thunderstorms or potential tornadic activity here?

Unfortunately (or fortunately) daylight savings time is done. We're not getting back the early European again.

Here in Boston I'd be thrilled if we get over two inches of accumulation. This entire winter has had snow gone in a couple days thanks to back-end rain or sleet. I'm already onto the next system. If the EPS is any indication, this could be the strongest system since Jan 2022 of last year (with a 1993 or 1978 ceiling).

GFS has a system, just at a slightly later time frame and offshore. Regardless, there's huge potential with this pattern, and the models are clearly reflecting that

Long range GFS is showing a classic setup.

In the past day this wave has blossomed into one of the better looking ones this season, with lots of convection, a relatively moist environment, and growing vorticity. Early October can often signal an end to threats from the deep tropical Atlantic, but the delayed nature of this season could mean a later end to CV season as well. The UL to the left will provide some short-term barriers to intensification, but I would not be surprised to see a tropical system developing before it reaches the Caribbean.

Really serious situation with my extended family... last I heard from them 20 minutes ago the water was up to their necks in their house in the Royal Woods neighborhood of Ft. Myers, and they are too old and weak to swim for a higher building. How much more is the water expected to rise? The eye should be over them now based on radar, how long before Ft. Meyers gets the backside of the storm? If they have some time maybe they could float to somewhere more elevated... Any information would be really appreciated, I am extremely worried and my stepfather is in hysterics.

I have elderly family living in Fort Meyers near Estero that refused to evacuate... their house is only 1 story, and they've already lost power. Really hoping they come through ok...