tiger_deF

The wave moving off of Africa right now is quite impressive. How it develops (or fails to) and how it interacts with the wave in the Central Atlantic to the left will be interesting to watch over the next few days.

If the CFS is correct verbatim the season outlook is pretty grim. Two total storms from now to mid-September, right past the peak of the season. EDIT: SAL forecasts show the entire basin completely smothered in dry air a couple of days before the bell ring

I think the chances of an August shutout are looking more and more likely. The Euro is forecasting a large area of shear that will smother a substantial portion of the basin, the 384 hour GFS has been effectively dead for weeks and has shown nothing but hostile conditions, and extremely dry air pervades the eastern and central Atlantic. Just a few weeks ago, 95L and 96L had decent model support yet completely failed to develop. All models are intent on developing multiple hurricanes in the EPAC over the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile we are grasping at straws looking at patchy areas of vorticity and and ensemble members over 7 days out for even the faintest signs of life. I'm still expecting a "switch flip" at some point so to speak, and I'm fully prepared to eat crow, but I'm astonished agencies have actually been raising their forecasts. Nothing in the past month has been indicative of an active season, and El Nino seasons are not known for being backloaded.

It's hard to take these bullish forecasts seriously when the Eastern Atlantic (which has been discussed as being a more favorable hotspot this season) is so, so dry.

Several low pressure systems are moving/are forecasted to move across Africa in the next week. They are already advecting a massive plume of SAL into the Atlantic.

18z GFS has more tropical activity over Sub-Saharan Africa than it has in the entire basin by August 21st

Models: The Eastern Atlantic:

If limited model support continues, I imagine this disturbance may become a lemon in the near future.

18z GFS develops the pictured wave into a tropical storm, which crosses the Atlantic and degenerates into an open wave in 3-4 days after formation. Shear values are quite low in the area, and vorticity has been increasing on all levels over the past several hours.

The TW that just exited Africa is looking interesting.

While these waves aren't forecasted to develop until potentially much later, they sure look impressive.

I still have hope for the southern and western trail of storms, but the current line in central mass looks like crumbling garbage.

Bret is looking pretty good right now. Outflow is limited, but it this convective burst is the coldest and longest-lasting for the past few days. A broad feeder band has been developing as well.

We're on the cusp

In addition GEFS ensembles are increasingly showing potential early-season activity. The MDR feature is also seeing support from the Euro.

Speaks for itself.

Our first phantom hit of the year!

Already looking meaty and the event is only just beginning. Discrete signatures up and down the breadth of the system.

From someone relatively new to tracking severe weather, would an extremely severe event/positive bust in the midwest/TV increase the chances for strong thunderstorms or potential tornadic activity here?

Unfortunately (or fortunately) daylight savings time is done. We're not getting back the early European again.

Here in Boston I'd be thrilled if we get over two inches of accumulation. This entire winter has had snow gone in a couple days thanks to back-end rain or sleet. I'm already onto the next system. If the EPS is any indication, this could be the strongest system since Jan 2022 of last year (with a 1993 or 1978 ceiling).

GFS has a system, just at a slightly later time frame and offshore. Regardless, there's huge potential with this pattern, and the models are clearly reflecting that

Long range GFS is showing a classic setup.