tiger_deF

18z GFS is all over the place, but one thing it does have is signal. This may be the largest percentage of developing members we’ve seen for the AOI yet. We might not get much from this system but it sure isn’t being dropped

Ironic that right as everyone is becoming bearish there’s finally something to actually look at. This seems a step beyond what many models had in terms of convective activity for today

Benchmark for serious interest on my end is any sort of impact within 168 hours (7 days) on the models. We’ve had ~3 semi persistent modelcanes this season, and the signal vanished at that time or before for each one. If NE is getting even getting scattered hits after that then we could be on to something.

While no model shows any development and there isn’t much vorticity, I’m a little suspicious of this feature crossing the Lesser Antilles. Will likely die in the Caribbean graveyard, but the convection is robust and increasing, and shear does not appear to be destroying the cloud tops at this time. I think this bears watching.

Our AOI 5 hours ago vs our AOI now Convection is still popcorning and somewhat sparse, but the convective pattern is much more consolidated. Remains to see if that will improve short-term development.

The SAL profile looks pretty dry for this time of year, but important to remember that SAL tends to hurt larger, sprawling waves more drastically than smaller waves, stringing them out and delaying or preventing discrete consolidation. While our current batch of AOIs are certainly not consolidated systems, the convective patterns are more promising for development than a week ago, where diffuse, persistent convection filled the eastern Atlantic.

The shameless of youth… almost enviable, on most places but a forum for weather discussion To make sure this post isn’t deleted I’ll throw in something relevant. Worth watching the current central Atlantic wave, the one behind it will almost certainly recurve. Hopefully we get a big beautiful storm out of that one

It’s hard to believe that during peak season, with a look like this in the Eastern Atlantic, that nothing will form from these two areas… Interesting that the monsoonal look has been lessening a little, looks like two discrete disturbance areas rather than the mess of convection we’ve had recently.

Frankly I’m more concerned with making it to 15 NS if that, GFS shows nothing right through the peak of the season September 10th… Effectively the first entire half of the true peak (Mid August-Sept 10) will be 1/1/0. Something out there is deeply unfavorable, maybe the combination of SAL and the ICTZ being North has been the culprit. Either way the climo model runs have been busting hilariously over the past few weeks.

Interesting recon profile here. I wouldn’t go so far as to say there are two separate low level centers, but there is definitely a broad area of low pressure and low wind to the SW of the smaller northern low, with the typical increase in winds happening farther from the center than the northern portion of the storm. Will be a fascinating evolution to watch over the next 24 hours.

Huge West shifts for the GFS and ICON 00z operational. Wow thought we had completely lost this one…

I still think there’s less than a 5% chance of this getting up here. Time and time again, every season we see waves like this slip right through our fingers (or completely disappoint, looking at you Henri…), even when modeling shows something substantial. That being said I’m embracing the delusion. Subtropical waters are warm enough that a hurricane moving at a decent clip could actually maintain major intensity at this latitude for a short time. Plus, gambler’s fallacy- we are so overdue, we have to hit soon, right?

Now that Debby is approaching her stall era, even 10 miles of difference east could change her eventual fate. If the center can fully park itself offshore than I think it can regain hurricane strength, maybe become even stronger than before FL landfall. Otherwise, I expect we will continue to see Debby spin down.

Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention.

This wave is over 10 degrees of latitude high. Given the more potent northern and southern lobes in comparison to the weakening circulation, this is really a grab bag of scenarios. We could get formation North of the GA, south of the GA, complete disorganization until the Gulf, or absolutely nothing. Given how broad it is this reminds me of an Isias scenario of taking a while to tighten up.

As long as some models show a decently strong hurricane off the coast (even if steering isn’t cooperating) we watch

This thing is an ACE monster. Will be up to around 20 ACE after the next advisory, making up over 95% of the season’s total so far (and up to August 20th in terms of climatology)

I have a more theory based question I’d love to hear some expert opinions on. So we know that the positioning of upper level features can help or hinder a hurricane. These effects are based on the movement of upper level air masses on their periphery, which can induce mid-level shear which either ventilates the storm or tears it apart. My question is, beyond core disruption, does the kinetic energy of these masses of air and their circulations interacting with one another provide any energy to the system, or is that not meaningful given the scale of force present in the core?

Beryl seems to be going a structural transition. The banding has dried out and been reduced across the entire system, yet the convection it is producing in the eyewall is some of the deepest yet

So right now, Beryl has been on the southerly side of the forecasted track, so I would say the risk to the Barbados of a direct impact has dropped. That being said, strong hurricanes tend to wobble, so there is a chance Beryl could take a more Northern path in the short term, increasing the risk. Storm surge will be an issue but likely not a major one, as Beryl’s small core is not going to generate as large of a fetch of water, especially given that it has done most of its strengthening recently. Impacts will probably peak 24 hours from now, give or take

Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south

I’m still skeptical that Beryl will achieve cat 5 intensity, certainly possible but one EWRC would torpedo those chances. Frankly I think that could actually be worse, since the storm would expand appreciably.

Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow.