tiger_deF
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Everything posted by tiger_deF
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Southern stream is looking nice
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Right in Arlington MA, near sommerville and Lexington and around 10 miles from Boston to the NW. Pretty close to the Jack zone for this storm hence why I've been posting so often
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New HRRR's are continuing the trend of slowing down slightly and deepening
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The area of 2-3" hour rates is actually astonishing EDIT- slower too
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HRRR is just ripping over BOX
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Last call for snow (and second ever snow map!) Again leaning on the more aggressive side of guidance but based on trends I think it is justified. Let me know what you think!
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Funny how bad the AccuWeather snow prediction is, two events ago they predicted 3-5 when we got a dusting, 4-6 when we got an inch and now they predict 2-4 right near the jack zone of the storm
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For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had?
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Looking at the hourly HRRR runs the low pressure is a little deeper and though it's bouncing around, a little farther north every time
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Nowcast time is coming up
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What altar do I have to sacrifice my first born to the weenie Gods to bring this to reality
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3m nam is just ripping over BOX
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Unless the system slows down the only way we can really increase the duration is if the core of the system trends more north and it performs the turn a little farther west, just some things to watch out for
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Well this weenie is headed to bed, hopefully we wake up to a nice widespread 8-12 thumping
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Oh true, guess I'm trying to see who's on late night crew now that the younguns are in bed Ironic because I'm 16 and easily in the bottom 1 percentile of age according to the survey
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Hey everyone, I'm running a poll to see the average age of the weenies on here, if you have a second just go in and click on the box with your age range. Thanks! https://www.strawpoll.me/17535754
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*puts away noose* not today old friend
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I hate to be that person as mentioned before but as unpredictable as models always are and despite the trends of the season this really is a situation (complicated setup, models showing multiple competing areas of vorticity, convection, and low pressure centers, plus fairly large model divergence and shifts so far) where we will likely still have a good bit of uncertainty by tomorrow evening. The fast speed and variable intensity won't help
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RGEM is more amped and much more organized, maybe a tiny tick north can't tell
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Let's all hope for a northwestward trend in the 00z suite of the GFS knowing my predictions and the season the it's gonna have the low off of Florida isn't it...
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The only real significant difference in the NAM run besides convective differences is organization. Compared to the 18z suite the system is a liiiitle farther north, deeper, more tightly wound, and has much more vorticity. New one first, old one last If we get some nice tics north over the next few runs with the same organization (unlikely IMO) we could be back in weenie mode.e vort.
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Honestly the low pressure center actually looks a farther north on the NAM but that might be my untrained eyes. Convective mess is definitely east and much weaker but I'm guessing that's a run anomaly
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NAM at h30 is more E, a little deeper and has better vorticity, but less convection it seems
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So far NAM deeper and aroung the same area
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I made my very first snow map ever! Comments and critiques would be appreciated, I based this off a more aggressive side of guidance because as long as it doesn't continue to tic SE I think that there will be some good banding.
