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tiger_deF

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Everything posted by tiger_deF

  1. tiger_deF
    If we get any hurricanes out of the Pineapple Express of waves coming off of Africa, potential Dolly will likely end up being a sacrificial lamb to allow them to flourish
  2. tiger_deF
    The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well
  3. tiger_deF
    This is fascinating, especially given how sleepy the global models are out to the bell-ringing date, and the documented effects of Ninos shutting down late-season development. Perhaps it suggests a brief burst of high activity during the peak of the season?
  4. tiger_deF
    Come to papa
  5. tiger_deF
    I’m over it. It feels like there was a better chance of getting lightning from one of the blizzards last winter out east than this pithy severe season. Bring on the Fall!
  6. tiger_deF
    Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season.
  7. tiger_deF
    Let’s get a Pineapple Express of cutters dropping 2-5” (Wes Fri Sat) then a bigger coastal or two in the next few weeks. Pattern is ripe and we don’t have many weeks of winter left
  8. tiger_deF
    Some of the best rates yet in Arlington. Half an inch on the ground after just 20 minutes of shoveling. Praying that the newly formed band over BOS stays put for a few hours.
  9. tiger_deF
    Thinking of taking a strategic map, for BOS what’s an estimate for timing the peak of the storm? HRRR seems to think maybe in the ballpark of 8 AM?
  10. tiger_deF
    A few miles west of the city, we barely cracked an inch an hour ago. But the pace has picked up markedly the past half hour and the wind is howling
  11. tiger_deF
    I wasn't planning on pulling an all nighter but at this point I might as well
  12. tiger_deF
    I'm committed to staying up until the snow gets heavy because otherwise I'll be in a bad mood. Nowcast central
  13. tiger_deF
    Road still doesn't have any accumulation. Maybe 0.25" 3 miles NW of Boston
  14. tiger_deF
    Hasn’t even started snowing here yet
  15. tiger_deF
    Night ruined
  16. tiger_deF
    Pressure dropping at a steady 2mb/hr rate for the past 3 hours, went from 1000 to 996 according to SPC analysis. Around ~2mb deeper than the predicted timepoint
  17. tiger_deF
    Just a few last minute ticks North would make a world of difference in northern Greater Boston, holding out hope for some last minute ticks NAM and HRRR are showing a notable northern component later in the storms evolution that wasn't present earlier, this could be a good sign
  18. tiger_deF
    This is going to be a huge nowcast situation both for where the banding sets up and rots, but also the low pressure dynamics. All the higher end mesos and model runs yesterday show a stronger capture and slowdown, while the weaker ones shunt it east.
  19. tiger_deF
    That or they prepared the advisory maybe an hour ago. I can see it now.. in the studio high-fiving, when in comes Larry the intern. He’s running the distance, running for speed, busting his butt across campus with news of the rug of the century. One look at the koochie and papers are flying and people are yelling.
  20. tiger_deF
    I’m melting over anything less than 18”
  21. tiger_deF
    Way ahead of you. Vodka cran or a classic G&T?
  22. tiger_deF
    It's hard to fathom what winters like this are like for people who aren't weather enthusiasts. My good friend is pissed about the upcoming storm and is blowing a gasket over the prospect of shoveling out their spot, and I can't relate whatsoever. The amount of joy this hobby has brought me over the years is unreal. Learning about atmospheric science and forecasting, the excitement of tracking big storms, model watching and nowcasting - it's just so peak.
  23. tiger_deF
    Some of today’s runs have been showing a bit of a dry slot, especially as the storm really cranks up and starts shooting off to sea. That might come down to nowcasting, where it sets up and how early could be the difference between a blockbuster and just a large storm for some areas
  24. tiger_deF
    Oh yeah
  25. tiger_deF
    I already miss the frigid airmass we had for the late Jan snowstorm. One of the few times I've seen pre-storm flurries seriously accumulate. Get a low pressure system reeled to the west a little from what models are showing for this storm with that airmass in place and you immediately have a top 5 blockbuster. Plenty of cold air with this one but still solidly 10+ degrees warmer.
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