Steve25

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly?

Agree. All I remember hearing in January was that the pattern will become much more favorable for cold and storms in the last week of January and into February, and frankly, that has panned out. A large portion of our region may not have gotten a major snow in that stretch, but the opportunities have been there. There were NO opportunities pretty much the whole month of January.

The bright side of not really getting any accumulations in Baltimore...no stress watching it quickly melt away this afternoon lol.

Yeah not going to happen here in Parkville for this one. Barely a slushy coating on cold surfaces. I didn't expect much of anything from this one, so no real disappointment. Happy for anyone getting accumulations of any inches.

Am I wrong to not really even take anything remotely seriously from the models for next week until tomorrow at the earliest? It just seems like they don't have a handle on things right now from beyond 3 days. The way the models flipped from no storm at all to one riding the coast 3 days prior to this one, it has me skeptical they don't have a solid grasp on our current pattern. Maybe I'm being too skeptical.

Came down heavy, laid a little coating. Lightened up, coating melted. Now heavy again, coating forming again. Parkville, just northeast of Baltimore City. Hoping it can CRANK for a few hours. Otherwise, accumulations will be scarce for me.

Odd. It's puking snow and I'm on the line of north Baltimore City.

Is it really "crazy" though? A few days ago it was supposed to be 50 degrees and Sunny on Sunday with this storm getting severely suppressed. It's been nearly 50 degrees for two days leading into this. Best case scenario was always for precip to be falling into 32-35 degree temps. The only possible way this was going to end up "significant" in any sense would be if the precip was very heavy in order to overcome to mediocre temperatures. CWG said 1-3 when the models we're pumping for 6-8. They said it was because the conditions need to work out nearly perfectly to get more than 1-3. I think they made the right call. They admit there's upside for any areas that get those very heavy rates, but if your reasonable expectations for this was anything more than a couple sloppy inches, I can't really understand that.

With that being said, there's still enough guidance that would stand to say their 1-3 inch prediction is too low, but they seem to be sticking to it. I'm assuming they're concerned about temperatures/how heavy the rates will actually be.

CWG must've seen that overnight shift coming. If it continues today, their forecast may be spot on.

Got the 2-6 inch event that was spread out over 3 days. Now we get a 2-6 inch event that is in and out in 6 hours! Let's enjoy them however they come.

Nam has temps topping out around 45 tomorrow. 38 around 1 AM when some light rain creeps in, then temps plunge as heavy precip moves in. Changes to snow and it rips from about 2-4 AM to 8-10 AM with temperatures hovering right around freezing. This is for the Baltimore area.

I always want the snow, don't get me wrong. Oh I know most hate it. I was just clarifying that not all hate it. The only winter weather I truly dislike is when there's no cold or wintry precipitation of any kind, like most of January of this winter. It'll be interesting to see if the Euro caves to the suppressed idea or if the GFS brings it closer for this Sunday.

Not true. I love cold and dry. Love taking hikes and checking to see how frozen the little bodies of water around here are during/after an extended bitter cold stretch.

Yeah, I'm just northeast of Baltimore. Got 3.5 inches Sunday. Just an additional coating during Monday afternoon, the heavier bursts didn't last long enough to have much impact. Then added an extra inch last night. So 4.5 in the end. I'll take it!

Temperatures not getting much above freezing all next week possibly? Storms or not, I'd be thrilled. I know a lot of you don't like cold and dry, but I love winter weeks like that! Looks like great hiking weather Monday!

So if I'm understanding correctly now the upper levels are cooling but the surface is warming. So heavier precip should fall in the form of sleet or eventually snow?

My roads all around my neighborhood are snow and ice combined. I'm glad I don't have to go anywhere today because I don't think my little Nissan could do it lol. Just north of Baltimore.

For just barely northeast of Baltimore City my expectations from this storm from a few days ago werr 2-5 inches from Sunday. Got 3.5, so good to go there. I did say 3-7 for the coastal impact. Feel like I might be able to scrape the low end of that range, but confidence is low. Some model guidance is keeping the hope alive.

Love this! Had a similar type of day. It's not what we'd dream of, but it is plenty to enjoy in many ways!

Parkville- Breezy, light snow. Got close to 3 inches today. The pixie dust snow was a bit disappointing today cutting down on accumulations, but I expected 2-5 today so wound up in that range. If I'm not misunderstood, we should still get light/moderate snow tomorrow afternoon, maybe a few more inches?

And just like that, first flurries- Parkville 21234

Blue skies breaking through the clouds in Baltimore

I had slim hopes for something big here in Baltimore, but I've put myself back into "Enjoy every flake mode." But I would love something I could shovel! About to do my walk for the onset!

As one of the few in here that actually believes in the NAM, especially within range, it's consistency is a major red flag. I know NO ONE wants to hear that though. I'd take the NAM in a street fight over the RGEM most days. I'm wrong a lot in life though, and I often put my confidence in the wrong things, so hopefully this is just another one of those times.