Steve25

Anyone else just have random moments where you think about that week in February 2010 and just how unprecedented it was and how it's something we will almost certainly never experience again in our lifetime? There are so many things I'd trade off in order to experience that week again.

Not until the GFS gives a green light

Parkville: 01/16- 3" Total- 10.5"

Do these snow totals get added to the official yearly totals? Or is it whatever's left on the ground at the end of the storm?

Genuinely unsure if I should shovel or not. Around 3 inches. If it's ultimately going to flip to rain and warm up significantly overnight, is it even necessary to shovel? Not sure what the morning is going to look like out there.

Enjoying every minute of the snow. I know the temp spike is inevitably coming, and that were all still itching for that big storm, but got to take in these experiences. It looks like a lot of you have today which is great! Only other thing, am I the only person that just refuses to measure in the middle of a storm? There's just something in me that makes it feel like cheating. I just have to wait until the end result.

At least it's going to be cold. I can always take comfort in that.

For me it has nothing to do with a jinx and everything to do with just being way too premature. I feel the storm threads should be there for when there's strong consensus between the models, or realistically around 3 days before a potential storm. With the way the posts fly in here, 3 days would give plenty of tracking and discussion. Like right now the discussion in here is that all possibilities are still very much on the table. Until that changes to something a little more concrete, I think the storm thread should hold off, just logically speaking.

What a weenie run. Massive storm and unreal cold! Fingers crossed!

The number of times the message in here has been that the long range looks bad and it turned out fine and vice versa is high. I wouldn't get all overwhelmed by the long range.

I can't be the only person in here that takes at least a little joy out of the fact that all the 95 cities are going to fail with this one. Seeing the mountains up to Buffalo get big snows is not anywhere near as painful as a storm skipping us over but then bombing out for Philly, NYC, and Boston.

Weather forecasting definitely is tough. The "wishcasters" and "hypecasters" make it look a lot tougher than it should be sometimes though. This storm is a perfect example. The models got a grip on this storm around Tuesday/Wednesday and really haven't changed course much at all. It's been plastered in front of us for several days, yet people have been clinging to the hope that favorable shifts would occur. By no means am I saying that's a bad thing. Things can always change, especially with the weather. The point is, one could've made a general "forecast" based on what the data was spitting out all the way back on Wednesday, and although not all details would be pinned down, you could've given a fairly accurate overview on what was coming. Getting twisted up between what looks like a realistic outcome and what you personally want can make any forecaster look bad. Good Meteorologists keep those two things seperate for the most part.

I know it's petty of me, but I am glad all the other 95 cities are going to get shafted as well.

*waves white flag for this storm* To the rest of you, hopefully my giving up will spark a big shift, but I personally can't continue to put myself through this false desperation hope

Best case scenario for a lot of the people biting their fingernails on this one is a front end thump of 4-6 inches and then dry slot. The models have been pretty consistent with the inland track for a while now. I know we're all just desperately hoping it'll randomly come substantially east but there appears to be no signs at all that that's even a reasonable hope for this one. No doom and gloom, just seeing what's being portrayed.

To those who understand the intricacies of all this and wouldn't mind giving me a little lesson. What is the driving force(or lack of a driving force) allowing the low to track right up over our area vs becoming a full blown coastal? With so many people just hoping it will come east, what specifically would need to happen differently with the setup currently being depicted to even allow for it to come substantially east, and is that even any bit realistic to hope for at this point?

Frankly, at this point I'm just hoping for as little heavy rain as possible around Baltimore. If it's possible to go snow/sleet to dry slot, all aboard!

I remember this but I don't recall specifics.

Is this technically what the model is saying the "end result" will be though? Or is this just the total snowfall from before the changeover, then you use your imagination to figure out how much of it gets wiped away by rain?

That snow would be followed and potentially washed away by very heavy rain though, am I right about that? Specifically near the Metros.

I agree with this. I love the cold nearly as much as the snow. Get as much of a thrill taking a hike on a bitter cold day as I do taking a snow walk. So if I had the choice between suppression allowing us to be cold dry vs amped forcing us into a sloppy mess and rain, I'm going suppressed.

To be fair, no one should be flipping out either in panic or celebration 4.5 days away. If we see the same exact results on the models for multiple days, then take things more seriously.

So in summary, the 12z suite puts a major Northeast/East Coast storm well in play for late weekend. Controls keep track inland which keeps significant snows west of the metros. Ensembles provide hope for a more coastal track. Too much time and stress left between now and Sunday.

It's a good thing the ensemble looks much better

I can't see details on Euro, but it looked like it had 3 consecutive near hits in a row, if I see it correctly.