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tiger_deF

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Everything posted by tiger_deF

  1. tiger_deF
    First big gust of this entire event
  2. tiger_deF
    That map is to hour 18? Wow, still over a full day of goodies to come. Seeing family in Worcester and up here it’s been pithy, hoping that changes over the next 12 hours
  3. tiger_deF
    Very aesthetically pleasing storm
  4. tiger_deF
    Definitely looks to be intensifying at a decent clip, core looks way healthier than even a few hours ago
  5. tiger_deF
    Lots of mesoscale models(NAM, HRDPS, RGEM, etc) have been ramping up the short term intensity of the storm +24h tonight
  6. tiger_deF
    The fact that there's a hook and a day or more of slow movement complicates things. Some coastal, including some of our more notable storms (and tropical systems) we've gotten have been straight thumps that pas through quickly, where the main concern is shifts left and right. But here, for this system, there's huge model variation (for being a couple of days away) in the time and location of when (or if) it will make landfall all based on potential loops, stalls, and intensity.
  7. tiger_deF
    Contentwxguy (formerly cranky) has been doing some great nowcasting for any interested https://x.com/contentwxguy?s=21
  8. tiger_deF
    At least from my amateur perspective it spends more time over water while close to the coast and is slightly more amped up pressure and rainfall-wise despite being further south
  9. tiger_deF
    Models are trending a good bit stronger in the short term (HRRR out 14 hours is 5mb lower than a few runs ago) but of course a little more south/west. I think to max this out, either we stop the bleeding there while maintaining intensity, or hope that it is able to maintain intensity and occlude later, and move over SNE instead of burying itself in Long Island
  10. tiger_deF
    Now that it is semi locked in let's see if the intensity can ramp up some. If we're going to have a weekend of awful weather it should at least be interesting. A modelled 990mb is certainly a decent storm, especially with the high pressure gradient, but nothing crazy
  11. tiger_deF
    GFS is substantially stronger and farther to the west at 48H
  12. tiger_deF
    Give me that 975 mb ensemble member please
  13. tiger_deF
    18z GFS pretty much looks identical to 12z so far, maybe a tad more to the west?
  14. tiger_deF
    ICON moving a good amount East and slower to consolidate
  15. tiger_deF
    What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system? Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?
  16. tiger_deF
    IF we're looking for interesting weather over the next few weeks, best combination would be the 5 days of moisture train panning out, combined with a subtropical/somewhat tropical development off the SE coast coming north over the next week or two. Other than that we may be kvetching until the first proper nor'easter.
  17. tiger_deF
    She's doing her best to hang on
  18. tiger_deF
    Dollt}"" Despite the hostile conditions, and the fact that there's likely not a coherent LLC, post-Dolly sure is trying her best
  19. tiger_deF
    Rooting for this little guy (girl?) in the near future for sure. It’s almost certainly headed the way of the dodo but every now and then a storm is able to persist against a hostile environment. Currently she’s producing just barely enough convection to survive
  20. tiger_deF
    After a parade of struggling invests which have failed to materialize, it looks like the Atlantic, in this anemic season, may actually be capable of producing a potentially long-tracking hurricane! 96L is not currently a threat to land, and the vast majority of models show this system recurving out to well east of the CONUS
  21. tiger_deF
    If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish
  22. tiger_deF
    The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well
  23. tiger_deF
    This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?
  24. tiger_deF
    Come to papa
  25. tiger_deF
    I’m over it. It feels like there was a better chance of getting lightning from one of the blizzards last winter out east than this pithy severe season. Bring on the Fall!
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