tiger_deF

NAM is notably West with with low at h72

Look, I couldn't agree more that he is a terrible met, I find his political positions reprehensible, and everything you said about Tucker Carlson was spot on. However, we humans are emotional creatures with finite lifespans, and therefore the deaths of anyone close to us, especially our parents, is devastating. There was no need to ruminate on the tragedy that befell him at all, and having it fresh in everyone's mind makes ripping him a new one seem tone-deaf at best, and callous at worst.

Since no one has actually posted the EPS ensemble mean, here's my artistic interpretation inspired by some of the takes I've heard EDIT: 2 posts late....

By this afternoon and evening NAM should finally be in range. We'll have to wait for tommorrow until they start producing full-event snowfall kuchies, but by this afternoon we'll be able to see the evolution of the storm regarding phasing

I doubt the CMC will verify, but look at the 10m winds on this sucker. Nearly looks like the wind profile of a bonafide Cat 2 hurricane

Come Sunday morning on the GFS and it's still snowing... if this was verbatim lots of eastern areas would see well over a day of accumulating snow... and look at that vort!

6z vs 12z

I've whipped up the entire immunology lab I work in with talk of a big storm on Friday/Saturday and now they are all independently hyped, if this busts then I'll be the cringey one

Is the NAM 84h generally considered to be more or less accurate than the 84h GFS?

Some of these EPS members get in the 940's, when's the last time we've had a winter system that deep?

Looks like the cards are setting up for another model battle, should be exciting to resolve this week!

Compared to the EPS members this would be a middle of the pack-lower end solution, but I'd take the GFS verbatim. Hopefully it holds this look, if the southern stream is just a little more cooperative then boom

If the central pressure of this system ends up near the lower floor of modelled pressures (let's say ~960's mb), what could we expect for maximum winds? Given the current track Cape Cod would probably get the worst of it, but I could see a storm of this magnitude having a fairly large fetch of winds.

Just a general meteorological question; I understand that closed low pressure systems tend to form from shortwaves that elongate troughs to the point of separating them from a synoptic ridge/trough pattern and "closes" them off, but how come these low pressure systems tend to intensify so much more, and appear more symmetrical, over water?

We just need to stop the bleeding right now

My worst fear is that we'll see every subsequent model run back off slightly until by Friday we have a middling event

The Falcons just can't catch a break...

Hopefully we see the GFS tick east and slightly deeper to both mitigate some of the mixing issues and keep the shield of precipitation nice and broad. Unfortunately this season the EURO has seemed to follow the GFS more than vice versa, so shifts in this evening's/tonight's runs would be excellent

I say we reach 100 pages by Wednesday, forget about in total

So what I'm hearing here is, unlike other synoptic setups of some past storms, is that the stronger the low the less tainting there could be?

People are paranoid because this is the kind of synoptic setup that has the potential to truly produce a historic beast... provided that all the factors (northern stream, southern stream, positioning of disturbances, high pressure interactions) line up just right. With models setting expectations this high this early, while the end result could end up being exactly what is modeled now, there will certainly be some movement with us being 5 days out. Getting 6 inches of snow as a max out of this system would leave the board majorly disappointed, while getting 6 inches out of a system that comes out of nowhere would be considered exciting.

If this thing ends up in NY/Philly like the abortion a few weeks ago the board is gonna lose it

Look at Mr. Ice Miser over here with snow left to melt

I wouldn't be surprised if, given the modeled strength of this upcoming system, if a good chunk of SNE got anywhere from a coating to 3" of snow just from the outer precipitation bands.

Likewise. Almost certainly will whiff, but if you took the NAM and bumped it 50 miles to the west that would be feet of snow for parts of SNE. Just an absolute conveyer belt of moisture