tiger_deF
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Everything posted by tiger_deF
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We are talking about half a foot plus of precipitation, so there is some similarity!
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Practically stalls right over SE MA
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~20 mb weaker 24 hours out, and ultimately a few mb stronger at landfall. Much farther West as well
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Live feed from GOES-16 streamed into the home of every weenie or bust
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So instead of coming closer to agreement ~3 days out, the EPS and GFES basically switch places. Wonderful!
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I still remember the days of "King Euro" How the mighty have fallen...
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Pretty epic bust potential in either direction for this. I could buy a weak, sheared TS crossing hundreds of miles offshore, a cat 2 landfall in SE NE, or anything in between.
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I'm interested in seeing if Henri has a symmetrical, concentrated wind profile, or one that is shallow with multiple wind maxima.
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For NY/LI/Mid-Atlantic? Yeah Sandy will almost certainly be worse. I think the localized impacts may end up being worse for the Cape and some of SE new England.
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Considering Henri is directly under 32kt of Northerly unfavorable shear, he isn't looking too bad this AM
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It's worth pointing out that the SST's off the coast are running 2-3+ degrees Celsius above normal, which could potentially be lifting the relative latitude where a cyclone is able to maintain tropical characteristics.
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Looking forwards to what recon finds today. IMO Henri was a hurricane all of yesterday, slightly weakened to a tropical storm overnight, and is now maintaining intensity in face of shear
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Looks to be trying to form a primative eyewall. Still not quite there, but whether it can hold off from shear and complete itself over the next 36 hours is crucial to it's eventual track.
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Henri looks to be trying to close off an eye. Still not quite there, but certainly indicative of a low end hurricane.
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The short-term strength of Henri will be crucial to the eventual track; will he continue to steadily intensify, or briefly weaken due to shear?
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I wouldn't be suprised if Henri is closing in on 995 mb right now
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I doubt we will have a clear idea of what Henri is going to do until we start getting regular recon data fed into the models, which should be the case by Friday
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HMON appears to split Henri into two competing systems, latching onto the southern lobe. Toss-worthy?
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Smart money is on OTS, but this is the strongest, closest signal I have seen for potential TC impacts since Isaias, and the trends have been very consistently West since a few days ago
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And we track... increasingly excited but I can't help but feel I will wake up tomorrow and it will appear to be headed definitively out to sea.
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Power outages are spiking in NNE Wisconsin
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Most large-scale volcanic eruptions result in so much detritus getting ejected into the air that it produces a notable decline in the average temperature due to increasing the amount of sunlight reflected. It's hypothesized that several major historical famines coincided with frosts and cold snaps from such events.
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Elsa is looking fierce and her appearance is improving as she crawls up the South
