tiger_deF

Hard to believe this disturbance is still chugging along as it’s been raked over the entire greater Antilles. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if nothing developed at all. That being said, conditions are good enough that one has to pay attention.

This wave is over 10 degrees of latitude high. Given the more potent northern and southern lobes in comparison to the weakening circulation, this is really a grab bag of scenarios. We could get formation North of the GA, south of the GA, complete disorganization until the Gulf, or absolutely nothing. Given how broad it is this reminds me of an Isias scenario of taking a while to tighten up.

As long as some models show a decently strong hurricane off the coast (even if steering isn’t cooperating) we watch

This thing is an ACE monster. Will be up to around 20 ACE after the next advisory, making up over 95% of the season’s total so far (and up to August 20th in terms of climatology)

I have a more theory based question I’d love to hear some expert opinions on. So we know that the positioning of upper level features can help or hinder a hurricane. These effects are based on the movement of upper level air masses on their periphery, which can induce mid-level shear which either ventilates the storm or tears it apart. My question is, beyond core disruption, does the kinetic energy of these masses of air and their circulations interacting with one another provide any energy to the system, or is that not meaningful given the scale of force present in the core?

Beryl seems to be going a structural transition. The banding has dried out and been reduced across the entire system, yet the convection it is producing in the eyewall is some of the deepest yet

So right now, Beryl has been on the southerly side of the forecasted track, so I would say the risk to the Barbados of a direct impact has dropped. That being said, strong hurricanes tend to wobble, so there is a chance Beryl could take a more Northern path in the short term, increasing the risk. Storm surge will be an issue but likely not a major one, as Beryl’s small core is not going to generate as large of a fetch of water, especially given that it has done most of its strengthening recently. Impacts will probably peak 24 hours from now, give or take

Interesting cloud formation, resembles a wall of clouds separating the SAL to the North and the vorticity to the south

I’m still skeptical that Beryl will achieve cat 5 intensity, certainly possible but one EWRC would torpedo those chances. Frankly I think that could actually be worse, since the storm would expand appreciably.

Beryl is looking fierce right now. I’d say a 45-50 mph tropical storm still intensifying at a fast clip. What’s most intimidating is the total lack of other clouds around the system. Once the system fully stacks we are going to see some beautiful outflow.

Incredible how much better the TD 2 looks now than 16 hours ago

Looking better by the hour

Still a little displaced, but it’s go time

95L is well on its way to becoming a TC, intense burst over its true center and a potent feeder band is establishing itself to the SW.

Looks like the season is picking up - 95L may become the strongest MDR/Ecarib hurricane since 2005. Keeping a wary eye on it, ridging will likely push it due west but it it strengthens earlier than forecast it might find a weakness.

The board would go nuts if this happened, two hurricanes in the Caribbean in early July

I’m still waiting until we can get a storm to Gaston-maxx. It’s been 8 years and I still haven’t let him go…

That’s tough. I personally think this year might have quality over quantity (unlike say 2020). I wouldn’t be surprised if we busted under in terms of ACE, but I think it’s likely we will be tracking some formidable systems. For being so concise your slang list is no cap, fr man

Sorry, one of two Gen Z Anyway it’s looking more and more likely that we will get some June/July MDR action. Major SAL outbreak is going to dampen activity some, but conditions will be quite favorable otherwise.

Absolutely soupy in Middlesex county, feels like a swamp. Sun broke out an hour ago. If anything makes it down this far South it will have some serious fuel

Would certainly be a harbinger of a hyperactive season if we beat the EPAC to the first storm of the NW hemisphere… Model signals are going to back on and off development over the next few days but in the long run we are entering a more favorable period for disturbances.

The wave in question has vigorous convection which has been sporadic but persistent. Upper level environment is quite hostile to the Northwest (where it will be moving eventually), but it’s immediate environment seems favorable, though a little far to the South. ASCAT pass 3 hours ago shows a defined wave axis and a broad swath of winds, but not much in the way of a closed circulation yet. Best chance for development IMO is the next couple of days or later when it exits into the SW Atlantic.

GFS has been hinting at potential development in the SW Caribbean for a little while. Might just be another phantom but interesting to watch over the next few days.